The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)has projected Nigeria’s coffee output to decline from 40,800 bags yearly to 39,900 in 2028, if the current trend in its cultivation continues.

Compared to its continental peers – Ethiopia and Uganda, producing equivalent of 11.1million bags and 6.9 million bags respectively, and earning a record over $1.4b and $2b respectively from coffee exports in 2025. Nigeria is not even among Africa’s top 10 coffee producers.

The Cocoa and Coffee Farmers Alliance Association of Africa (COCEFAAA), which expressed worries on this projection, identified abandonment at the base; absence of national coffee framework; market access gap; quality gap and underutilised potential; and fragmentation at scale, as some of the structural gaps that have collectively strangled the industry.

At the Inauguration of the Nigeria Coffee Revival Initiative (NCRI) Steering Committee – a project facilitated by COCEFAAA, in collaboration with the Federal Ministry Of Agriculture and Food Security, Cocoa Research Institute Of Nigeria (CRIN), and 14 coffee-producing states, among others, the Global President of COCEFAAA and National Project Coordinator, Nigeria Coffee Revival Initiative, Comrade Adeola Adegoke, said the body did not come to Nigeria to introduce a new idea, but to restore a displaced legacy with data, discipline, and the full weight of continental solidarity.

He said: “Coffee, like cocoa, is a continental crop. Africa accounts for roughly 12.5 per cent of global coffee production – down from 27.2 per cent in the 1970s. That 14.5 – percentage-point collapse did not happen by accident. It happened because African coffee farmers were abandoned by policy, by investment, and by institutional representation.

“COFAAA was already positioned to close that gap for cocoa. The logic of expanding to include coffee was not ambition for its own sake, it was institutional responsibility. And so COCEFAAA was born and anchored by the same foundational principles, but with a broader mandate: to advocate for, support, coordinate, and amplify the voice of both cocoa and coffee farmers across the African continent.”

Quoting the Perfect Daily Grind 2021, which estimates that there are 10,000 smallholder coffee farmers in Nigeria spread across 14 states – Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Kogi, Cross River, Osun, Ekiti, Edo, Imo, Delta, Abia, Kwara, Plateau and Taraba states, Adegoke said they accounted for 90 per cent of all coffee exports, he lamented that smallholders’ coffee farmers carry the weight of that output.

“And yet, over 90 per cent of them cite poor pricing and a total absence of market information as the primary reasons they have reduced or abandoned coffee cultivation entirely. Farms have aged tree stock, and absence of research and development investment to bridge the gap. Soils are nutrient-depleted, just as extension services are virtually non-existent. The average coffee farmer in Nigeria is ageing, and there is no organised pathway to transfer skills or rejuvenate this base.

“Through the NCRI, we will establish structured farmer support programmes, combining agronomic training, access to certified improved seedlings through CRIN-accredited channels, cooperative formation, and fair pricing frameworks.

“We will engage the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria, Nigerian Export Promotion Council, International Institute for Tropical Agriculture, National Coffee and Tea Association of Nigeria, and fourteen coffee-producing partnering states under the NCRI to advocate for and co-draft a Nigeria Coffee Sector Development Policy – one that incentivises local production, regulates import substitution, and creates an enabling environment for private investment,” he said.

In his goodwill message, the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari said the global coffee market is experiencing unprecedented dynamics. He said specialty and organic coffee sectors are booming, with projections showing that the domestic specialty market alone has potential to scale significantly over the next decade.

“Yet, while global demand surges, Nigeria’s historical coffee production has remained quiet-hindered by aging trees, underinvestment and a lack of structured marketing channels. The revitalisation of Nigeria’s coffee industry is not just a nostalgic pursuit of old agricultural glories: it is a strategic, non-negotiable imperative for sustainable economic growth, aggressive export development and climate resilience.

He stressed that the country’s economic reality demands rapid diversification away from crude oil, which the current administration is showcasing through its Renewed Hope Agendas. He added that revitalising the coffee sector offers an immediate remedy to rural poverty and unemployment.

“Coffee is not just a crop; it is a massive value chain. By investing heavily in both Arabica and Robusta production, we can create millions of jobs. I am talking about jobs for our youth as modern agronomists, jobs for women in post-harvest processing and opportunities for innovative tech entrepreneurs building digital supply chains.

“Furthermore, we must move away from the colonial model of exporting raw, green beans. True sustainability lies in domestic value addition. We must incentivize the establishment of local roasteries and processing plants. Let the world drink coffee that is not only grown in Nigeria but roasted packaged and branded right here in Nigeria. This is how we keep the wealth within our borders and build a robust self-sustaining economic ecosystem,” he said.

In her speech, the Chief Executive Officer, Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Mrs Nonye Ayeni, said the project aligns strongly with the Federal Government’s agenda on economic diversification, increased non-oil exports, job creation, and sustainable agricultural development.

She said the establishment of the Steering Committee demonstrates a commendable commitment toward transforming the sector through improved governance, farm rehabilitation, agronomic best practices, capacity building, value addition, and enhanced market access.

“The NEPC remains committed to supporting initiatives that promote export competitiveness, improve product quality, certification and expand market opportunities for Nigerian agricultural commodities, processed and valued added goods. We believe that with effective collaboration among stakeholders, Nigeria can reclaim its pride of place in the global coffee market by enhancing the coffee value chains for greater foreign exchange earnings.”