The latest defection and cross defection from the embattled New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and All Progressives Congress (APC) by the leader and members of the Kwankwasiyya Movement in Kano State have opened the North West for intense horse-trading, LEO SOBECHI reports.

It was a separation that was started by Senator Kawu Sumaila. Sumaila had shortly after losing the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial ticket to Architect Kabiru Gaya found political shelter in the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
  
But the ultimate political tributary created by incumbent Governor Kabir Abba Yusuf’s parting of ways with the supreme leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has left the ancient city of Kano very much polarised. And, just like Dr. Umar Ardo argued, the outcome of the 2027 general election in the state may end up in a split, such that the two major political parties, the APC and the main opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC), could have the head or tail each.
 
Although Ardo, a co-convener of the League of Northern Democrats (LND) posited that Kano has always played oppositional politics, the 2027 scenario promises to present a dicey contest that could verge either on national opposition with a domestic incumbency.
  
When Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, as incumbent governor, parted ways with Senator Kwankwaso, watchers of Kano politics knew that it was but a question of time before the Giwa of Miller Road (Kwankwaso) bounces back into prominent political relevance. In the aftermath of the political estrangement, the current Governor, Abba Yusuf, displayed unalloyed loyalty to the Kwankwasiyya leader, even to the extent of relinquishing a possible senatorial run for the godfather. That Yusuf did not become governor in 2019, when Ganduje was seeking a re-election, was partly due to the influence of federal might and procedural confusion. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the governorship election inclusive in a controversial manner, even as the State Police Commissioner was transferred out of Kano before the re-run poll.
  
Kano, blessed with frenetic youths that are mostly politically aware, has always served as the wind vane to show the political direction for the North West geopolitical zone – a reputation the state built for itself even before Jigawa State was carved out of it.
 
Feelers from the state show that while the gubernatorial poll may most likely go the way of APC based on Governor Yusuf’s track record of performance and leadership style, the ADC would definitely reap bountiful ballots from the anti-APC sentiments among the masses caused by sheer misreading of the Federal Government’s policies.
  
However, some APC supporters in the state give the impression that after repeated divisions among his battalion of supporters, Kwankwaso has become more of a general without troops. If that impression was what the defection of eight members of the House of Representatives had intended to buttress, it would be seen, when the election holds, who holds the greater of the stake to Kano votes. Meanwhile, die-hard members of the Kwankwasiyya Movement maintain that the federal lawmakers that parted ways with NNPP after Kwankwaso identified with the coalition opposition ADC are featherweight politicians.
  

The eight former NNPP lawmakers that chose APC instead of ADC were led by the Deputy Minority Leader, Aliu Madaki, representing Dala federal constituency. They included: Ghali Mustapha (Ajingi/Albasu/Gaya Federal Constituency), Shehu Bello (Fagge Federal Constituency), Dankawu Idris (Kumbotso Federal Constituency), Hussain Hassan Shehu (Nassarawa Federal Constituency), Rabiu Yusuf (Sumaila/Takai Federal Constituency), Garba Chiroma (Gezawa/Gabasawa Federal Constituency), Ibrahim Mohammed (Gwale Federal Constituency) and Tijjani Jobe (Tofa/Dawakin-Tofa/Rimingado Federal Constituency).
  
There was a certain streak of subdued relief on the face of the Speaker, Tajudeen Abbas, while he announced the defection of the eight during plenary. While congratulating them for taking “the bold and strategic decision to join the largest political party in Africa, the APC,” the Speaker stated that their defection further strengthens APC’s growing influence in Kano State.
  
Abbas declared: “This remarkable move reinforces our collective commitment to delivering good governance and impactful representation to the people. With the addition of these grassroots, experienced and dedicated lawmakers, the APC is well-positioned to consolidate its leadership in Kano State and, by the grace of Almighty God, achieve victory in the forthcoming general election.”
  
In their individual letters to the House, the lawmakers explained that they decided to leave the NNPP due to internal wrangling within the party. Perhaps, in a bid to celebrate the massive haul of defectors of divorcees from the Kwankwasiyya fold, Governor Yusuf, Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin and former APC national chairman, Ganduje, turned up at the National Assembly.
  
Taking to his Facebook handle, Jibrin exulted in the decampment. He wrote: “Today, I joined the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Abbas Tajudeen; the Executive Governor of Kano State, Engr. Abba Kabir Yusuf, the immediate past National Chairman of our party, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and others to formally receive eight members of the House of Representatives, who defected from the NNPP to the APC.”
 
Jibrin had shelved his gubernatorial ambition in order to welcome Governor Yusuf into the APC fold. Former Governor Ganduje, who brokered that understanding, made a similar sacrifice of his senatorial aspiration to ensure that the APC remains united and formidable in Kano State.

Operation (Un)follow Your Leader
The political options in Kano are not broad. Politicians were left to choose whether to (un)follow Kwankwaso and follow Yusuf or vice versa.
 
A former Director of Planning, Research and Statistics (DPRS) in the Documentation Directorate of Government House, Adamu Mohammed Nababa, said he decided to join Governor Yusuf in the APC, stressing that he refrained from joining NNPP mainly because of Kwankwaso’s brand of politics.
  
“On the eve of the closing of the registration, I registered and all is well for now. I am not contesting for anything, because it is almost late; all aspirants have already been identified and it won’t be so easy for me for now. I am fully committed to supporting Governor Abba,” he stated.
  
Nababa said many residents of Kano liked how things turned out in the state’s politics, stressing that in reality, Kwankwaso does not have the structure to unseat the governor, because the election of governor in the state depends on the structure available to the gladiators.
  
“It also depends on the kind of resources at your disposal. And these two things are the major problems for Kwankwaso. No matter how much he tries, he will of course make it a bit more difficult. But with the way things are on ground, there is no doubt that the threat to the seat of governor is not all that simple. But he definitely will give a big fight,” he added.
 
With the prospects of the Kwankwasiyya leader becoming a presidential running mate to either Peter Obi or Rotimi Amaechi, it is hard to hazard a guess on how the average Kano voter will respond to the ADC contender and President Tinubu on the APC ballot.
  
But Nababa expressed the view that after the 2023 elections, it became apparent to every Kano indigene that the former NNPP presidential flag bearer does not have what it takes to win the presidential poll.
  
“Well, you see, for us here, we know Kwankwaso doesn’t have any chance in the presidential race. But he only tries to play a game. Those who know him very well, know he plays with people’s psychology. He plays with the kind of things he will create, especially outside Kano State. Nobody will believe that he is Alpha and Omega. You understand? Because of one thing or the other. But for now, there is no reliable ally around him.”
  
Nababa and other residents still believe that Governor Yusuf was about the best political acolyte that Kwankwaso had. According to Nababa, “if Abba can go and join the APC and team up with President Tinubu’s second term aspiration, there is nothing he can do about it.
 
“Whether he picks (Nasir Yusuf) Gawuna or anyone for that matter, as governorship candidate, Kwankwaso will not be able to defeat Abba. This we are sure of. It is not going to work. And for whatever happens at the presidential level, that one is just a political game. He is just trying to get relevance.
 
“He always wants to bargain with his presidential ambition; that is all. You can just imagine somebody in a national election, getting 1,400,000 votes across 36 states, you know; it is a joke. And, he will not be able to get 1,000,000 now if he contests again, because even that 1,400,000 he got, the whole of 1,100,000 came from Kano State alone.”

Battle Ground
No matter how anybody evaluates the unfolding Kano political scenario, the state retains its stature as a battle ground. Considering the minor irritations within the state chapter of the APC, where Ganduje and Barau are on the lookout on how to drive in the dagger of blackmail or frustration against the other for national prominence, or where Kawu Sumaila and Ado Doguwa have been in a running battle, how the party would forge a solid team remains to be seen.
  
All the lawmakers desire to have their seats back, but a lot depends on how the talakwas decide to vote. Even with the legendary federal might and power of incumbency, the Kano electorate have been known to torpedo extraneous forces.
  
It is not known yet how the crisis in ADC would turn out, but the other two contending parties – PDP and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) – may have to work twice as hard to displace Governor Yusuf and the APC in the state.
  
Standing on the beleaguered PDP platform, former governor Ibrahim Shekarau has not taken a decision to move either to ADC or APC. Given the loss of face that attended his exit from NNPP, it does not seem likely that Shekarau would like to join a man he denied a second term as governor in 2003 on the ADC coalition.
 
It was gathered that but for the Kwankwasiyya Movement, which turned out as Kwankwaso’s bragging right alongside its then lone governor, Shekarau was among the northern candidates being considered as running mate for a Southern Christian. Shekarau and Aminu Wali seem to be marooned by PDP’s quagmire.

Import For Other Kadastian States
Records show that Kano, Kaduna, Katsina and Kebbi States usually toe along similar political lines. The recent political volcanic eruption in Kano echoes in those neighbouring states. For instance, in the event that President Tinubu decides to take a new presidential running mate, Governor Nasiru Idris of Kebbi may easily feel as fish out of water, because as a core Shettima ally, such a change would open the governor’s flanks for Senator Adamu Aliero and others to shrink the APC space for him.  
 
In nearby Kaduna State, the travails of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai is said to be winning a measure of public sympathy for him. But to what extent that sympathy could affect APC and Governor Uba Sani’s vote remains a subject of conjecture. In Katsina, despite Governor Dikko Rada’s exploits in governance, the APC still has a lot of work to do.
  
No doubt, the security establishment’s restraint around El-Rufai has done much to slow down the mobilisation of the masses for ADC and against APC in the zone. With the hearing for his bail fixed for April 14, when the ADC scheduled its convention, it could be said that the opposition has lost a utility player and striker in the North West and at the national level.