Right from the fractious and very contentious 2023 Special Convention and presidential primary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the opinions of many Nigerians were that the main opposition party in Nigeria had literally gone into the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) – that section of a hospital where those in critical health conditions are managed.

Today, the national elective convention scheduled to be held in Ibadan, Oyo State, by the National Convention Organising Committee (NCOC), has run into troubled waters as the two rival factions claiming authority over the party’s leadership are holding divergent stands.

Ordinarily, the convention would have produced a new set of leaders for the party. The tenure of the PDP National Working Committee (NWC) led by Professor Iyorchia Ayu, which was elected on October 31, 2021, would expire by December. Ayu’s suspension in 2023 was sequel to the crisis of confidence between the then Governor Nyesom Wike-led G5 and the Ambassador Iliya Umar Damagum-led faction loyal to former vice president Atiku Abubakar.

The G5 governors comprising Wike of Rivers State, Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, Dr. Samuel Ortom of Benue State and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, disagreed with the zoning arrangement in the party’s leadership, which left the presidential flag bearer and national chairman in the North contrary to principles agreed upon before the election.

Although most party faithful claimed that Wike and the G5 were pained by the fact that the former Rivers State governor was not compensated after he lost the presidential ticket to Atiku as well as the running mate position, the G5 maintained that there was no way the two slots – presidential and chairmanship – would be retained in the North.

Many had thought that Ayu’s exit would pacify the aggrieved G5, but no sooner than the former national chairman resigned that the presidential election was held, with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) defeating Atiku. Having lost the presidential poll, PDP faithful loyal to Atiku cited the PDP constitution, which stipulated that in the absence of the national chairman, the deputy national chairman from his zone should step in to fill the vacuum. That was how Damagum continued in acting capacity until the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) affirmed his elevation as substantive chairman.

It was against that contentious background that the plan to hold an elective convention threw up disparate positions. And with the curious development, checks by The Guardian revealed that options of PDP’s survival as a united political platform have dimmed.

Analysts had observed that the wrangling within PDP NWC pointed to only one pathway for an amicable resolution notably, a return to the Senator Ahmed Makarfi-led Caretaker Committee, which weaned the party from similar bickering after a prolonged legal disputation with the Senator Ali Modu Sheriff faction. It was the Makarfi Caretaker Committee that guided the PDP into safe harbour for the national convention of 2017 and threw up the Prince Uche Secondus-led NWC.

Between 2017 and 2025, a lot has changed within the major opposition party. There are many contradictory interests as well as competing ambitions. These incongruous aspirations have thrown up a mountain high cloud of suspicions. A closer look at the various ideas put forward for the resolution of the impasse reveal some hidden motives and strategic positioning for personal gain.

This understanding explains why the recent suggestion by the former President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, for a return to the caretaker option could not cut any ice. Saraki, like Wike, are allegedly projecting a situation that would make it impossible for PDP to field a presidential candidate to contest against President Tinubu. If Wike knows that his political bread is better buttered by Tinubu’s second term, the son of Oloye, being a clever politician, knows that a second term for the President offers him ample time to prepare for the 2031 presidential poll on a strengthened PDP.

Then, within the camp of the pro-Ibadan convention faction under Damagum, there is a stack of three-dimensional deals that undergirds silent distrust: Governor Makinde wants to contest the Presidency, knowing that that opportunity would give him the necessary leverage to implant his preferred successor, as well as give him platform for a negotiated political future.

Speaking during the inauguration of the Ibadan Ring Road project recently, former president Olusegun Obasanjo noted that many people acknowledge the Oyo State governor as a well-heeled professional engineer. The former president further declared that Makinde has transformed into a real political engineer.

Also coming to the Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, it is obvious that the Chairman of PDP Governors’ Forum has not hidden his interest for the South to produce the presidential candidate for the 2027 poll. The snag in Mohammed’s offering is that while it presents as a possible support for Makinde, the real deal is for former president Goodluck Jonathan or Mr. Peter Obi to be the standard bearer.

Mohammed knows that whichever way the pendulum swings among the three southern candidates, he stands a good chance of emerging the presidential running mate. But similar to his calculations, his Adamawa State counterpart, Ahmadu Umar Fintiri, is making serious underground efforts to be a presidential running mate.

PDP insiders said that these underground calculations and scheming were behind the shifting positions that shaped the choice of Saminu Turaki as the consensus choice of the PDP governors for the position of national chairman.

The Guardianlearnt that the initial move to adopt Senator Ibrahim Shekarau as the compromise candidate failed mainly because the governors nursing presidential ambitions discovered that not only will Shekarau not be pliable after all, but also he will most likely stonewall any attempt to circumvent due process during the party’s presidential primary.

Similar consideration was said to have fueled the antagonism to a possible participation of the former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido, in the race for the chairmanship. A PDP governor toldThe Guardian that three factors militate against Lamido’s aspiration for the chairmanship.
Speaking on the condition of strict confidence, the governor stated: “In the first place, do you know how old Sule Lamido is? By last August he clocked 77. Leadership is not a function of age, but what we do not envisage is a situation that could bring back the party’s sore experience under Bamanga Tukur, when 10 members of the National Working Committee (NWC) failed to connect with his leadership style.

“Secondly, we are a party trying to survive a serious crisis and in dire need of healing. In our immediate past divisive presidential primary, Lamido took sides. As such, there is no way he could provide impartial leadership or earn the confidence of those who were on the other side during thewahala.

“Well, you know in politics, you don’t leave anything to chance. There were talks that he could use the party structure as a bargaining chip. Some people remembered his days in the Social Democratic Party (SDP) with Atiku Abubakar and President Tinubu.”

Even though the governor prayed that the former Jigawa State governor would see reason to avoid pulling the party he loves down the doldrums, Lamido dragged the party to court and won a stay order against November 15 convention.

Although the embattled main opposition party had zoned the chairmanship to the North, the attempt by the PDPGF to micro zone the slot to the North West geopolitical zone led to a repeat of history, where Lamido emulated the late Abubakar Rimi by going against the governors’ zoning arrangement.

The following are some of the major personalities and other hidden ambitions that have been fueling PDP’s quirky search for a safe pathway to return to national political reckoning and a cohesive platform:

Senator Adolphus Wabara
As the Chairman of PDP Board of Trustees, the former President of the Senate set up a reconciliation and harmonisation committee to stave off the possible factionalisation of the party. But the Abdulrahman Muhammed camp loyal to Wike described his effort as too little too late, stressing that Wabara was doing the bidding of the governors propelling the Ibadan convention.
 
By announcing the sacking of the Wabara-led BOT and replacing it with the Senator Mao Ohuabunwa BOT, the Abdulrahman group left no one in doubt that it means business about its desire to build a splinter.

Senator Ahmed Makarfi
The former governor of Kaduna State is seen as the stabilising force in the party. He serves as the Secretary of the PDP BOT. A moderate politician, Makarfi was twice disappointed by PDP – in 2007, when he was tapped as possible successor to President Obasanjo and in 2021 after steering and stabilising the party on the aftermath of the convulsive and tempestuous struggle for the soul of the party between the governors and Ali Modu Sheriff.

SaminuTuraki
Turaki served as Minister of Special Duties during the President Goodluck Jonathan administration. A Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) from Kebbi State, insiders said Turaki’s choice for the position of PDP national chairman received unanimous approval of all the PDP governors due to his level headedness and insistence on the strict observance of the rule of law and due process.

PDP leaders maintain that only such an impartial and loyal member could steer and steady the cause of PDP towards a stable and successful political future.

Bukola Saraki
Having headed the PDP Reconciliation Committee, the former Senate President met with members of the Ambassador Hassan Adamu-led Reconciliation Committee set up by the Wabara-led BOT.

Saraki regretted thatthe selfless and arduous efforts of some party leaders to resolve internal disputes did not yield positive results, lamenting that the planned convention culminated in political and legal wrangling.
 
In a post on his X handle, he cited legal and political controversies surrounding today’s elective national convention and pleaded with the party to suspend the exercise.

“As it stands, there is no assurance that the conduct and outcome of the convention will stand. Political matters can hardly be resolved through the courts. The affairs of political parties are best settled amicably with all sides at the table. Legal battles will only continue to cause friction,” he declared.

While calling on the PDP BoT to set the machinery in motion for the immediate establishment of a Caretaker Committee, Saraki noted that only such a body could manage the affairs of the PDP in a way to rekindle confidence and trust among party faithful as well as candidates for various elective positions.

However, given suspicions that Saraki was nursing a presidential ambition and working in cahoots with Wike, none of the warring parties was inclined to give heed to his call for a Caretaker Committee, as plausible as it sounds.

Abdulrahman Muhammed

Serving as the acting national chairman of the Wike-propelled faction of the party, Abdulrahman announced the suspension of November 15 convention, stressing that it contravenes the judgment of Abuja Federal High Court presided over by Justice James Omotosho.

It was gathered that the group plans to hold a parallel convention in the belief that the Ibadan convention would be overturned in court.
A member of the NWC, who pleaded anonymity, told The Guardian that the Wike group believes that the Ibadan convention would end up as an exercise in futility, remarking that the two cases against the convention before Justice Omotosho have already ambushed the convention.
 
“Watch out for the real thing after the coming weekend. It is a fight to the finish. Wike knows how to do this kind of battle. You will be amazed by how things will turn from next week,” he stated.

Meanwhile despite the grandstanding and machinations of the Abdulrahman faction, Damagum and the PDP governors have pushed ahead with the convention. In a statement, in Abuja, the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, urged all loyal party faithful and the general public to gear up for the exercise.

“The 2025 National Convention of the PDP has not been postponed, but will go on as scheduled on Saturday, 15th to Sunday, November 16, 2025 in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital,”he added.

Ologunagba, who is also the Secretary, Publicity and Communication Sub-Committee (NCOC), stated that both the NWC and NCOC were working assiduously to organise a very credible convention.

He blamed the ruling APC for making many attempts to scuttle the convention, stressing thatthe party has resolved to resist the nefarious designs by all lawful means and conduct a peaceful electoral convention.

While thanking Nigerians for their understanding and support, the PDP NCOC welcomed all delegates, party leaders, officials and all supporters of the party to Ibadan for the national convention.

After tomorrow, PDP delegates and officials will depart Ibadan. But as to whether the party is resuming its journey back to its full stature as a competitive national political movement for electoral consequence, only time will tell.