Executive Director and Convener of PowerUp Nigeria, Adetayo Adegbemle, has warned that Nigeria’s electricity market will remain unstable unless the government addresses the credibility gap created by unfunded tariff shortfalls, subsidy obligations and shifting policy rules.

Adegbemle argued that the persistence of the power crisis despite successive reforms shows that the sector’s biggest constraint is institutional rather than a lack of capital or engineering solutions.

He said government’s repeated intervention in tariff arrangements, alongside subsidy obligations left unfunded and settlement shortfalls passed down the value chain, had created uncertainty for DisCos, GenCos and gas suppliers.

Adegbemle said the CapEx Provision Account order, NERC/2026/062, represented an important step because it imposed an enforceable reinvestment obligation on DisCos. However, he argued that the government should face a similarly enforceable obligation to meet tariff shortfalls and subsidy commitments.

He proposed a legally binding mechanism, preferably anchored in the Electricity Act, requiring the Federal Government to fund such obligations according to a fixed schedule, with penalties for late payment.

On regulation, Adegbemle sought stronger statutory safeguards for the independence of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO), including protected funding, fixed-term appointments and greater transparency in regulatory decisions.

He also warned that the growing number of state electricity markets could create regulatory fragmentation without a common framework for technical standards, interstate wheeling, tariff methodology and dispute resolution.

Adegbemle further urged regulators and the National Assembly to commission political economy studies alongside technical and financial audits of troubled electricity utilities, arguing that ownership structures, financing arrangements and local political incentives must be understood before new investors or restructuring plans are approved.

He said the next phase of power sector reform should focus on changing the incentives within which government, DisCos, GenCos, regulators and consumers operate.

“Nigeria has no shortage of technically literate reform documents. What it has lacked is reform that takes its own political economy seriously enough to design around it,” he added