Demand in air travel by Nigerians has surged by nearly 60 per cent above 2019 levels, building on the positive results achieved in the fourth quarter of 2022.
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The positive development features in the rapid rebound recorded by African airlines in 2023.
Figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) showed that the African region witnessed a remarkable 87.1 per cent year-on-year growth in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) during the first quarter (Q1).

But despite the general outlook, the aviation sector in Nigeria has also recorded a decline in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 (compared with Q1 2022) as flight operations reduced by over 5,000.

The Q1 factsheet released by the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) showed that 21,361 flights were operated by domes­tic and international airlines in first quarter 2023, while a total of 26,584 flights were operated in the same pe­riod in 2022. This figure indicates that the country recorded 5,223 flights decline when compared to the same period of first quarter 2023.
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The factsheet showed that 3,073 flights were operated by international airlines between January and March 2023, while the domestic airlines had 18,288 flights within the period.

However, international flight operations within the periods recorded a boost from 2,986 to 3,073, while the domestic flights declined from 23,599 to 18,288, in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

In the period under review, a total of 3,662,337 passengers travelled on 25 international carriers and 11 domestic airlines.
IATA noted that the slowdown, which is not peculiar to Nigeria, is not unconnected with the region’s grappling with structural financial and economic barriers that dampen air travel demand.

The continent, according to the clearing house, also faces various cost, infrastructure and connectivity challenges that limit aviation capacity and impede the establishment of adequate air services.
Some such factors also affect the restoration of traffic to pre-pandemic levels. The divergent outcomes could be seen in terms of origin-destination (O-D) passenger traffic and airline scheduled seat capacity for specific countries in Africa in the chart. Major economies in the region (like Nigeria) have demonstrated significant recovery, surpassing pre-crisis levels of activity.

In Northern Africa, Egypt and Morocco experienced a substantial increase of 29 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, in passenger traffic during Q1 2023 compared to the same period in 2019.

Airline capacity in Egypt also kept pace with passenger traffic, growing by 30 per cent in comparison to the first quarter of 2019. Morocco and other nations saw passenger numbers increase faster than airline seat capacity, indicating more efficient use of airline capacity.

Meanwhile, in Eastern Africa, Ethiopia witnessed passenger and airline seat levels that were 19 per cent and 14 per cent above pre-pandemic figures respectively.

Longstanding structural and profitability challenges in Southern Africa continued to affect markets in the region, which lagged 2019 levels of aviation activity.

Reflecting a weakened local economy and constraints on airline capacity, South Africa’s Q1 2023 passengers remained 12 per cent below 2019 levels, while scheduled seats were even further behind (27 per cent below).

Still, this market showed significant improvement from the traffic and capacity deficits observed in the last quarter of 2022.

Africa’s rapid recovery in traffic has been complemented by the region’s advancements in connectivity and airline competition. To take full advantage of aviation’s contribution to economic development, IATA advised that efforts to liberalise aviation in Africa must intensify.
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