The president faces significant opposition from stakeholders who have lost out because of his policies or who will if he is to achieve his stated objective of transforming the country into a major production centre for agricultural and manufactured goods rather than merely an importer. The fuel shortages were no doubt caused by importers angry at the abolition of their subsidies.  Importers who had made use of preferential favourable foreign exchange rates, often to buy luxury items or goods that Nigeria could and should produce locally and now have to buy foreign exchange at higher market rates since the Naira was fully floated are also unhappy.

Buhari would need to adapt and rise to challenges, many of which have roots in the actions of his predecessors.  With regards to his economic woes, there is little he can do in the short term on the collapse of world oil prices.  It however strengthens his move to diversify the economy.  The flotation of the Naira will help domestic producers who had suffered when importers had access to foreign exchange at very favourably subsidised rates. Policies to assist agricultural producers announced in the budget, improvements in the physical and soft infrastructure would create a conducive environment for investment by local and foreign investors in all sectors.

Diversification of the economy in the medium to long term would minimise the effects of depressed and volatile world oil prices.  The low power generation is largely the result of President Jonathan’s crony privatisation which broke up the state power generation company and handed it to operators who do not have the expertise and track record. There was no due diligence when the privatisation process took place and the main qualification of the new owners was how connected they were to Jonathan and his party.

Buhari would need to review the privatisation process and performance of these companies and where necessary revoke ownership and get more qualified operators to take over. He needs to negotiate in good faith with the Delta region to maintain and develop oil production and delivery. He needs to counter the opposition of importers with a major public relations campaign, highlighting the fact that he is only being fair to everybody, removing subsidised foreign exchange from importers who were only reaping vast profits.  The previous system including the partial flotation was also costly to manage and rather arbitrary in foreign exchange allocation. 

He should note that Nigeria has the potential to produce many of these imported items, creating jobs, reducing economic shocks from reliance on only one commodity, oil and, achieving equity as wealth is siphoned from a few importers to farmers, local manufacturers and consumers. And floating the Naira is indeed leveling the playing field for all operators.

The country needs to make the maximum use of its leverage, namely, population, oil and geo-political status.  In his attempt at diversifying the economy he needs to use Nigeria’s major leverage as China did 30 years ago when it opened up its economy, namely, the size of its market of 171 million people – major foreign brands were salivating when they suddenly realised that they could sell to one billion Chinese consumers.  Like China did, Nigeria should encourage and entice foreign companies to build factories in Nigeria to service their customers. Companies who have large market shares should be targeted.

In the oil sector the country should use its leverage for refining and power generation. Major corporations, who are presently involved in oil production, many of whom have refining and power generation facilities in other countries, should be encouraged and enticed to invest in refining and power generation in Nigeria. This can only happen if the country can create a conducive investment climate. 

Preferential treatment should be given to companies that invest in such facilities. To encourage and entice investment in these areas the country would need to review rules on ownership, notably, the level of foreign control and, profit repatriation. It should ensure that its investment codes and judiciary system are transparent and consistent.  Improvements in the physical infrastructure would help and the country needs to ensure that its educational infrastructure can produce workers with the relevant technical skills.

Nigeria needs to leverage its geo-political status, namely its size, in discussions with major powers. Nigeria is the giant of Africa and it is in the interest of major powers, Africa and the world that it is stable and has a growing economy. These points should help in the government’s efforts to repatriate funds looted by corrupt politicians and government officials that have been stashed away in foreign banks, business and properties.  Major powers could also encourage investments by their companies in Nigeria. The president should highlight his unique position, a leader who came to power in a fair election and wants to be a good and effective partner.

What then is the way forward for Africa’s sleeping giant?  Firstly, Buhari is still the best deal in town, with regards to his sincerity, determination and policies.  Ironically the main challenge for him is democracy. The Nigerian patient needs major surgery which can be painful and the patient needs time to heal.  Will the patient have the tenacity and patience? Will s/he succumb to the false and discredited statements of selfish and corrupt stakeholders who have lost out? Buhari’s time is limited and he will soon be facing his masters and mistresses, the electorate who will evaluate his record and decide if he should be given time to continue work on his difficult job.

Will he get it, who knows, democracy is a strange business and the electorate has often taken perverse decisions. So Mr. Buhari you have a tough call, keep up the good work but you also need to be a super sales man. Interestingly when I first heard the President in Oxford I doubted whether he had the right sales pitch, no doubt he will prove me wrong again.
Concluded
• J Boima Rogers is the Principal Consultant at Media and Event Management Oxford MEMO, can be reached via www.oxfordmemo.co.uk