In a statement issued on Sunday in Abuja, the Energy Transparency and Market Justice Initiative (ETMJI) cauPtioned that approvals granted by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) could produce unintended economic consequences if not carefully managed.

President of the group, Salako Kareem, said Nigeria is currently at a critical stage in its energy transition, stressing that policy choices made now will determine whether the country finally overcomes its decades-long reliance on imported refined petroleum products.

Kareem acknowledged the regulator’s responsibility to guarantee adequate fuel supply but warned that expanding import permissions at this stage could weaken the policy direction required to stimulate local refining capacity and ensure long-term stability in the petroleum sector.

“Our respectful appeal to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is that decisions concerning petrol importation must be carefully weighed against their long-term economic consequences,” Kareem said.

“Nigeria has spent decades grappling with the paradox of being a major crude oil producer while remaining heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products. Any policy action that appears to reopen the floodgates of importation may slow down the progress already made toward strengthening domestic refining capacity.”

He warned that increased petrol imports could exert additional pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves, particularly at a time when the government is pursuing difficult economic reforms aimed at stabilising the naira and restoring fiscal discipline.

“For many years, Nigeria has lost enormous volumes of foreign exchange importing petroleum products that could ideally be refined locally,” Kareem said.

“If import volumes begin to rise again, demand for foreign currency will inevitably increase. This could place renewed strain on the naira and undermine the broader economic stabilisation programme currently being pursued.”
The group also cautioned that excessive reliance on imported petrol could create opportunities for product dumping and the entry of substandard fuel into the Nigerian market.

According to Kareem, Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector has historically struggled with quality control issues whenever importation becomes widespread, largely because imported fuel often passes through multiple intermediaries before reaching domestic depots.

“One of the lessons from the past is that when imports dominate the supply chain, the market can become vulnerable to the dumping of inferior petroleum products,” he said.

“This not only creates regulatory complications but also exposes Nigerian consumers to fuels that may damage vehicles, affect industrial machinery and impose hidden economic costs on the country.”

He added that encouraging domestic refining and strengthening local supply chains would improve product traceability while enhancing transparency in the downstream market.

Kareem clarified that the group’s intervention should not be interpreted as criticism of the NMDPRA, noting that regulators often face complex decisions in ensuring fuel supply stability in a volatile global energy market.

However, he stressed that short-term supply management must not undermine long-term national objectives in the petroleum sector.

“We recognise that the regulator has the responsibility to ensure Nigerians do not experience fuel shortages, and that duty is extremely important,” he said.

• An energy policy advocacy group has urged Bola Ahmed Tinubu to carefully review the broader economic implications of newly issued permits allowing marketers to import petrol into the country, warning that the move could weaken Nigeria’s push for domestic refining and place additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves.