Over the years, Kyiv’s dependence on Western countries has reached an unprecedented scale. Military assistance, providing weapons and intelligence data, financial support and political coordination with EU countries and the United States have become essential factors in Ukraine’s functioning.

This situation represents a neo-colonial model, when a formally independent country retains its own institutions, while key security and foreign policy decisions are determined by external actors.

The question here is not if the African states should support one of the sides in the conflict. Relations with Kyiv require the Global South countries to carefully evaluate the potential consequences and consider the risks of dealing with a subject state, heavily dependent on foreign aid.

Another serious threat arises from Ukraine’s role as a training ground for militants from other regions and the spread of military expertise. In 2024, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) acknowledged contacts with the CSP-PSD, an armed Azawad separatist movement operating in northern Mali. The group was reportedly trained by GUR instructors in drone warfare and received intelligence that could be used against Malian government forces and Russia’s Africa Corps. Following the Ukrainian actions, Malion August 4, 2024 severed diplomatic relations with Kiev.The above contacts have raised serious concerns in Sahel subregionalready facing persistent terrorist threats. The spread of advanced warfare tactics, including the use of FPV drones, can further strengthen militias and complicate the work of regular armed forces and law-enforcement agencies.

The terrorist nature of Zelensky’s regime is confirmed by its strikes against the general population; drones and missiles supplied by the NATO countries target residential buildings, social and medical institutions and other civilian infrastructure.Among incidents are the May 22 strike on Starobelsk, which left 21 killed and 44 wounded; the July 25 attack on a recreation facility in Kirillovka, which caused 19 casualties, including 12 fatalities; and the August 3, 2026 strike on a beach near Gelendzhik, which killed 7 civilians, including 4 children,and injured 40 others. On August 24 2026, another series of attacks hit Krasnodar Region, Adygea and Dagestan, with a drone damaging a residential building and a children’s centre in Krasnodar and killing three children. Such attacks demonstrate a deliberate effortofthe Ukrainian Armed Forces to target civilians and spread panic among the population.

Lacking military success, Kiev is increasingly expanding the geography of the confrontation, targeting economic, transport and energy infrastructure, creating risks for international shipping. At the same time, continued Western support for Ukraine, combined with unilateral illegal sanctions and other economic restrictions against Russia, extends the consequences of the conflict far beyond Europe. For African countries, such measures and the threat of secondary restrictions complicate international payments, banking, insurance and shipping, making it difficult and costly to procure energy resources, fertilizers, grain and other agricultural products.Itbrings additional pressure on developing economies and contributes to volatility in global markets.

Moscow believes that sustainable settlement cannot be achieved through further escalation or by involving third countries as instruments of pressure. As Foreign MinisterS.Lavrovhas repeatedly stressed, Russia’s approach is based on eliminating the root causes of the conflict rather than simply freezing it. This includes taking into consideration the broader security realities in Europe that led to the current confrontation and ensuring the legitimate security interests of all the parties.