APC, PDP Challenge Still At Play

After Kogi and Bayelsa, two other states where the governorship elections would continue to echo what happened in 2015 are Edo and Ondo. Although contiguous, the two states are divided into opposing political platforms. While Edo moved from Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and All Progressives Congress (APC), Ondo moved from Alliance for Democracy (AD) to PDP/Labour Party and PDP.

With the coming on board of two big platforms, it would therefore be interesting to know how voters in the two states would tilt their preferences. And given the fact that their incumbent chief executives are loud and visible characters in national politics, it is therefore to be seen how they would influence the eventual outcome of the exercise in their domains.

The major issue therefore as projections for the coming polls engage national discourse, is would the outcome of the elections play out as referendums on the eight year-tenures of Governors Adams Oshiomhole and Olusegun Mimiko. How easy or challenging the governors’ ambition to prop up their preferred successors would also be a pointer to the political maturity of the voters and popularity of the governors.

ONDO: Iroko Versus Progressive Contenders
The build up to the race for Alagbaka Government House, has begun. One question to which observers would want answers is whether the state will remain like its younger sister, Ekiti, in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Furthermore, the governorship election would double as a fitting reward or reprimand for the outgoing governor, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, depending on how the voters view his eight years in office as well as his comportment towards the processes of choosing his successor.

To some extent, the gubernatorial election in the state would also give a glimpse as to the acceptability or estimation of the policies, programmes and performance of the All Progressives Congress (APC) administration.

Knowing what stiff challenges lie ahead, especially the desire of his traditional rivals now in the APC to thwart his succession plan, Mimiko is keeping a level head about his calculations. He seems to have designed a double lane approach to the 2016 governorship so as not to put all his eggs in one basket. The fact that his loyalist and former National Secretary of Labour Party (LP), Kayode Ajulo, remained behind in the party after the governor moved over to the Umbrella, may be a pointer to the possibility that Mimiko may have settled it in his mind to have a three horse race, where he would be banking on two candidates. The lawyer is from Ifira-Akoko

In an interaction with journalists last year, Mrs. Jumoke Anifowose, the daughter of first civilian governor of old Ondo State, late Chief Adekunle Ajasin, expressed optimism that with General Muhammadu Buhari as the president, “my party will perform to satisfy the needs of Nigerians and that will help me to win the hearts of Ondo State citizens and I will win both the primary and the gubernatorial election”. She noted that “if the party at the centre is doing very well, it will brighten the chances of APC in Ondo State.” All these factors would add up to make this year’s Ondo governorship poll very interesting. But the geopolitical and other considerations cannot be discounted.

For instance, Ondo south is angling to produce the next governor after Iroko. In 1999, Mimiko, who hails from Ondo Cenral, contested the governorship ticket against Chief Adebayo Adefarati, from the northern senatorial district on the AD platform. Adefarati won the governorship election eventually. In 2003 the agitation for powershift continued. Governor Olusegun Agagu from the south displaced Adefarati and the AD. Agagu, as Obasanjo’s shadow ran on the PDP platform. Mimiko was appointed the Secretary to the State Government (SSG) by Dr. Agagu. It was from the position of SSG that then President Obasanjo made him the Minister of Housing and Urban Development. Having been nurtured and equipped further by those positions, in 2007, Dr. Mimiko, entered the contest for the governorship seat. But the space offered by the PDP platform was too constricted for him. He moved over to little-known Labour Party. To strike a balance in the geopolitical considerations, Mimiko selected his running mate, Alhaji Ali Olanusi, who was later to be impeached, from the northern part of the state. Alhaji Lasisi Oluboyo became substitute.

The 2007 governorship election, replete with irregularities, tested Mimiko’s will power. After nearly two years of legal fireworks, the Appeal Court sacked Agagu and restored the mandate to Mimiko. The governor had to reassert his supremacy in 2012 when he beat the governorship candidates of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and PDP, Chief Rotimi Akeredolu and Olusola Oke, to clinch his second term in office.

Eight years on the saddle, the state has turned full circle with new political realities emerging. There have been defections and shifting alliances. In the buildup to the 2015 general elections, Governor Mimiko returned to PDP in a strategic move to shore up support for then President Jonathan. Some of the heavyweights he met in PDP defected to the newly formed APC. Some of these decampees including Oke, who contested the 2012 governorship and the former Speaker of the State Assembly, Victor Olabimtan; would now band up to challenge whoever Mimiko would throw up on the PDP’s platform in the forthcoming governorship election.

As things stand, it is most likely that majority of aspirants would come from Ondo north. The list would also include Senator Ajayi Borofice and ACN’s flag bearer in the last governorship, Chief Akeredolu (SAN). Both Borofice and Olabimtan are from Akoko South West while Akeredolu is from Owo local government council. It is left to be seen how Borofice and Akeredolu, who sees himself as governor in waiting; would settle the issue of who flies the APC flag. The expected crowd of aspirants on the APC platform would definitely present its own challenges.

The recent abduction of Olabintan, two days after he declared his interest in the governorship, may be a signal of what to expect from the APC corner. Before his defection to APC, the former Speaker was in PDP and actually took part in the governorship nomination process in 2012.  He was kidnapped on his way to Abuja from Akure, the state capital.

Knowing what stiff challenges lie ahead, especially the desire of his traditional rivals now in the APC to thwart his succession plan, Mimiko is keeping a level head about his calculations. He seems to have designed a double lane approach to the 2016 governorship so as not to put all his eggs in one basket.

The fact that his loyalist and former National Secretary of Labour Party (LP), Kayode Ajulo, remained behind in the party after the governor moved over to the Umbrella, may be a pointer to the possibility that Mimiko may have settled it in his mind to have a three horse race, where he would be banking on two candidates. The lawyer is from Ifira-Akoko.

How Mimiko plays his card during the nomination would determine how far his succession plan would pan out. Then the issue of power rotation to the north, who the candidates are, as well as those pushing their governorship, would also come into play. As voters judge Mimiko, the APC candidates would bear the burden or benefit of the public perception of the party at the national level. Recent experience in the nomination process of APC in Bayelsa shows that there may be attempts at imposition of a governorship candidate, which may spark controversies and divide the party. The party may decide to reward a preferred candidate for his/her long term loyalty and investment in the party and make other candidates to sign a pact of non-defection after the primaries.

The nature of the Ondo governorship would be seen during the primary elections in the major political parties, especially PDP and APC. But the record of achievements by the Mimiko administration may not be easily written off. The people may defer to him and decide to consolidate on the path of progress by voting PDP. APC, no matter who the candidate may be would work extra hard to convince the people that they are providing a better alternative. More than any other administration in the South West, Governor Olusegun Mimiko, has approximated the legendary Pa Awo legacies in the area of education and affordable healthcare. The governor succeeded in leaving the sunshine state at the pinnacle of sio-economic development with prodigious room for sustainability.

EDO: Comrade Comes To Judgment
Edo State Governor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, has made himself the central issue of the forthcoming governorship election in the state. The comrade governor has not hidden his desire to anoint a successor and replace the legendary Chief Tony Anenih as the political godfather of the ancient Kingdom.

No sooner had his party, APC, displaced PDP in the March 28, 2015 presidential election than Oshiomhole started stomping about as if he was the sole architect of the presidential victory. From then on he started waging verbal wars against those he perceived as possible stumbling blocks to his ambition of planting a successor as Edo State Governor. The governor is putting everything into the project in the belief that his political future depends on his ability to give Edo people a governor of his own choosing.
It is the present machinations of the governor more than his track record of achievements in office that would greatly colour the
governorship election in the state. Oshiomhole crossed over from his trade union activism to contest the governorship in 2007. Entering at a time of widening rift and mutual suspicion within the then ruling PDP, the former president of Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), fell back on the support of the PDP wing loyal to former Governor Lucky Igbinedion, to battle Professor Oserheimen Osunbor, who was Chief Tony Anenih’s preferred candidate.
Like Governor Mimiko of Ondo State, Oshiomhole was denied victory at the 2007 election but he had waged a relentless legal battle against the PDP and its candidate until the Court of Appeal sitting in Benin sacked Prof. Osunbor on November and swore in Oshiomhole same day. He clinched a second term in office in 2012.

Professor Osunbor defected to APC after falling out with his former godfather, Anenih and particularly because PDP lost the presidential election. In April 7, 2015 when he formally defected to APC, he noted that he had always supported the opposition even while in PDP, stressing that he decided to leave because of some people who carried on as if they were owners of the party. He did not include aspiration to contest the governorship seat as part of the reasons that motivated his relocation to the APC shortly after the party won the presidential election.

But this was the much Prof. Osunbor said: “With a party in power at both the state and the centre, what are you staying in opposition to enjoy?”  APC suffered its own losses, especially with the defection of Chief Tom Ikimi and Pastor Iyamu.

As the crowd of defectors keeps increasing by the day, lessons from the Bayelsa experience become handy. Would APC handover the governorship ticket to any of these prominent defectors? How would the ambitious ones among them respond to the emergence of Oshiomhole’s anointed aspirant as the eventual flag-bearer? Above all, would there be a free and fair governorship primary election in Edo? Other possible aspirants that defected from PDP to APC are Major General Charles Airhiavbere, (rtd) and Mr.  Kenneth Imasuagbon.

It is obvious that governance has stalled in the state because starting from the incumbent to the aspirants and political jobbers, a lot of strategizing, alignments, intrigues and conspiracies are ongoing preparatory for the great game ahead. There is currently a sense of triumph in the APC based on the perception that PDP has been diminished and depleted by the defection of some notable political stakeholders including Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia to the party.

Despite the exodus from PDP, the party is still capable of springing a surprise. The field of aspirants is not crowded as such and the party may use the opportunity to right the wrongs of its selection process. Is there a possibility that some disgruntled aspirants that crossed over to APC could re-rat? Definitely! There is also the likelihood that some aspirants that lose out eventually may stay back and work against the party as the likes of Osunbor did while in PDP.

Already, visible political actors like the former Minister of Works, Chief Mike Onolememe, would definitely rise to be recognised in 2016 contest in Edo State. Oshiomhole’s former Secretary to the State Government, Pastor Ize Iyamu, is also associated with the governorship contest.

Apart from the usual politics of where the next governor of Edo would come from, Oshiomhole’s disposition during the selection process, his performance in office and the clout of rival candidates would determine the outcome of the governorship election.

Has Oshiomhole matured in just eight years to become a godfather in Edo politics? There is no doubt that the governor cut some impression in the development of the state in his eight years. There is the Benin Water Storm project, Queen Ede, Auchi and Ekewan erosion control projects. Some primary and secondary schools’ classrooms have been constructed and renovated.

Beleaguered as it may be, PDP has not hidden its confidence that Edo belongs it. With the sobriety and reengineering taking place in the party against the background of the strange conference in APC, the governorship election would without doubt throw up some surprising developments. A lot depends on how far APC federal government goes to fulfill its election promises and show that its victory against PDP was not borne out of cheap blackmail and propaganda

But the fact that civil servants have been complaining against the comrade governor’s indifference to the payment of salaries and pension, is evidence that all is not well with the APC strongman. Add to that the governor’s needless attacks on influential citizens of the state in recent times; the chances are that the governor would not find things easy as the governorship election draws near. He may learn too late that Edo politics, being different from trade unionism is too big for him to control.

Beleaguered as it may be, PDP has not hidden its confidence that Edo belongs it. With the sobriety and reengineering taking place in the party against the background of the strange conference in APC, the governorship election would without doubt throw up some surprising developments.

A lot depends on how far APC federal government goes to fulfill its election promises and show that its victory against PDP was not borne out of cheap blackmail and propaganda. Edo voters have shown that they are smart and know what they want, especially during the 2007 election. The people can call the bluff of any one man that thinks he can put them in his pocket. It is against that background that the governorship would defy any grandstanding or sloganeering.

Eyes On INEC
Going forward, analysts believe that the forthcoming Edo and Ondo governorship polls would afford the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), under Professor Mahmood Yakubu the opportunity to fine-tune its strategies for sustainable credible electoral system.

Interestingly, the electoral body has started ruminating on the various fallouts from the governorship elections in Kogi and Bayelsa. In a consultative meeting with leaders of the 30 regular parties, the INEC chairman assured that the commission under him would remain an unbiased election management body, adding that in the eyes of INEC all political parties have equal status.

Prof. Yakubu enumerated the inability to punish electoral offenders and poor observance of peace pacts by political parties and candidates as some of the factors inhibiting the commission.

He disclosed that the decision to experiment with simultaneous accreditation and voting during the Southern Ijaw supplementary election was taken with the agreement of all political parties involved in the Bayelsa election. His words: “Southern Ijaw may be small for us to have an assessment of whether we should extend it or we should just leave it as such by merely responding to exigency as need arises. What is the opinion of political parties on this? Do you think we should extend it nationwide in all future elections or we should maintain a status quo? We welcome your ideal on this regard.”

Prof. Yakubu noted that the inconclusive polls witnessed in Kogi and Bayelsa were not his making, pointing out that similar logjams were experienced in the past before his appointment. “Elections have been declared inconclusive six times at governorship level between 2011 and 2015 general elections. Recall what happened in Imo and Bauchi in 2011, the elections were not won on first ballot. Anambra in 2013 and then three inconclusive elections at governorship level at the 2015 general elections, in Imo for the second time, Taraba and Abia state,” he stated, stressing that the electoral guidelines are clear when it comes to disenfranchisement.

If the ongoing conversations and reviews are anything to go by, then Nigerians should expect controversy-free polls in Edo and Ondo later this year. But there are issues that are likely to feature prominently in the polls. The never ending rivalry between APC and PDP would continue to throw up vicious campaigns. While APC tries to show that its victory in last year’s election was borne out of the general love of Nigerians, PDP continues to demonstrate that it remains the first choice among the masses. It is this stiff competition for votes that has given rise to inconclusive polls.
All said, it is expected that by October and November when the governorship polls hold in Ondo and Edo, a lot must have happened in the polity to show the distinct features of the two major parties and to make the job of the electoral umpire easier.