Experts optimistic on new forex policy, seek transparency

CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele

CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele
CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele

The financial market operators and currency analysts have said that Nigeria stands to benefit from the flexible exchange rate policy, starting from the immediate return of confidence on the economy to the long term stability of Naira’s value.

Besides, they expressed optimism that activities would soon pick up and stimulate growth, as the long withheld foreign direct and portfolio investments would soon begin to flow into the economy.

The Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Limited, Bismack Rewane, said the full implementation of the flexible policy, which he had long canvassed, would see the exchange rate down to the N200s to the dollar in a matter of weeks, after the usual initial reactionary spike.

He said that at N300 per dollar profile would go a long way in solving the illiquidity and insolvent tendencies among some states, as the little dollar earnings would turn out more Naira for them, ending the frequent bailout plans.

He pointed out that while Nigeria, like other oil producing economies are going through the challenging oil price crisis, it’s case worsened with the mismanagement of resources and poor policy responses in dealing with the issue.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, said that part of the new policy seeks to establish futures trading, which would help to fizzle out spot speculations, allowing people to lock-in deals for future use, rather than physical cash on the spot, which fuels price hike.

By the new policy, all proceeds of foreign investment and remittances will now be warehoused and sold to primary dealers in the market, using the daily interbank rate, eliminating the autonomous sources which BDC’s play.

The development has therefore, seen the natural elimination of BDC business, with its over 3000 licensed operators and acclaimed 35 000 jobs.

The Acting President, Alhaji Aminu Gwadabe, while speaking with The Guardian, said the association as a group is planning a collective effort to beat the primary dealership requisites and emerge a primary dealer in the new arrangement.

Expressing optimism on the new direction, he said that if managed well, it is good for the economy and will bring in inflows because international investors that have been waiting due to the peg on exchange rate “will definitely come back”.

“But my fear is whether it will be transparent as claimed. We have been hearing of criminalities committed by banks and nothing happens to them. Will this new market be devoid of such abnormality.

“We are reviewing the policies and considering the possibilities of group action. Though its difficult we are not giving it away. It is one major option we are now into because to survive, we will pursue it.

“We (BDCs) have commenced consultations. By our numbers, it means each BDC will have to contribute 200 million and on the other hand, it means each shareholder will depend on dividend when profit is made.

“But the whole idea is not fair to BDCs, who provide the needed services and create jobs. Are the banks ready for that business model?” he queried.

The Research and Currency Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, said global markets received the move as a pleasant and surprise package during trading on Wednesday.

According to him, for an extended period, the incessant declines in oil prices have slashed the nation’s foreign exchange earnings, while the dollar peg has heavily eroded reserves, which simply pressured the nation further.

“With fears mounting that a recession could be pending in Q2 amid depressed oil prices, the central bank’s move to de-peg the Naira may have mitigated some concerns, consequently boosting sentiment.

“Although the Naira may be set to depreciate to unfathomable levels as the natural forces of supply and demand determine its true value on the free floating exchange, this could encourage domestic import substitution, while re-attracting foreign investors. CBN will need to act with haste by hiking rates, as ongoing Naira weakness may punish Nigerians further while causing inflation to spiral uncontrollably,” he said.

The President of Time Economics, Dr. Ogho Okiti, said: “We believe these measures are long overdue, while some of the innovations introduced to the forex market today will not only ensure liquidity and access to foreign exchange, but will also deepen the financial market.

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