OGUN: The Race Is Between Amosun, Isiaka

THE Presidential and National Assembly election has given a signal that the governorship election this Saturday is going to be keenly contested between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The slogan of Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s opponents, even before the election, was ‘Continuity in Abuja, change in Ogun’. But there is a change in Abuja now, so, they (opponents) are anxiously waiting to see if there will be change in Ogun. Amosun is contesting on the platform of APC, while the PDP’s candidate is Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka. APC supporters are insisting that, despite all odds, there will be continuity in Ogun.

Though, APC won seven out of the nine House of Representatives seats and two of the three Senatorial seats in the last election, The Guardian’s investigations have revealed that APC cannot easily assume that it will easily win on Saturday. This is because in the last election, APC scored 308,290, while PDP votes were 207,950, a difference of only 100,340. Besides, there are moves by other parties to form an alliance with PDP to beat the incumbent governor.

In last Saturday’s elections the PDP, LP, SDP and some of the smaller parties in the state jointly voted for Jonathan, but he lost. Based on this, the APC supporters are optimistic that they will once again scale through, even if all the 14 political parties in the state team up against Amosun.

Amosun’s stronghold is Ogun Central Senatorial District, where he comes from. He won convincingly in that zone. In the 2011 election also, he won overwhelmingly in the area, so, it could be safely assumed that victory in the senatorial district is assured. However, APC may not do well in Ogun East for two reasons: The first is that two PDP chieftains, former Ogun State governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, and Prince Buruji Kashamu are from that zone.

The Guardian gathered, “they are working seriously with all their energy, commitment and resources to unseat Amosun.”

Another reason is that the Ijebus, who populate the zone, are alleging that Amosun’s administration did not do much in the area in terms of provision of infrastructure.

The PDP Governorship candidate, Isiaka, is from Ogun West, so, it appeals to reason to say that Isiaka would be able to garner more votes in that zone than Amosun.

Though, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Chief Akin Odunsi, is also from Ogun West, ordinarily he should split Isiaka’s votes, but due to the abysmal performance of the SDP in last Saturday’s election, the PDP doesn’t seem to be threatened. It is believed that Isiaka will win convincingly in the area. The hope is strengthened by their allegation that Amosun’s government has not done much in the area in terms of development.

But Amosun’s supporters are quick to point out that the government is constructing a six-lane, 107 kilometres road through the zone. Hence, even if they don’t win overall in Ogun West, they will garner enough votes.

Amosun supporters are also banking on the alleged feud between Kashamu and Daniel, which they say, will prompt Daniel’s supporters to vote against Isiaka or not vote at all. If the speculations true, it would have been of great advantage to Amosun because similar division within the PDP helped Amosun to power.

But a PDP stalwart and a prominent member of Daniel’s camp, Ifekayode
Akinbode denied the allegation, saying, “it is totally false. Daniel and Kashamu have buried their differences and are working seriously to send Amosun out of office.”

One other major problem confronting Amosun’s return is the bad blood between him and the state civil servants. The state workers are accusing him of illegal deductions from their salaries and have vowed not to vote him in again. And they are quite a sizeable number.

One major factor working for Isiaka is that no Yewa indigene has ever occupied the Governor’s seat since the state was created 39 years ago. Hence, based on this alone, some people will likely vote for him for the sake of justice and equity.

The APC is banking on the fact that, since they have clinched the Presidential ticket, it would be easier for them to win some faithful from the other parties to their side. Whichever way it is looked at, the battle is going to be between Amosun and Isiaka.