Nigeria’s agriculture sector, which contributes between 23 and 24 per cent to Gross Domestic Product and employs about 60 to 70 per cent of the labour force, is showing early signs of recovery after years of structural challenges.

However, experts and government officials say the gains remain fragile and could be reversed without sustained investment and reforms.

Stakeholders spoke at the 2026 Vanguard Economic Discourse in Lagos, where they agreed that food security is not only a social concern but also central to economic stability and investor confidence.

In his opening remarks, Vanguard Editor-in-Chief, Eze Anaba, said food affordability remains the clearest measure of whether economic policies are working. An economy where citizens cannot afford food, he said, cannot be considered to be performing.

The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, represented by Engr. Maruf Ajenifuja, said prices of key food items had dropped by up to 50 per cent, while food inflation declined to 8.98 per cent in January — the first single-digit rate in a decade.

He attributed the improvement to government interventions, including the National Agricultural Growth Scheme, which has supported over 622,000 farmers and improved yields by up to 30 per cent in participating states. He also cited the distribution of more than two million bags of fertiliser to over one million farmers.

However, Ajenifuja warned that the recovery is not yet secure. He said fertiliser remains the biggest cost for farmers, priced at about N60,000 per bag, making it unaffordable for many smallholder farmers. Without continued support, he noted, yields could drop from three to four metric tonnes per hectare to about 1.5 metric tonnes, reversing recent gains.

In his keynote address, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Representative to Nigeria, Hussein Gadain, said the country’s food system is under pressure from insecurity, climate shocks and macroeconomic challenges. He noted that these factors are reducing household incomes, increasing malnutrition risks and weakening social stability, with implications for the broader economy.

Gadain called for increased and better-targeted investment in agriculture, improved rural security, climate-resilient farming systems, stronger data for policymaking and better alignment between agricultural training and industry needs.

“Food security relies on availability, access, utilisation and stability. It is not achieved on the farm alone,” he said, warning that “we lose up to 70 per cent of farm produce” due to inefficiencies.

The Minister of Livestock Development, Alhaji Idi Mukhtar Maiha, highlighted the livestock sub-sector as a major but underutilised economic asset. Panellists said the sector holds significant potential for rural income and nutrition but lacks the policy support needed for large-scale development.

Stakeholders stressed that reforms would yield limited results if farmers continue to abandon their land due to violence. They also called for improved access to credit, faster rural infrastructure development and greater youth participation across the agricultural value chain.

The Vanguard Economic Discourse, now in its ninth year, remains a key platform for dialogue between the public and private sectors on economic policy.