Although neither Governor Gowin Obaseki nor Senator Adams Oshiomhole is on the ballot in today’s governorship election in Edo State, the poll is a proxy war between the duo, whose hitherto relationship as political godfather and godson got soured about four years ago due to governance disagreements and personal conflicts, particularly over issues like candidate selection and party loyalty, ADAMU ABUH writes.
There is apprehension in Edo State as a former governor of the state, Senator Adams Oshiomhole, and his successor, Governor Godwin Obaseki, rekindle their rivalry for the control of power in the state. Although neither of them will be on the ballot, the election is viewed as a proxy war between the duo with Oshiomhole backing the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Sen. Monday Okpebholo while Obaseki is supporting the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Mr. Asue Ighodalo.
Oshiomhole was instrumental in Obaseki’s rise to power in 2016. However, their relationship soured due to governance disagreements and personal conflicts, particularly over issues like candidate selection and party loyalty. This estrangement has since led to a fierce contest between them for political dominance in Edo State.
Unlike the 2020 governorship election where Obaseki successfully wrestled Oshiomhole to the ground to secure a second term mandate, the outcome of the duel between the gladiators would be determined by the changes and dynamics in the political terrain in the country.
Both Okpebholo and Ighodalo, who are among the 17 candidates that would be on the ballot at the poll, hail from the Edo Central Senatorial District, and there appears to be a consensus among the majority of the political elite in the state to cede power to the zone.
In today’s election, the pedigrees of the candidates are hardly the issue. It is more or less the battle of a godfather and his godson who feels he has within the last eight years gathered enough experience and influence to assume the role of a godfather too.
In the Etsako territory, there is little doubt that Oshiomhole, now representing the Edo North Senatorial District in the National Assembly, will have the upper hand while in the Edo Central zone, the race is too close to call.
In the purely Bini speaking enclave of Edo South, the election promises to be a test of the level of acceptability of Obaseki’s candidate in an area where the opposition Labour Party (LP) gained traction at the expense of both the APC and PDP in the 2023 general election. The LP candidate, Osaigbovo Akpata, could split the votes there.
Obaseki is known for his penchant to dictate the pace. The manner by which he outwitted and stalled the attempt by Oshiomhole to stop his re-election bid in the 2020 poll turned him into a hero of some sorts. He, indeed, saw himself as a giant killer, and may still feel he could move the state in whatever direction that suits him.
Now fighting the political battle of his life, he is throwing everything into the race to maintain his hold on the Edo political landscape just as Oshiomhole who fought tooth and nail to install him in the 2016 governorship poll as his successor has sworn that he would stop at nothing in taking his pound of flesh.
The travails of Obaseki prior to the 2020 poll sold him to the majority of the electorate as the underdog who deserves their sympathy after he was disqualified from the APC primaries largely due to Oshiomhole’s influence as the party’s national chairman at the time. This led Obaseki to defect to the PDP, where he secured the nomination and ultimately won the poll against Oshiomhole’s favoured candidate, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu. This defeat was a major blow to Oshiomhole’s political dynasty in the state.
Public sentiments and campaign dynamics actually swung the pendulum in Obaseki’s favour at the time. The slogan “Edo no be Lagos” resonated with voters; emphasising the need for the local people to determine those that should govern them as against external influence masterminded by the APC national leader at the time, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, also considered as Oshiomhole’s political godfather.
Obaseki’s campaign capitalised on this sentiment, coupled with the treacherous activities of the Progressives Governors Forum (PGF), who felt let down that their last ditch effort to prevail on President Muhammadu Buhari to allow Obaseki fly the APC ticket failed.
Oshiomhole paid dearly in the power play that ensued thereafter as Obaseki not only orchestrated his suspension by his ward as an APC member; he was also removed as the national chairman of the party.
Obaseki’s Deputy, Philip Shaibu, who incidentally has now fallen apart with him, had stated that they were fighting godfathers in the same way Oshiomhole did to the late Chief Tony Anenih during his tenure as governor of the state.
There is no doubt that Obaseki has lost some grounds politically since then. The PDP’s performance in the 2023 general election, where it lost all three senatorial seats, is a pointer. Shaibu, who is considered as a valuable ally from Edo North that could swing valuable votes for Ighodalo, has not only reconciled with Oshiomhole but is also working assiduously for Okpebholo’s victory.
The tables have also changed as key chieftains of the PDP, who worked in unison for Obaseki’s victory in 2020, are now in disarray due to distrust for one another. Recently, the chairman of the Edo State chapter of the party, Mr. Anthony Aziegbemhin, called on the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, to redeploy the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) of the state, Dr. Anugbum Onuoha, saying he is a cousin to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, who is a card carrying member of the party.
While highlighting the tie between the REC and Wike, Aziegbemhin alleged that the duo had perfected the strategy to sabotage Ighodalo in the election.
Aziegbemhin, in a protest letter to the INEC Chairman, claimed that the recruitment of the Supervising Presiding Officers (SPOs) for the election had been compromised.
“The ties between these two are too close to ignore, as they share familiarities and are also close associates. To be clear, the relationship between the two is outlined below:
“The said Edo REC is a cousin to the Minister of the FCT, Mr. Wike. He also served as a former Commissioner and Special Adviser for Lands, Survey and Housing to Mr. Wike during his tenure as Rivers governor,’’ the letter reads in part.
Wike, who admitted that Obaseki made overtures to him to help out, distanced himself from any act that could sway the outcome of the election in Okpebholo’s favour.
“When Obaseki brought Ighodalo to my house two times to support him, they did not know the REC is my cousin. It is just today that they know that he (Onuoha) is my cousin. He was posted to Edo more than one year ago. That is the problem I have with this country,” he said while reacting to the issue on Channels Television.
“I told them (Obaseki and Ighodalo) when they came to see me that I’m not going to support Ighodalo. Neither am I going to support anybody. The one I supported you never helped anything but rather I was insulted. For accusing my first cousin, they have made a mistake. You know why? I was thinking I am strong; you are meeting a rock (Onuoha).”
With claims that no fewer than a dozen of PDP leaders, including the Chairman of Esan West Local Government Area, Collins Aigbogun, are being kept in the dungeons on the orders of the APC, the party has accused security agents of working in cahoots with the APC to rig the election.
Nevertheless, the PDP, at the grand finale of its campaign, which was attended by former Vice president Atiku Abubakar alongside 12 governors, remains undaunted as it has sworn to resist any attempt to compromise the outcome of the poll.
Obaseki particularly described the election as an existential threat, stating, “this election is do or die. If they do, we will die.” PDP’s National Chairman, Alhaji Umar Iliya Damagun, who spoke in the same vein, stated: “You have to kill or arrest all of us if you want to take this state. You may have gangs, but we have God. To INEC, we don’t want midnight result announcements. It is not a threat, but we will defend our votes with our blood.”
The influence of Obaseki’s foot soldiers and what the huge resources available to him can do for him and Ighodalo will play a major role in deciding how things turn out today. Oshiomhole, who is in good stead to swing the pendulum to his side, is counting on his party, which is much more united and formidable when compared with the situation in the 2020 election.
Led by Vice President Kashim Shettima and the 21-member Progressives Governors Forum led by Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, the APC literarily shut down Benin City, the Edo State capital, to mobilise support for Okpebholo while rounding up its campaign.
With President Tinubu at the helm, it’s also unlikely the “Edo North no be Lagos” mantra would be as impactful and enough to galvanise local sentiments against the APC, Oshiomhole and Okpebholo this time around.
Oshiomhole, who picked his pieces after his removal as APC national chairman, regained his political relevance following his election to represent Edo North in the National Assembly. With his pick, Dennis Idahosa, as the running mate of Okpebholo, he has taken the onerous task of canvassing for votes for the party.
As the poster boy of the campaign trail, he has dismissed talks that Okpebholo lacks the capacity to administer the state since he is not known to have spoken good English publicly. Okpebholo had at an interactive session with reporters explained why he chose not to be as vocal as expected of him during the rallies.
“I really do not need big grammar to solve the problem of Edo. I already know what to do and I need to be active to achieve it. Today, Edo State is receiving N11 billion in monthly allocation with the debt profile put at N135 billion, thereby mortgaging the future of our children.
“At this point, what Edo really needs is a panel beater. I’m here to panel beat the state where there will be no thuggery, where the Bendel Brewery will work, where our roads will be fixed, where our children will have a functional educational system with teachers in our classrooms. I am coming as a servant leader and I will introduce practical leadership and govern with empathy as well as love for the people.”
