Managing Director of APT Securities and Funds Limited, Kasimu Garba Kurfi, has stressed the urgent need for the Nigerian government to create an enabling environment that would support the productive sector as a catalyst for job creation, revenue generation and long-term economic sustainability.
Speaking at the Mid-Year 2025 Capital Market Review and Outlook organised by the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN), Kurfi stressed that massive investments in production and processing would make the economy more vibrant, particularly by unlocking new opportunities for employment and industrial growth.
He recalled that in the 1980s, when the naira was stronger than the dollar, Nigeria relied heavily on domestic production rather than imports.
“At that time, local car assembly plants in Elele and Enugu were operational, the country produced most of the clothing worn by its citizens, and the manufacturing sector contributed significantly to the economy.”
The strong production base, Kurfi noted, helped to keep the currency stable and boosted the standard of living.
However, he lamented, the structure of the economy has shifted, with the financial services sector dominating the GDP while the real productive sectors, manufacturing, agriculture, and processing, lag.
He questioned how many jobs the banks, as major players in the financial sector, have created compared to what could be achieved if more emphasis were placed on industries that engage in tangible production.
Kurfi argued that an economy cannot survive on importation alone, stressing that sustainable economic strength can only come from producing goods and services locally.
He maintained that a renewed focus on manufacturing, agriculture and value-added processing would not only create jobs but also strengthen the naira, reduce dependency on foreign goods and set Nigeria on the path of genuine economic prosperity.
Kurfi added that the road to recovery and stability lies in returning to the fundamentals, producing what the country needs and exporting the surplus, rather than relying on imports to meet basic needs.
On the stock market, he projected, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) market capitalisation would surpass N100 trillion by the end of 2025, buoyed by foreign exchange stability, strong corporate fundamentals and increased primary market activities.
Kurfi said the second half of the year will witness improved market performance, with inflation expected to slow, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) likely to cut the monetary policy rate (MPR) and treasury bill yields projected to fall.
He added that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will rise, while the exchange rate will remain relatively stable, creating a favourable environment for equities.
According to him, the NGX will end the year stronger than 2024, with a market correction in the short-term paving the way for sustained gains.
He noted that more financial institutions are expected to recapitalise, while primary market activities will remain active in the months ahead.
Kurfi identified key drivers of the 2025 market rally, including the elimination of foreign exchange-related losses by companies. He pointed out that in 2024, listed firms posted pre-tax FX losses of N507.2 billion, up from N359 billion in 2023, representing a combined N867 billion in losses.
“In 2025, we have seen zero FX losses due to exchange rate stability, and this has significantly boosted investor confidence,” he said.
The APT Securities boss said the signing of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 25) has triggered a rally in insurance stocks, while the CBN’s bank recapitalisation programme has revived the primary market, attracting over N2 trillion in 2024, with similar volumes anticipated in 2025.
He also revealed that foreign capital inflows reached $5.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from $3.4 billion in the same period in 2024, representing a 67.42 per cent increase.
“Foreign portfolio investment now accounts for 27.08 per cent of market participation, or N1.14 trillion, as of July 2025, compared with less than 10 per cent at the end of 2023. Domestic investors, however, remain the dominant force, accounting for 72.92 per cent or N3 trillion. Daily market turnover has also improved sharply, averaging N25–N30 billion, compared with N5 billion in previous years.
“Performance data for the year shows the NGX turnover reached N4.19 trillion for the first half of 2025, compared with N2.60 trillion in the same period in 2024. Total market capitalisation rose to N126.73 trillion from N112.6 trillion in December 2024, while equity capitalisation surged to N92.73 trillion as of August 7, 2025, from N62.66 trillion at the end of 2024.
“The All-Share Index (ASI) climbed to 146,569.35 basis points in early August, up 41.61 per cent from 102,926.40 points in December 2024. Sectoral performance has been robust, with about half of the NGX’s 21 indices
outperforming the ASI. The Nigerian Consumer Goods Index has more than doubled the market’s gains with an 81.11 per cent rise, followed by the Insurance Index at 74.18 per cent, the NGX Lotus II at 73.34 per cent, the Banking Index at 48.15 per cent, the Pension Index at 52.72 per cent and the Industrial Goods Index at 53.89 per cent.”
For investors, Kurfi recommended a focus on blue-chip stocks with strong fundamentals and insurance companies, particularly those that have diversified into asset management, including pension fund administration.
He advised portfolio diversification to include fixed-income instruments for balance, adding that the capital market remains the best hedge against inflation and naira devaluation in the current economic climate.
