As Nigeria steps into a politically sensitive year, organised labour has warned that without deep structural economic reforms, stronger social protection systems and sincere engagement with trade unions, 2026 may be marked by heightened industrial unrest, GLORIA NWAFOR reports.

For millions of Nigerian workers, 2025 was a year of hard choices and shrinking welfare. Many skipped meals to meet rent obligations, endured longer commuting to cut transport costs or juggled multiple informal jobs to survive falling real incomes. Families struggled to afford quality education, healthcare and nutrition, while public sector workers endured delayed salaries.

Labour leaders said the cumulative effect has been a steady decline not just in financial wellbeing, but also in opportunity, security and hope.

With inflation eating deep into the gains of the N70,000 national minimum wage –largely due to fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation – the organised labour is already warming up for renewed tripartite engagements in 2026 and negotiations ahead of a new minimum wage expected in 2027.

However, labour experts warned that if these engagements are poorly managed, Nigeria could witness a fresh cycle of strikes and industrial actions. They caution that without comprehensive reforms, industrial crisis may continue to define labour-government relations.

As economic and political activities unfold in 2026, analysts say the risk of industrial action could intensify if hardship, poverty, and insecurity persist without relief. They argued that stalled negotiations, outdated labour laws and shrinking purchasing power may leave workers increasingly unwilling to accept partial or delayed settlements.

President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Joe Ajaero, said Nigerian workers are operating under extreme stress, with little room for savings, asset accumulation or long-term security.

According to him, workers are only able to resist policies that impose suffering when they mobilise collectively. He noted that prolonged economic insecurity deepens psychological and social pressures that go beyond income alone.

Ajaero said the pre-election environment makes labour-government relations even more critical, stressing that 2026 could either foster a cooperative tripartite climate or degenerate into confrontation.

He urged the government to tackle rising poverty through intentional social safety nets, wage increases, mass housing schemes, and affordable transportation.

“Government must be deliberate. Those who truly deserve conditional cash transfers should benefit, not people who are already working and earning incomes. The provision of 90 CNG buses for labour is a drop in the ocean. Labour can be used as a vehicle to deliver social protection that genuinely touches people’s lives,” he said.

Immediate past Deputy President of the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC), Dr Tommy Okon, said the government must create an enabling environment and cultivate a symbiotic relationship with organised labour.

He warned that frequent resort to the courts to restrain strikes was counterproductive, stressing that industrial action remains a fundamental right of workers.

“A continued threat of strikes is inimical to governance, but intimidation through the courts is not the answer. Harmony comes from dialogue, not coercion,” Okon said.

On poverty and social protection, he also called for a more credible and transparent social register to ensure that support reaches the poorest Nigerians, especially in the face of persistent inflation.

Chairperson of the Lagos State Council of the NLC, Agnes Sessi, emphasised the urgency of paying a living wage, warning that inflation continues to erode workers’ incomes.

She urged the government to stabilise the economy, address insecurity, and ensure stakeholder consultations before implementing major policies, including the new tax regime, which she said appeared unfavourable to workers.

National President of the Precision, Electrical and Related Equipment Senior Staff Association (PERESSA), Rufus Olusesan, called on labour to be proactive in 2026, citing the impact of high electricity tariffs, exchange rate volatility, job losses, and unsold inventories in the manufacturing sector due to weak purchasing power.

He urged the government to tackle insecurity to guarantee food security, reduce interest rates to stimulate local production, revive the Ajaokuta Steel Company, and adopt a more labour-friendly posture.

General Secretary of the Federation of Informal Workers Organisation of Nigeria (FIWON), Gbenga Komolafe, said that while 2025 ended with modest gains—such as relative exchange rate stability, slight declines in inflation, and marginal reductions in fuel prices—Nigeria’s overall fiscal and infrastructure challenges remained severe.

He expressed concern over rising public debt, widespread insecurity, and persistent electricity supply failures, including repeated national grid collapses.

Komolafe said expectations for 2026 include stronger macroeconomic stabilisation, improved electricity supply, and reduced energy costs, which could enhance productivity and economic growth.

He also raised concerns about the new tax law that took effect on January 1, describing it as controversial,

particularly from the perspective of the informal sector.
He welcomed recent momentum on extending social protection to informal workers, citing the National Dialogue on Social Protection organised by the Federal Ministry of Labour with support from the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

FIWON, he said, is advocating pension support for informal workers, expanded health insurance for vulnerable groups, extension of employee compensation coverage, and improved occupational safety in the informal economy.

Komolafe expressed hope that the ongoing review of the National Social Protection Policy would incorporate these concerns, noting that countries with robust social protection systems tend to enjoy greater security and social stability.

“In a pre-election year, the extent to which informal workers are included in social protection will be a major test of the government’s commitment to equitable growth and lasting social peace,” he said.