DELTA: Battle For The Big Heart, Too Many Factors At Play

WHEN the almost two million eligible voters with the Permanent Voters Cards (PVC) file out to cast their vote on April 11 for the governorship and the 29 House of Assembly seats, several factors ranging from the victory of Maj-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), to the choice of running mates by the three candidates of the three major political parties and the agitation for power shift by the Anioma of Delta North Senatorial district, will, no doubt, shape the outcome of the race.

Also, the stand of Urhobo, the largest ethnic group in the state, with well over half of its population, will equally play a crucial role. After all, two of its sons, Olorogun O’tega Emerhor of APC and Chief Great Ogboru of the Labour Party are in the race.

The local politics of Delta South Senatorial district, which is populated by the three ethnic groups of Ijaw, Isoko and Itsekiri, will also be in the minds of voters.

The victory of Buhari has, obviously, energised the opposition party, which before now was struggling to find its feet in the political firmament of the state. In the event of a major bandwagon effect, the APC candidate could come close to victory.

Being the largest ethnic group, the Urhobo people stand a better chance of determining the governorship seat, but could meet a brick wall from a determined Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, the governorship candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), whose zone is the only one yet to produce the governor.

Before now, political pundits had given it to Okowa, but the loss by Jonathan to Buhari, and his choice of Mr. Kingsley Otuaro, an ethnic Ijaw, as his running mate, seem to have upset the order.

With Ogboru choosing an Isoko as his running mate and the Itsekiri losing out to Senator James Manager in the district, a combination of protest votes by Isoko and Iteskiri may undo Okowa.

The victory of Manager, who won the election for an unprecedented fourth term on March 28, may have unnerved Isoko and Itsekiri, who felt left out, considering the fact the district, has an unwritten rotational accord among the three tribes. With Ijaw also being the running mate to Okowa, there may just be protest votes against the PDP candidate.

Again, talk of either, Ogboru and Emerhor stepping down for each other may also be a serious factor in the political arithmetic of the state. Should the Urhobo agree to field a single candidate, Okowa, an Anioma from Owa, Ika North East Council will definitely be in seriously trouble.

A proper use of the card reader may also be a strong factor in the election. Before now, elections generally have not been free and fair in the country, but the card reader seems to be revolutionary, as votes now appear to count, going by the outcome of the presidential election. Should votes truly count, the coast could be clear for any of the candidates of the three parties.