If the Customs and Excise Tariff (Consolidation) Act (Amendment) Bill 2025 is passed into law, Nigeria stands to lose an estimated N2.8 trillion in value chain activity within the first six to twelve months, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has warned.

MAN Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, regretted that the monumental loss could travel from factory floors in Lagos and Kano to sugarcane farms in Benue and roadside kiosks of tens of millions of Nigerians who earn their living selling beverages.

He urged the Federal Government to maintain a balanced, evidence-based and coordinated approach to excise taxation.

He warned that recent proposals to significantly increase taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) as contained in the CETA Bill 2025, which seeks to transition excise taxation on SSBs from the current specific rate of N10/L to ‘a percentage levy of retail price’, could undermine industrial growth, job creation, investor confidence and broader macroeconomic stability.

While reaffirming support for government revenue generation and public health objectives, he said that fiscal policy must remain predictable, context-specific and grounded in empirical evidence to avoid unintended economic and social consequences.

“The agricultural value chain, particularly sugarcane growers operating under the Nigeria Sugar Master Plan (NSMP II), which the NAD sector actively supports through backward integration, begins to feel the withdrawal of off-take commitments. Conservative estimates place the near-term sectoral gross value added loss at between N600 billion and N1.2 trillion within the first six months alone, against a 2023 baseline of N14.3 trillion,” he said.

He said PwC projections indicated that a 10 to 20 per cent increase in excise duties alone could shrink sectoral employment from 1.5 to 1.2 million workers or fewer by 2030. Roles that would be lost sustain Nigeria’s working poor: factory operatives, truck drivers, market traders, kiosk owners and smallholder farmers, he said.

“The estimated value chain loss over the six to 12-month period following enactment falls between N2.5 trillion and N2.8 trillion. The NAD sector remains one of the most resilient pillars of Nigeria’s manufacturing, accounting for approximately 33 per cent of manufacturing output and sustaining over 1.5 million direct and indirect jobs,” he noted.