By keeping his winning strategies close to his chest, President Bola Tinubu appears determined to avoid the fate that befell the former ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). That may explain why he is doing everything possible to ensure that internal wrangling, perceived betrayal and possible sabotage within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) do not deny him victory next year, LEO SOBECHI reports.

The post-primary election complaints in the APC are not a storm in a teacup. Coming shortly after the party surreptitiously submitted its revised list of nominated candidates for the 2027 general election, the ruling party knows that managing the outcry is key to its march towards next year’s poll.

Part of the party’s troubleshooting strategy is to control information regarding the actual composition of its list of contenders for crucial positions, ranging from the National Assembly to the vice-presidential candidate. As of July 2, various party leaders maintained that no one, except President Bola Tinubu, knows who will join him on the APC presidential ticket for the January 18, 2027, election.

They noted that the conflicting positions between the party and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) over the APC’s controversial revised list form part of the unfolding intrigues surrounding the party’s determination to minimise confrontations that could diminish its cohesion and fighting spirit in the lead-up to next year’s election.

The electoral umpire recently raised a red flag when its National Commissioner, Mohammed Haruna, declared that it would not recognise candidates who did not emerge from primaries monitored by the commission.

While disclosing that all duly registered political parties had collected their access codes, Haruna noted that although some parties had only just begun their nomination processes, INEC’s electronic nomination portal would automatically reject any attempt to substitute candidates outside the records of monitored primaries.

He stated: “We have uploaded the results of all the party primaries monitored by INEC staff, but I can tell you that our electronic nomination portal would automatically reject any attempt to substitute candidates outside those records.

“By INEC’s rules, the nomination process consists of two stages, and they are programmed in such a way as to ensure that irregular substitutions do not occur to trigger court cases as happened during the last elections.

“So, before political parties submit the particulars of their candidates, the authentic results from those primaries are expected to have been uploaded to our portal by the commission’s officials who monitored the exercise. This serves as a safeguard.”

Although Haruna disclosed that parties are expected to upload Form EC89, APC chieftains maintained that INEC has no say over who flies the party’s flag, stressing that the commission’s role ends with ensuring that laid-down regulations are duly followed during party primaries.

Furthermore, despite the stringent provisions of the Electoral Act guiding the nomination of candidates by political parties, the APC insists that Supreme Court decisions affirm that political parties retain the final say on who manages their affairs and who flies their flag in an election.

On the flip side, the ruling party is also relying heavily on Section 83 of the Electoral Act 2026, which prohibits party members from defecting after the party’s membership register has been deposited with INEC. By keeping the list of its candidates valid shrouded in uncertainty, the ruling party hopes to curtail the ability of those who lose out in the nomination process to join rival platforms.

The party acknowledges that members of the National Assembly possess considerable influence in their respective constituencies. Consequently, the Presidency and the National Working Committee (NWC) are said to have agreed that the final list of nominees should remain a subject of speculation until the appropriate time.

An APC chieftain and former senator said: “Believe me, it is only at the close of the substitution window that the authentic list of APC candidates will become public. Make no mistake about this; remember that the party conducted its internal screening of candidates before the primaries. INEC cannot force us to field candidates who did not meet the party’s criteria.”

Recall that barely two days before the primaries, the APC National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, in a statement titled, “Screened and Not Cleared APC House of Representatives Aspirants,” stressed that “the screening exercise was conducted by the party’s screening committees in line with established procedures and guidelines.”

Yet, when lawmakers’ demand for automatic tickets could not withstand the confusion surrounding the direct primary method, the party began to lose some of its well-heeled chieftains. Shortly after the National Assembly primaries, the APC lost three members of the House of Representatives, Abubakar Baba Zango (Yola North/Yola South/Girei Federal Constituency), Abdullahi El-Rasheed, and Rabiu Bala, Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Diaspora Affairs, to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), respectively.

The lawmakers who lost out in the APC primaries were said to be taking advantage of the Supreme Court ruling that altered INEC’s timeline for submitting membership registers to try their luck elsewhere.

However, in a bid to quell what could have become a deluge of defections from the APC, the President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, hinted that plans were underway to address the mass failure of incumbent National Assembly members in the party’s primaries.

According to Akpabio, the Senate leadership is working to secure alternative opportunities for some of the affected lawmakers, even as opinions remain divided over what became of the alleged automatic ticket arrangement that lured opposition legislators into the ruling party. Nonetheless, unease within the APC has heightened in light of the huge number of incumbent senators who lost their tickets, particularly the implications of those defeats for the party’s unity and the stability of the National Assembly as the party heads towards next year’s elections.

Against this backdrop, the APC National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, has maintained sealed lips over the status of the party’s final list of nominees, including the position of presidential running mate.

PGF distraction
AMID the APC’s strategy of silence, however, the crisis in the Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF) continues to stand out like a sore thumb. Observers argue that the crisis within the PGF, the umbrella body of APC governors, mirrors the infighting that engulfed the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), which eventually contributed to the defeat of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 general election.

It would be recalled that following the disputed NGF chairmanship election between former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi, and his Plateau State counterpart, Jonah Jang, the then ruling PDP factionalised the forum and established its own caucus, the PDP Governors’ Forum (PDPGF), with then Akwa Ibom State governor, Godswill Akpabio, as its pioneer chairman.

In the APC, however, the PGF’s drift into quiet factions followed disagreements over governors’ financial contributions towards publicising the party’s achievements and funding preparations for the 2027 elections.

While Ogun State Governor, Dapo Abiodun, reportedly convened a meeting at the Ogun State Government Lodge to remove Hope Uzodimma as PGF chairman, 18 other governors rejected both the move and Peter Mbah’s choice as Uzodimma’s replacement.

The pro-Uzodimma governors included those of Ondo, Kaduna, Taraba, Sokoto, Ebonyi, Borno, Lagos, Kogi, Kano, Yobe, Kebbi, Benue, Jigawa and Nasarawa, the latter represented by his deputy. Speaking on behalf of the group, Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, dismissed reports of a split, declaring: “The APC Progressive Governors’ Forum is very united; we are stronger now than at any other time. There is no problem at all.”

While some sources attributed Uzodimma’s removal to his alleged involvement in Vice President Kashim Shettima’s substitution of President Bola Tinubu’s presidential nomination forms, others claimed it stemmed from concerns over his leadership style and financial record-keeping.

Although President Tinubu, who was in Ethiopia at the time, was said to have intervened by urging the governors to maintain the status quo, it was gathered that upon his return to Nigeria, the governors maintained their opposing positions, with about 20 reportedly backing the leadership change.

The governors of Yobe, Lagos, Gombe, Kogi, Edo, Ekiti, Ondo, Sokoto, Jigawa and Kaduna remained loyal to the Imo State governor. The first indication that the division within the PGF could undermine the APC’s preparedness for the 2027 elections emerged a fortnight ago when the forum failed to maintain its usual visibility during the Ekiti State governorship election.

Tremors in the South-East, North-West
APART from Jigawa, Kaduna and Sokoto states, the other governors reportedly sided with Uzodimma’s removal as PGF chairman. It was gathered that, based on this numerical advantage, the Presidency directed the Imo State governor to regularise the PGF’s accounts and hand it over to Governor Mbah.

Determined to improve the APC’s electoral fortunes in the North-West, President Tinubu is said to have resolved to appoint the Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Organisation from the zone, while discreet consultations are ongoing over the possibility of zoning the office of Senate President to the region.

A Presidency source told The Guardian that although consultations with stakeholders were continuing, the President had yet to agree to demands by some former governors that Abdulaziz Yari should occupy both positions.

“The President believes Yari is best suited to head the presidential campaign, while Senator Barau Jibrin should be supported for the Senate presidency. Jibrin sacrificed his governorship ambition to accommodate Governor Kabiru Abba Yusuf when he returned to the APC. But Yari also has the clout to serve as Senate President. That is the challenge before the President,” the source said.

If the situation in the North-West is complicated, it is even more delicate for the APC in the South-East. The rivalry between Uzodimma and Mbah has sharply divided governors in the region, leaving only the Ebonyi State governor firmly aligned with the embattled PGF chairman.

Amid concerns over loyalty, President Tinubu is said to prefer working with non-APC governors rather than relying solely on what he reportedly regards as the party’s “aboriginal” leaders in the region. While Uzodimma is perceived to enjoy the support of Vice President Shettima, Mbah’s longstanding relationship with the President appears to have strengthened his position in the ongoing supremacy battle.

With Abia State Governor, Alex Otti, favourably disposed towards Mbah’s leadership of the PGF, both Orji Uzor Kalu and David Umahi are also said to enjoy cordial relations with the Enugu governor.

The recent arrest of former Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Geoffrey Nnaji, is said to be one of the consequences of Uzodimma’s deteriorating relationship with the Presidency. Insiders also claim that the President was displeased after the Imo governor allegedly substituted the name of former APC Deputy National Organising Secretary, Nze Chidi Duru, after the President had already approved the list of National Working Committee members ahead of the party’s national convention.

It was further gathered that additional changes to the National Assembly candidates’ list would reflect the Presidency’s evolving calculations. Minister of Works, Umahi, reportedly secured the substitution of his preferred candidate, Joseph Ekuma Nkama, for the incumbent, Hon. Iduma Igariwey Enwo, who defected to the APC only weeks before the primaries.

Igariwey had enjoyed the backing of Ebonyi State Governor, Francis Nwifuru, who is also aligned with Uzodimma. However, Nwifuru was said to have reached an understanding with Umahi, recognising that a wise general does not fight wars on two fronts.

While Nwifuru and Umahi jointly reaffirmed their support for President Tinubu’s January 18 presidential bid, the situation in neighbouring Abia State remains different. Governor Otti is reportedly backing businessman Dr David Ogba Onuoha Bourdex, founder of Bourdex Telecoms, to replace Senator Orji Uzor Kalu in the Senate.

It was also gathered that owing to the President’s cordial relationship with Otti, Senate Minority Leader Enyinnaya Abaribe defected from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the Labour Party (LP).

With the APC’s ongoing electoral engineering in the South-East, the Labour Party is projected to retain two Senate seats, while the Presidency is still weighing who should eventually emerge as the party’s candidate for Abia Central Senatorial District following Senator Nkechi Nwaogu’s resignation in protest over the disputed primary.

While Hon. Sam Onuigbo and Emeka Atuma are banking on the Presidency and Uzodimma, respectively, to secure the APC ticket, it remains unclear how progressives will close ranks in Anambra State, where the All Progressives Grand Alliance has never produced a senator until the emergence of one following the death of Ifeanyi Ubah.