By Ighodalo Clement Eromosele

It is indisputable that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu inherited a battered economy from the late President Mohammed Buhari administration which for eight years was rudderless creating a state of anomie characterised by scorching insecurity and asphyxiating debt burden, with debt service –to revenue ratio of up to 90 per cent in the first half of 2023 and abuse of Ways and Means advances from the Central Bank of Nigeria of close to N30 trillion. President Tinubu tacitly said that government is a continuum hoping to correct errors of his predecessor and to move on.

He could say so cavalierly, if not dismissive of the rot, because it is the same party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) that was in government over the period. He is attempting to re-set the Nigerian economy on bold policies which are generally hurting to ordinary citizens with a promise that in due course all will be well. But the macroeconomic indicators– GDP growth (3.87 per cent, 2025), debt service to revenue ratio of 90 per cent (as of Q1 2026), inflation rate (15.38 per cent, 2026), exchange rate (N1,371, 2026), external reserves ($49.44 billion, Q1, 2026) and crude oil production (1.84mbpd, 2026) – arising therefrom are not comforting but appear satisfactory in the opinions of government and some notable economists admitting however that the conditions at the microeconomic levels are challenging with about 140 million Nigerians multi-dimensionally poor amid rising cost of living and high food inflation (10.84 per cent, 2025). It is understandable that the APC-led government is concerned with this assessment as we approach a general election year.

It is instructive to recall that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was in government for sixteen years (1999 -2015). By April, 2007, the twilight of President Obasanjo administration, real GDP growth rate was 6.59 per cent; external reserve, $43.53; exchange rate, N127.98/$ against the backdrop of $18 billion of debt cancellation by the Paris Club of creditors on payment of about $12 billion by Nigeria to clear the Augean stable in debt overhang.

In 2014, again in the twilight of President Jonathan administration, real GDP growth rate was over 6 per cent in the three quarters and inflation was stable at 8.3 per cent. External reserve was $42.85 in January dropping to $34.24 in December 2014 due to global drop in crude oil prices. Clearly the economy was on good footing for most part of PDP in government albeit afflicted with and tolerant of corruption. Party supremacy was diminished with chairmen answerable to the President or Governor at the Federal or State level respectively as leaders.

The party boasted arrogantly that it will rule for sixty years in flagrant disregard to the immutable fact that God rules in the affairs of nations (Daniel 4:17) and unmindful of the lessons from the Titanic which sank irretrievably in the North Atlantic Ocean on April 15, 1912 on hitting an iceberg, when before the maiden voyage, it was believed, allegedly, to be unsinkable, not even by God. Now, the PDP does not qualify to be described as a viable and credible opposition party, as it battles existential threats on many fronts. The lessons of history are there freely for the wise, and in the instance, for any political party now exercising the instrument of power.

Coming in 2015 on the heels of pervasive disenchantment with administration of President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, the APC’s manifesto held a lot of promise for many Nigerians and much more, having the persona of Mohammadu Buhari as the flag bearer, a man known at the time, rightly or wrongly, as anti-corruption Czar with zero tolerance for indiscipline. Their expectation was a turn-around of the Nigeria’s political economy under his watch and demonstration of fiscal discipline in matters of progressive governance.

These expectations were reinforced when on inauguration he declared: “I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody”, suggesting transparency in government anchored on meritocracy. On corruption, he declared: “if we don’t kill corruption, corruption will kill Nigeria”, again leaving no one in doubt of his plans to deal ruthlessly with corruption cases. Further he pledged to subdue Boko Haram whose activities had ravaged large swathes of the northeast.

Now, key aspects of the APC’s manifesto include: security and anti-corruption, reforming the justice system, increase in power generation up to40,000 megawatts in four to eight years and distribution, devolution of power (“initiate action to amend our Constitution ——-in order entrench Federalism and the Federal Spirit”), food security, affordable health care and free and qualitative primary and secondary education to all but to tertiary for women. Summarised as Five-Point Agenda, President Buhari did not implement the key elements of the APC’s manifesto for eight years leaving a parlous economy challenged on multiple fronts by insecurity on a wide scale and free-for-all corruption for his successor.

Under his watch corruption mushroomed, now evident in prosecution of some of his principal personae for alleged varied offences in this regard. Indeed, President Buhari was nepotistic, an invidious form of corruption glaringin the many appointments into federal agencies.Yet, lest we forget, he made failed attempts three times to be President succeeding under the umbrella of the APC in 2015 only to disappoint many who had high expectations of him. The compelling question is: why is the desperation for the office of President, Federal Republic of Nigeria by all manner of persons? The answer resides in faulty governance structure and faulty leadership recruitment processes. The tragedy in all this is that manifesto, a key instrument and roadmap of party, is meaningless.

President Tinubu’s government appears to have clearly defined polices, fiscal and monetary, deploying persons some of who are technocrats to steer the affairs of State. His renewed hope agenda is an attempt to redress loss of confidence in APC-led government by the citizens. However, the dividends of his policies are percolating too slowly to ordinary Nigerians who are distressed, a matter that could inform voter’s choices infree and fair election.

But the unprecedented defections by notable members of other parties to APC –legislators and governors, some of who have impressive record of performance in their States- are, against this backdrop, enigmatic and incomprehensible. Are defections to stave off possible prosecution for malfeasance in office at the end of tenure or for impressive performance by the APC-led government at all levels?

The travesty of defections is that it involves serial defectors, some of up to four times. Defections have become so fluid ostensibly because the Nigerian Constitution (1999) is mute on the subject as pertaining to governors, and nebulous in the provisions for legislators, both of which are unhelpful for development of political party structures.

To speak of opposition party in the circumstance is anomalous because by all measures, the so-called political parties are indistinguishable. They are special purpose vehicles bereft of ideological identities.

Now, the APC is formidable from the rank and file of membership across the country while the other parties are becoming atrophied fueling the perception of an emerging one-party state. Regrettably the other parties have so far not offered credible alternative action plan(s) to challenge the policies of the APC-led government and to instill confidence in Nigerians. They are unable to do so, steeped in existential crises arising from lack of internal party democracy, failure to abide by rules of parties and alleged interference by external forces. APC is confident that victory is assured in 2027 general elections particularly for the presidential election in light of its formidable membership profile and absence of strong platforms for probable challengers for the office of President many of who are now, figuratively, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), a situation that could breed arrogance of the party. The palpable disarray of the other parties ensconced in varied litigations is unhelpful to the Nigerian State and the electoral process. The citizens are circumscribed in choices available to them breeding social discontent and desperation of some members of the political class. Judicial pronouncements and counter pronouncements by courts have been less than salutary, in many cases very ambivalent casting aspersions on Nigeria’s jurisprudence and administration of justice system as pertaining to political cases.

One commendable initiative of Tinubu’s germent is clearance of backlog of arrears to federal employees and retirees for which it sought funds from the bond market to the tune of N758 billion. This was a bold initiative for which the Finance and Coordinating Minister of the economy at the time, Mr Wale Edun, a technocrat, is deserving of commendation. Before then retirees on Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), waited for up to eighteen months to have the component of Defined Benefit in arrears to be added to accruals from CPS before disbursement by PENCOM to retirees through their respective Pension Fund Administrators (PFA). It is hoped that the current Finance and Coordinating Minister of the economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, will continue the good work of Wale Edun in this regard.

Another initiative is the Electricity Act signed into law in June 2023 by President Tinubu shortly after assumption of office to decentralise operational chains of the sector – generation, transmission and distribution. It is instructive that about fifteen States have established regulatory frameworks in this regard.

Nigeria has been in a state of flux and chaotic since return to democratic governance in 1979. No thanks to the Constitutions 1979, 1999 and series of military interregna all of which set the framework for disorderlinessin the body politic reminiscent of the Biblical Tower of Babel and the resultant Sisyphean national development paradigms in the social, political and economic spheres. Nigeria is not making progress and the political class, living large on the State, is insensitive. The struggle for political offices is clearly not for service but for prebendalism on the Nigerian State. It is more so for control of an over-centralised governance structure which has been inimical to progress.This structure must be de-centralised in power, resources and responsibilities to the States as federating units, anchored on the principle of subsidiarity so that Nigeria may make progress. Now that President Tinubu is in the saddle, there are expectations based on certain perception of him – a democrat and a federalist. Is the perception as federalist correct to justify the expectation that he will embark on political reform to entrench true federalism and the federal spirit in accord with APC’s manifesto or would he demystify it, in a manner of speaking, signaling a déjà vu? The answer remains to be seen.

Professor Eromosele is former deputy vice-chancellor, FUNAAB, Abeokuta.