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The new political equation: rAPC+nPDP= rn(ADC)3P


President Muhammadu Buhari PHOTO: BAYO OMOBORIOWO

In Nigeria there are many prophets, mostly false prophets. But the effervescent dynamics of Nigerian political environment often gives them the opportunity to brag.

That’s because, they neither hear from God, nor do they have the necromancing ability to peep into the future to prophecise. Many only read newspapers or listen to radios or watch televisions often and feel sufficiently equipped to project the future.

Others do not even make the effort to search the media-online or offline, they just pay regular visits to drinking parlours and listen to the gists, rumours and gossips that are traded as they wash down goat-meat pepper soup with Adonko alcoholic bitters and they turn to prophecy, more so in this football season.

I asked one of such ‘prophets’ a few weeks ago, who would win the World Cup and he told me it was going to be either Germany, Spain or Portugal.

When these three teams got eliminated in the first rounds, I called this ‘prophet’ friend of mine to ask ‘how come?’ and he told me that the Octopus on which he depended disappointed him.

I then tried to convince him that he was not a prophet, but was only in the business of guesswork and that if he insisted on being addressed as a prophet then he was a false prophet.

My friend strongly remonstrated against calling him a false prophet. 

But this my friend called me last week and sounded triumphant. He asked me if I had heard.

I asked ‘heard what?’And then went on to answer that I had heard that Belgium beat Brazil in the quarter finals in the ongoing finals. He retorted that was not what he was asking about.

And announced to me that his prophesy about APC splitting into factions has been fulfilled and requested me to withdraw my earlier classification of him as a false prophet.

I ended the discussion by telling him that if predicting that APC would split into two or even self-destruct was an act of prophesy, then, most Nigerian political watchers and analysts like me would also claim to be prophets as well. 
How could anybody not see it coming? The Bible said centuries ago that a house divided against itself cannot stand.


APC was clobbered together as a vehicle in a determined effort by political power mongers to take power from Jonathan and his PDP.

These power mongers received support from the oracle of Ibogun, the man who troubleth Nigeria.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) led teams of this co federal group to go and invite his onetime arch-enemy Olusegun Obasanjo to come and lead them to ‘rescue’ Nigeria from Jonathan’s ‘cluelessness’.

OBJ who had earlier torn his PDP membership card in public offered his services and Jonathan was overthrown.
One would have hoped that once the mission of capturing power was accomplished the leaders of this amorphous congregation would take determined steps to begin welding the disparate groups together. But never.

The first sign that the future was fraught with danger was the bad omen on the day the National Assembly (NASS) was inaugurated.

The President had signed papers to proclaim the NASS at its first sitting at 10 a.m. on that fateful date.

At the same time, it was alleged that the same President called the party leaders including NASS members to a meeting at the International Conference Centre, Abuja.

It was when they saw on Television that Dr. Olubukola Saraki was being sworn in as the Senate President, that the parallel meeting ended abruptly with legislators scampering and running to the National Assembly.

In the meantime, the Senate had elected Saraki as its President and Dogara as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. That pained leaders of APC to no end as these were not their preferred candidates.

And everything Saraki and Dogara did thereafter to appease them, including joggling the other principal officers to accommodate the Party’s desire failed.


But the unforgivable sin committed by Saraki was that he allowed Ekweremadu of PDP to become Deputy Senate President.

Well I do not know what would have happened if PDP was bold and daring enough to have used its overwhelming majority that morning to take the Senate Presidency. But I am sure there would have been a war in the Senate Chambers to forcefully remove such audacious President.
In deed there have been wars in other ways to dislodge Saraki and Ekweremadu. First they were charged with forgery and illegal changing of the Senate rules to inaugurate the chamber.

When that failed, they took Saraki to the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) for failing to declare some assets he owned 15 years ago as governor.

When they lost at the CCT, they appealed and got some support for three out of the 15 charges at the Appeal Court.

Saraki went further to the Supreme Court who late last week quashed all the charges, setting Saraki free after nearly three years in court.

A few weeks ago Saraki was to be arrested for allegedly sponsoring armed robbers who violently robbed banks in Offa in Kwara State.

Saraki along with the serving governor of Kwara State were roped into the armed robbery case by the Nigeria Police under the leadership of IGP Ibrahim Kpotun Idris.

Were it not for the outcry of the media and notable Nigerians, Saraki would have been handcuffed as a common criminal and put away in detention, awaiting trial as alleged sponsor of such deadly armed robbery that took the lives of about 30 people.

He was then asked to write his statement and I believe the case was slowed down waiting for the outcome of the Code of Conduct case in the Supreme Court.

Now that Saraki has been acquitted and discharged, may be the case would now be accelerated and charged to court.


Much so, that Saraki is now being suspected as one of the sponsors of rAPC.

Before that, Nigerians watched in amazement as hoodlums walked into the Red Chambers, picked up the lace as the Senate was in plenary and left unchallenged by the security forces.

I hear this was part of a plot to impeach Saraki and Ekweremadu which again failed but further caused intra party dislocation.

Not to talk of the efforts of the APC governments in Kogi and Kaduna to incriminate APC Senators Dino Melaye and Shehu Sani respectively. 
While the campaign of APC against APC continued in both chambers of the NASS, of course with greater ferocity in the Senate, the President opened another front with Tinubu who was the National Party leader.

The President had to cut Tinubu to size when he admonished him to stop parading himself as the national leader of APC but to be content with being addressed as one of the national leaders since there cannot be two captains in one boat.

This rift caused instability for a while in the party and began to widen the gaps leading to further humiliation of Tinubu in Ondo State regarding choice of gubernatorial candidate.

The then Party Chairman John Odigie  Oyegun rose in defense of PMB and another conflict front was opened between the Party Chairman and the defacto National Party leader, Tinubu who was incensed by Oyegun’s betrayal.

He then began a major effort to remove Oyegun from his position even before his term was up.

PMB in an effort to reward Oyegun for helping him cut Tinubu to size, was at first willing to allow Oyegun and his Exco to extend their term but Tinubu rose like a wounded lion and pointedly asked PMB to chose to lose the next election (apparently by withdrawing his support for PMB) or ask Oyegun to go.

Given the current patent weakness of the brand, PMB made an about turn and asked Oyegun and his Exco to go and hand over to Oshiomhole.
Oyegun felt injured but bore his pain with grit and took a bow, certain that the centre of the Party would soon fall apart giving the contradictions and stresses it has gone through since victory was achieved in 2015.

Even the rapprochement between PMB and BAT which led to BAT being given the job of reconciler-in-chief failed to achieve its purpose.

I do not know whether BAT even made any moves as it seemed Oyegun was set to sabotage his efforts from the onset.

Then the cracks began to widen and we all began to hear the creaks from the cracks. All of a sudden the nPDP was resurrected.

One had thought it was dead buried and eaten up by ants after the ‘coup ‘to sack Jonathan was completed.

It was when this group from PDP to APC regrouped to bring nPDP back to life that my friend the false prophet called me one evening as he did recently to prophesy to me that the crack had gone beyond ‘ nmekwantaism’ (beyond mending) and that soon APC would fall apart.

Last week this came to be as PMB, BAT and new party Chairman Adams Oshiomhole watched in apparent amazement.

I said apparent amazement because APC leaders seemed to have called the bluff of the nPDP. They were offered opportunity to avert it, but it seemed the leaders did not care that much.
So entered the reformed APC (rAPC) into the Nigerian political equation. Is rAPC equals to nPDP? I do not think so.

When nPDP entered into APC they were led by Kawu Baraje but when rAPC emerged from APC, they were led by one Buba Galadima (with Baraje in tow) who was never in the nPDP and I hear he used to be secretary-General of PMB’s CPC.

It then means rAPC equals nPDP+, reminding me of the biblical parable of some wicked demon who was cast out from a man and the demon roamed all over and when he found that the space created on his departure had not been filled with any good spirit, decided to return taking along seven other more wicked demons to re-possess the man.

The bible records that the man’s latter situation became much worse than his former situation before the lone demon was cast out.
This therefore complicates the Nigerian political equation. With many variables, it may be difficult even for the likes of mathematical Chike Obi to balance.

Do we now know all the members of the rAPC? Do they have members in the National Assembly?

Are there state governors in their fold? Where is their ultimate destination- back to PDP or on their way to ADC or the third force? Will anything come out of Oshiomhole’s threat to them?

Wherever, though I am not a prophet, in the mould of my friend, I can say without fear of losing my deposit or bet that Nigeria’s political equation has changed for good for some and for bad for others.

A few more constants will emerge in the next few weeks which will help balance the equation. Quote me anywhere.

Mazi Ohuabunwa, OFR.

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