Food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa is set to worsen sharply as rising global food prices and inflation strain household incomes, with more than 20 million people at risk of falling into hunger, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In its April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa titled “Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure,” the IMF said the region is facing renewed pressure on living standards despite earlier economic gains, warning that higher food costs driven by global shocks are rapidly eroding purchasing power and deepening vulnerability among low-income households.

The report released yesterday noted that the region entered 2026 with relatively strong economic momentum following its fastest growth in a decade in 2025, supported by improved domestic policy management, easing inflation, and favourable global conditions.

However, it warned that those gains are now under threat from renewed global disruptions, rising commodity prices, and tightening financial conditions.

This is coming as The Guardian earlier reported that the IMF had cut Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent, citing mounting global and domestic pressures, underscoring the fragile outlook for one of the largest economies in the region.

The report stated that “poverty, food insecurity, and other social indicators, already weakened by the pandemic, face renewed headwinds from declining foreign aid and rising food prices,” adding that a 20 per cent increase in international food prices could push more than 20 million people into moderate or severe food insecurity across the region.

The warning comes as a fresh supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, which is driving up the cost of essential commodities, including food, fuel and fertiliser. The IMF noted that higher fertiliser prices are already posing risks to agricultural output, while rising shipping costs are increasing the price of imported food across many countries.

Beyond commodity prices, the Fund highlighted broader spillover effects from the global crisis, including weakening trade relations, declining tourism and remittance inflows, and rising risk aversion among investors, all of which are tightening access to international financing and limiting fiscal buffers across the region.

These pressures are feeding into inflation, which is projected to rise to 5.0 per cent by the end of 2026 from 3.4 per cent in 2025, reversing earlier gains achieved through lower global food and oil prices and tighter monetary policies.

The IMF also warned that prolonged global tensions could further worsen the outlook, increase inflationary pressures and reduce overall economic output in the region.

The Fund observed that the burden of rising food prices is falling disproportionately on oil-importing and low-income countries, where households spend a larger share of their income on food. In these economies, worsening trade balances, higher import costs, and currency pressures are further amplifying the cost-of-living crisis, while performance remains uneven compared to resource-rich economies.

It warned that the situation could deteriorate further if the conflict persists, as prolonged disruptions are expected to push food, fertiliser and energy prices even higher, with severe consequences for both growth and food access.

While sub-Saharan Africa recorded strong growth of about 4.5 per cent in 2025, the fastest in a decade, the IMF said those gains are now under threat, with growth projected to slow to 4.3 per cent in 2026 amid rising inflation, weakening external balances, and tighter financial markets.

The report stressed that beyond macroeconomic indicators, the real concern lies in the impact on households, warning that declining incomes and rising prices are undermining food security and reversing progress made in recent years.

To cushion the impact, the IMF advised governments to prioritise targeted and time-bound support for vulnerable populations, particularly to protect access to food, while maintaining efforts to stabilise inflation.

It added that protecting food security must remain central to policy responses, even as countries balance fiscal pressures and pursue broader economic reforms aimed at strengthening resilience and supporting long-term growth.