The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has warned that Nigeria risks losing more than $50 billion in projected foreign direct investment (FDI) if it reintroduces fuel subsidies.

A former Vice President and presidential candidate in the 2027 election, Atiku Abubakar, said he would return fuel subsidies if he wins the election.

In a statement signed by the IMPI convener, Omoniyi Akinsiju, the group said Abubakar’s proposal, tagged the Atiku Economic Recovery Plan, would shift subsidy from fuel importation to local refining, granting refiners discounted crude in exchange for passing on the savings to consumers.

IMPI described the plan as complex and warned it would drag NNPC Limited and private refiners into politically dictated pricing arrangements that conflict with the Petroleum Industry Act 9(PIA).

It argued the plan would signal regulatory uncertainty to global investors, threatening the public-private partnerships needed to fund infrastructure.

IMPI noted that fuel subsidies cost Nigeria over N20 trillion between 2006 and 2022, and that its removal freed up N15 trillion for the Federal Government between June 2023 and December 2025, of which N10.5 trillion went to states and local governments.

The group said discounted crude for refiners would still amount to a hidden deduction from the Federation Account, leaving sub-national governments short of funds for roads, healthcare and water projects. It predicted that price caps would push fuel supply toward major cities, leaving remote areas to rely on black-market fuel, with transport costs potentially rising 40 per cent above current market rates.

IMPI also argued that subsidies disproportionately benefit wealthier vehicle owners over poorer Nigerians who depend on public transport, calling the policy a fiscal illusion that shifts costs rather than removing them.

The group maintained that reviving subsidy payments would repeat past fiscal mistakes and undermine the funding needed for durable infrastructure, even as it acknowledged the political appeal of cheaper pump prices amid rising living costs.

“Nigeria’s historical infrastructure deficit cannot be solved by returning to the fiscal policies that created it,” Akinsiju said, warning that the model would prioritise short-term relief at the pump over investment in roads, hospitals, schools and power.