… Forecasts inflation to drop to single digits

… Says recovery driven by reforms, non-oil revenue expansion

The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER), in its medium-term outlook unveiled on Monday, has disclosed that Nigeria’s economy is set for a steady recovery over the next three years.

According to the report by the NISER, Gross Domestic Product growth was projected to hit 5.02 percent by 2028 while headline inflation plunges to single digits.

With the projections contained in the institute’s 2026–2028 macroeconomic forecast, it was revealed that the forecast will signal a turnaround from the persistent inflationary pressures and expansion that have depicted the country regarded as Africa’s largest economy in recent years.

While presenting the outlook at the NISER Research Seminar Series with the theme ‘Prospects for the Nigerian Economy, 2026–2028,’ in Ibadan, researchers attributed the expected gains to ongoing fiscal reforms, improved revenue mobilization, and non-oil sector growth.

The seminar brought together policymakers, researchers, academics, development practitioners, as well as stakeholders from both the public and private sectors to discuss the outlook for the Nigerian economy and policy measures needed to sustain macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth over the medium term.

During the seminar, GDP growth was forecasted to rise from 3.92 per cent in 2025 to 4.72 per cent this year, then to 4.85 per cent in 2027 before reaching 5.02 per cent in 2028.

The projected expansion, NISER revealed, hinged on continued policy consistency, infrastructure development, and exchange rate stability, as well as what it described as favorable global economic conditions.

The institute projected consumer price increases to moderate from 15.15 per cent in 2025 to 11.66 per cent in 2026, then to 7.86 per cent in 2027, before settling at 5.61 per cent in 2028, a level last seen more than a decade ago.

With food inflation tagged as a key driver of Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis, it was also forecast to ease gradually, with NISER linking the projected decline to anticipated improvements in agricultural production, supported by exchange rate stability and tighter monetary policy measures.

NISER maintained that the debt service-to-revenue ratio, which strained government finances severely in the early 2020s, is expected to remain at more sustainable levels throughout the forecast horizon.

According to the institute, ongoing efforts to broaden the tax base, expand non-oil revenue sources, and implement fiscal reforms are already yielding positive results.

“The Nigerian economy is expected to experience gradual stabilization and moderate recovery over the next three years. These implementation mechanisms are needed at national and sub-national levels,” the NISER report stated.

However, NISER warned that sustaining the projected gains would require policy consistency, effective implementation of reforms, and targeted investment in productive sectors.

The meeting also harped on the need for strengthened institutional mechanisms that will improve jobs, incomes, productivity, access to services, and business opportunities.