Nigeria’s inflation expectations index fell marginally to 41.4 points in January 2026 from 41.7 points in December 2025, reflecting a slight improvement in price outlook among consumers and businesses.

Data from the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that although sentiment improved, rising energy costs, transport expenses and exchange rate pressure continue to weigh heavily on households and firms.

About 49.5 per cent of respondents described inflation as high in January, compared with 50.2 per cent in December, the survey said.
The survey tracks how households and businesses view current price levels and what they expect soon.

The modest improvement was driven mainly by business respondents. The share of firms that rated inflation as moderate shifted to 45.2 per cent from 48.3 per cent previously.

By firm size, micro businesses recorded the highest perception of rising prices at 51.2 per cent. Large firms followed at 49.8 per cent, while medium-sized businesses reported 42.2 per cent. Small firms posted the lowest reading at 40.8 per cent.

Location also shaped household experiences. Rural residents reported higher inflation pressure than urban dwellers. About 55 per cent of rural respondents perceived inflation as high, compared with 53.9 per cent in cities.

Also, income levels showed a clear divide. Households earning between N150,001 and N200,000 monthly reported the strongest inflation pressure at 61.2 per cent, suggesting that middle-income earners are feeling the intense pressure.

By contrast, those earning below N30,000 monthly recorded 47.6 per cent, indicating relatively lower exposure or more limited consumption patterns.

Energy costs remained the biggest source of concern. Businesses scored petrol, diesel and electricity pressures at 83.5 per cent, while households rated them at 82.8 per cent, making energy the dominant inflation driver.

Transport costs ranked next, with businesses scoring 79.8 per cent and households 82 per cent, highlighting the ripple effect of fuel prices across logistics and daily mobility.

Respondents also pointed to exchange rate swings, insecurity and interest rate movements as key factors shaping inflation expectations. The weaker naira has pushed up import costs, while security challenges continue to disrupt farming and distribution, adding pressure to food prices.

Natural disasters and infrastructure gaps were seen as less significant drivers. Businesses scored natural disasters at 54 per cent and households 58.5 per cent.

The survey also found that 86 per cent of participants say central bank communication influences their inflation outlook, underlining the role of policy guidance in shaping public expectations.

Looking ahead, expectations remain largely stable. About 45.9 per cent of respondents expect their spending to rise in the next month, while the same proportion believed expenditure would remain unchanged.
Only 8.1 per cent anticipate a drop in spending.