A recent analysis of the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market in Africa revealed that of the 54 African markets, only nine currently support the operations.

Specifically, the newly published 2026 Africa MVNO Report by Africa Analysis discovered that the continent’s virtual market operations are significant but remain at an early stage.

The report disclosed that MVNO subscribers across nine operational markets are forecast to increase from approximately 7.9 million in 2025 to 39.6 million by 2030, noting that while only nine markets currently support active MVNO operations, 83 per cent of the markets assessed have no active MVNO market.

Managing Director at Africa Analysis, Andre Wills, said that Africa does not lack mobile scale.

“The continent already has close to 1.5 billion mobile subscriptions. The more important question is whether individual markets have the regulatory framework, wholesale economics, customer-switching mechanisms and digital infrastructure required to turn that scale into a sustainable MVNO opportunity,” Wills said.

The market research and analysis company identified 21 markets as “high” or “very high” in MVNO attractiveness, based on a combination of market potential and execution readiness.

The report found 14 markets where MVNOs are permitted, or where licenses have already been issued, but where no operational MVNO market exists. This represents approximately 407 million mobile subscriptions.

“This indicates that regulatory permission alone is insufficient to create a viable MVNO ecosystem,” Africa Analysis said.

The report found that 85 per cent of the nine-market 2030 MVNO subscriber base is expected to sit in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda.

South Africa is projected to lead in 2030, with 14.4 million MVNO subscribers, followed by Nigeria, which could grow to 10.9 million. Kenya, Uganda and Senegal are expected to expand their subscriber bases to between three million and 4.3 million each.

The report said that four factors will determine where MVNO growth becomes investable:

“Mobile number portability and switching – effective, low-friction porting with clear implementation timelines and enforcement.

“Licensing – clear MVNO categories, proportionate obligations and executable licensing processes.

“Wholesale access – commercially sustainable pricing, reference offers, service levels and, where possible, multiple host-network options.

“Digital readiness – expanding 4G and 5G adoption, eSIM availability, affordable smartphones and digital customer onboarding.

The 2026 Africa MVNO Report pointed out a distinction between true MVNOs and branded resellers or on-billers.