2027: Tracking the underground plot for Abdulrasaq’s successor by Kwara APC, PDP

Choosing the right candidate may be the right elixir for singing the victory song in the 2027 governorship election in Kwara State. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) appears more solid in this respect but there are pockets of disagreement among members of the party about the choice being touted for the plum position.

For the most visible opposition party in the state, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), it is not yet time to relax, as sources have disclosed that more interested aspirants are on a daily basis coming out for the sole ticket. The leader of the PDP in the state, who was also a former governor and an ex-President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, has allegedly urged the aspirants to be prepared for a primary election as he has “no anointed candidate” among them.

Topmost on the list are former speaker of the state House of Assembly, who was also a member of the House of Representatives (Ilorin South /East Federal Constituency), Prof. Ali Ahmad; a philanthropist, Kale Kawu and a former Commissioner for Agriculture and former House of Representatives member, Moshood Mustapha.

A former Finance Commissioner, Kamaldeen Ajibade, is also listed among the aspirants, just as the former candidate of the party in the last governorship polls, AbdulRasak Atunwa, is also said to be nursing a second bid on the slot.

According to the party chairman in the state, Tunde Mohammed, the growing list of aspirants is the beauty of the party.

“It is open for all irrespective of tribe, sex or religion. We are not supporting any aspirant; our support will only go to one person at the end of the day.

“The party members will by themselves decide on who to support. But even as we speak now, we don’t know of any of them officially. We have our time table, when it is time, they will come out to obtain forms and that is the time we will know who they are.”

Inner sources within the party said the leadership had “learnt lessons” from their previous errors of imposing candidates on the party. This approach had allegedly led to the poor performance of such candidates in the past elections. Party faithful, especially the eligible voters among them, were alleged to have cast protest votes against such candidates.

But despite this transparent approach by leaders of the party, the envisaged post primary crises that may arise may shred into pieces the unity of the party during the polls. The man with the greatest headache on who to support for the slot is Saraki. All eyes are on him and all the aspirants believe that he would lend his support to them.

Saraki’s present style of supporting candidates may not be radically different from the method used for several years by his late father, Abubakar Olusola Saraki. The last of such episode was when the late Mohammed Alabi Lawal and Alhaji Sha’aba Lafiaji were the favourable aspirants for the post ahead of 1999 election in Kwara. Their posters littered strategic streets in Ilorin the state capital until the eve of the “great announcement.”

Baba Saraki would not accept shadow election in whatever form but would instead opt for a consensus candidate. The event was in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The supporters of both Lawal and Lafiaji were very optimistic of Saraki’s love for their aspirants until Lawal eventually emerged the anointed candidate of the now defunct All People’s Party (APP) in the eleventh hour to the election.

However, one of Saraki’s aides, who spoke under the condition of anonymity, said: “The present political era is different from the time of ‘Oloye’ (the political appellation the older Saraki was known among his followers). For now, all the aspirants must fend for themselves and warm themselves to the hearts of the members of the party. ‘Oga’ (Saraki) has decided not to support anyone for now. Let the members decide on who they want. At that level, all of us will begin to work for him.”

For a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kwara State, Opeyemi Olabanji, the most ideal thing for any serious minded political party in the state is to shift the governorship from Kwara Central to the other two geo-political zones.

Olabanji said:  “Kwara Central will by 2027 have finished its own tenure. Then the right thing would just be to beam the searchlight for the successor of AbdulRasaq on either the Kwara South or North. Anything short of this would be unfair and be an exercise in futility.

“The big issue for consideration here is that the governor has not publicly announced any one as his successor. We should just allow the governor to continue to do his work. We still have about one and a half years until the election. But I maintain my position on the fact that the central district has had its fair share of the governorship seat; let it shift to another zone this time around.”

Kwara South Senatorial District has seven local councils out of the 16 in the state. The Central has four while the North has five. But in terms of voting population, Ilorin West from the Central has the largest population.  Therefore, an alliance between the North and the South may not result in automatic victory if the Central is totally excluded.

For Chief Wole Oke, the ‘Jagunmolu’ of Shao, a town in Moro Local Council of Kwara North Senatorial District, “it is just right that the Kwara North should produce the next governor after the incumbent. As an APC chieftain, who is from Moro Local Council in Kwara North Senatorial District, we have been sidelined all these years. ”

He added: “Mohammed Alabi Lawal, Bukola Saraki and AbdulRahaman AbdulRasaq, by the year 2027, would have spent a total of 20 years as governors. These individuals are from Kwara Central. From the South, we have had AbdulFatah Funso Ahmed, who spent eight years in the saddle as governor. But in the North, Sha’ba Lafiaji spent some two years before the junta truncated his reign.  It is therefore proper for the North to, at this period, have a taste of the governorship position.

“In a democracy, persons with required qualifications could vie for whatever positions but in a sane society where justice is the order of the day, it is just right for Kwara North to be the next governor of the state. Besides, it will be most irreligious of anybody in Kwara Central to contest for the post again, at least for now.  If we are not atheists, we should do justice in all things including the next election. We are doing our homework and very soon people will know what we are up to.”

For AbdulRaoof Bello, an APC chieftain from Omupo, a linear settlement in Ifelodun Local Council, Kwara South Senatorial District of the state, the right choice of candidate for the 2027 election would be the determining factor for victory. Bello, a former spokesman for the defunct All People’s Party (APP) in Kwara, warned that for political reasons, it would be apt and proper for the APC to make “the right choice” to avoid “unnecessary error” during the polls.

He noted: “If we allow our greatest rival, the PDP to beat us to the right choice, then we should forget about victory in the election. This is keen, as it is the foundation of success in any election. The governor, our leader, and other officials of the party are working round the clock to ensure that the right choice is m ade at the end of the day.”

However, it was gathered that “federal might” may play a role in deciding who the APC will give the ticket.
According to sources, the Presidency may be looking at the direction of the Attorney General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN) for the ticket. Fagbemi, a prince from Ijagbo, in Oyun Local Council of the state, is said to be in the good books of President Bola Tinubu and could be handed the ticket of the APC.

But an aide of Fagbemi, who craved anonymity, described the speculation as an “unfounded rumour of  great distraction.”

“Our boss has an assignment at hand and that is his focus at all times. I don’t know where this is coming from right now but I can assure you that the minister is not aware of it. People should be focused on the job at hand and not on speculations,” the aide added.

Nevertheless, Oke stated that “the presidency can only do justice by supporting the right candidate. Besides, I don’t think our learned brother would be interested in that position, at least for now.”

Meanwhile, the history of the state indicates that no deputy governor had been considered fit to succeed his boss.

Chief Simeon Sayomi was the deputy to Lawal. Joel Afolabi Ogundeji was deputy to Saraki while Elder Peter Shikira was deputy during the Ahmed administration. Although the trio are now of blessed memories, none of them was considered fit to succeed their principals. It is therefore not surprising to discover that the radar of a likely successor to the incumbent governor is not tilting to the side of Elder Kayode Alabi, his deputy.

A Professor of Political Science at the University of Ilorin criticised the development, saying such would not engender continuity of ideologies and growth required of a developing democracy like Nigeria’s.

The professor, who spoke under anonymity, noted: “The deputy governor is also an acting governor of a state. He has enough exposure and experience to govern. If such a person is allowed to be governor, through available democratic means, it will be good for the system. Going for an entirely new person may constitute a clog in the wheel of governance.”

For the APC Chairman in the state, Prince Sunday Fagbemi, victory in the 2027 elections would be divinely decided through the will of the majority. Fagbemi believes his party has an advantage over its rivals in this regard.

He said:  “We are in charge of the presidency; we are in control of the governorship in the state, the existing three senatorial seats, six House of Representatives seats, 23 or 24 House of Assembly seats. Sixteen chairmen of the 16 local councils of the state are all under the control of the APC. Our performance ratio is higher and the voters are aware of this. We are still working round the clock to ensure that the real benefits of democracy get to all in the state at all levels of governance. In fact, this has been the desire and will of our amiable governor for the entire people of the state. By the grace of God, we shall be victorious again.”

The totality of these unfolding trends in the state would determine where the pendulum of victory will eventually swing in the year 2027 polls. But choosing the right candidate will play a major role in this regard.