Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr Chinyere Almona, said the latest inflation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) only indicates price growth moderation and not a structural turning point.
  Speaking yesterday in Lagos, Almona said that while the outcome reflects an easing in short-term price momentum, the chamber considers the trend to be disinflationary but fragile.
 
She said the decline is driven by a combination of cyclical, base-effect and policy-induced factors rather than any deep structural adjustment.
  From a decomposition standpoint, she said, the slowdown is largely attributable to food price deceleration, exchange rate appreciation and relative stability in domestic energy prices.
 
“The reduction in food inflation reflects improved post-harvest supply conditions and demand normalisation after the festive period. Exchange rate gains moderated imported inflation and FX-pass-through into the core basket, while stable PMS pricing reduced second-round transport and logistics effects. These developments jointly lowered headline pressure in the short run and improved inflation expectations,” she said.
 She noted that a non-trivial portion of the year-on-year decline is influenced by base effects arising from the CPI rebasing and a lower comparison benchmark, implying that the headline improvement partly reflects statistical normalisation rather than a durable contraction in underlying cost drivers.
 
This interpretation, the LCCI DG said, is reinforced by the persistence of elevated core inflation, which signals that structural pressures from electricity tariffs, transport costs, rents and imported intermediate inputs remain embedded in the price system.
 Decrying the situation for businesses in the country, she said the current inflation outcome suggests a transition from an acceleration phase to a disinflation phase, but not yet to price stability.
 
“The economy remains vulnerable to upside inflation risks from food supply disruptions, climate variability, insecurity in agricultural belts, oil price volatility and renewed exchange rate pressure. Consequently, the present moderation should be interpreted as a temporary easing of inflationary momentum, not yet a convergence toward a low and stable inflation regime.
 “For the private sector, the emerging trend improves short-term price predictability and slightly reduces cost volatility, supporting inventory planning and near-term pricing strategies.”
 
She lamented that because inflation remains extremely elevated in real terms, borrowing costs are distortionary, margins remain compressed, while long-term investment decisions continue to face high macroeconomic uncertainty.
 “The current environment, therefore, supports tactical planning rather than strategic risk-taking, pending stronger confirmation of sustained disinflation”, she said.
  
Urging the government not to rely on the current hazy disinflation numbers, she called for the prioritisation of supply-side measures, agriculture, logistics, energy and FX market transparency.