Nigeria’s oil production is on course for a substantial uplift to about 1.8 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, with optimism of resumption of operations in the long-dormant Ogoni fields and a sustained focus on pipeline security as the key drivers to unlock new volumes.
The latest Nigeria Energy Sector Outlook for Q1 2026 frames the coming three months as a critical preparation window, setting the stage for what could be the most significant onshore production growth in a decade.
After exiting 2025 with output in the mid-1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) range, the report projects that credible execution on current priorities could push the nation’s crude and condensate production toward 1.8 mbpd by Q2 2026. This anticipated increase hinges on converting fragile peace and paper agreements in the Niger Delta into tangible field activity and uninterrupted export.
The single largest potential contributor to the Q2 surge is identified as the Ogoni implementation programme. The Outlook outlines a clear sequence of Q1 2026 milestones that must be met to de-risk the timeline for material volume uplift later in the year. These includes: formalising the community equity vehicle; funding the remediation escrow; appointing a lead operator/consortium; and initiating early civil works.
“Early civil works and safe site access in Q1 can de-risk timelines,” the report states, noting that “material volume uplift remains more likely from late Q2/Q3.” This positions the coming quarter as the essential foundation for the subsequent production climb.
The projected increase is inextricably linked to continued improvements in pipeline security. While theft and sabotage risks persist at an exposure of between 50,000 and 80,000 barrels per day, the report emphasises that targeted, performance-linked strategies are showingeffect.
The coordinated federal-state security taskforces and the auditing of community
surveillance payments are cited as critical to protecting the gains.
“Success in Q2 depends on actions taken now,” the analysis warns. “Deploying smart pigging and leak detection on high-loss corridors and prosecuting organised hot-tapnetworks in Q1 are non-negotiable to ensure additional Ogoni and onshore volumes actually reach export terminals.”
However, it stated that the anticipated Q2 rise is not reliant on Ogoni alone. It is expected to be bolstered by: Steady output from assets like Bonga, with the Bonga North tie-in providing “the most dependable barrels.”
Other drivers are the incremental volume gains from Seplat’soptimisation of recently acquired assets and the resolution of legacy issues related to Shell’s onshore exit; and reduced losses on key trunklines translating directly into higher recorded production.
The report highlighted that a return to 1.8 mbpd production would have cascading positive effects on government finances, such that increased oil receipts would bolster fiscal buffers, providing more flexibility for infrastructure and social spending.
Also, a higher crude availability secures feedstock for the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries, reinforcing national fuel supply resilience. Combined with reduced fuel imports, higher export volumes would significantly ease foreign exchange pressure, supporting the Naira and cementing the disinflation trend.
