Players in the Nigeria’s automobile sector said the past year was full of unfulfilled promises. But there is hope that 2026 will usher in a new phase of growth, BENJAMIN ALADE reports.
The Nigerian automobile industry, like in past years, remained stagnant last year as most of the government’s planned programmes did not see the light of day.
Industry experts and analysts were hopeful that the much-talked-about Nigeria Automotive Industry Development Programme (NAIDP) Act would be passed by the National Assembly and possibly signed into law by the President, Bola Tinubu.
The Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, and the Director-General of the National Automotive Design and Development Council (NADDC), Oluwemimo Osanipin, have given assurances that the bill would be passed into law within the past year.
Also, the President Bola Tinubu-led administration promised to end the dominance of used import vehicles into the country, increase local production, investment and assembly, reduce ageing vehicles and acquire more Nigeria-made vehicles.
The Senate in May 2025 went as far as passing the bill mandating ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) to use made-in-Nigeria vehicles.
But most of the programmes and pronouncements were not enforced as the government failed in the implementation of its own policies and plans.
Also, the government promised to fast-track the growth and acceptance of electric vehicles (EVs) and compressed natural gas (CNG), but the lack of sufficient charging ports and filling stations as well as the exorbitant rates of conversion, reduced the impact of the programme, despite the high prices of premium motoring spirit (PMS).
Experts in the sector said the government’s attitude towards policy formulation and implementation must change for the policies to get traction this year.
They also expect state governments to play a more active role, using transport as a lever for economic growth and social inclusion.
Commenting on the activities in the sector in 2025 and expectations in 2026, an associate professor of marketing at Keele University in the United Kingdom, Dr Emmanuel Mogaji, said the enthusiasm seen in 2025 was a signal policymakers should not ignore.
Mogaji explained that there had been a growing interest in EVs over the past few years, but noted that the momentum needed to be matched with deliberate investments in charging networks, maintenance capacity and policy alignment.
He noted that in practical terms, 2025 exposed the limits of market-driven adoption without government coordination.
He said EV uptake remained modest and constrained by infrastructure gaps and uncertainty around standards, tariffs, and incentives.
Besides, Mogaji noted that 2025 renewed attention on alternative electric mobility, noting that electric tricycles, buses and shared transport models gained visibility, particularly in conversations around urban congestion and last-mile connectivity.
“These options offer broader social and environmental benefits, especially for densely populated cities and underserved rural communities,” he added.
Breaking the Lagos dominance
Another defining feature of 2025 was the continued dominance of Lagos in mobility innovation, Mogaji said.
According to him, most pilot schemes, transport reforms and private investments remained concentrated in the commercial capital.
He pointed out that while this helped Lagos to advance its transport narrative, it also highlighted the obvious imbalance in the sector.
“Transport service provision must extend beyond Lagos,” he insisted.
Exploring how other states are improving mobility for their citizens could stimulate innovation nationwide and support more balanced development.
Mogaji argued that 2026 must mark a shift from rhetoric to action, with inclusive design embedded across road, rail and water transport systems.
Besides, a mobility expert and Managing Partner at Transtech Industrial Consulting, Luqman Mamudu, described the absence of the NAIDP Act as the industry’s most significant setback in 2025.
“The NAIDP Act remains the most critical prerequisite for attracting foreign direct investment.”
Mamudu explained that despite the challenges in the sector, Nigerian assemblers had nonetheless made measurable gains.
Mamudu, who was a former Director of Policy and Strategic Planning at the NADDC, said by 2025, the industry had successfully transitioned to semi-knocked down (SKD) operations, with an installed capacity exceeding 500,000 vehicles yearly, which was enough to support a move to complete knocked down (CKD) manufacturing.
However, he emphasised several structural challenges that persisted throughout the year.
He mentioned unchecked imports of used vehicles, which continued to dominate the market, limited access to new vehicles, the absence of incentives for local manufacturers and the lack of long-term investment security as some of the challenges.
CNG and early EV adoption
Mamudu posited that one of the past year’s most impactful developments was the Presidential Initiative on CNG-powered vehicles.
He said as fuel costs soared, CNG gained traction as a cheaper and cleaner alternative, particularly among commercial transport operators.
Mamudu noted that while adoption increased in 2025, progress was constrained by inadequate CNG distribution and refuelling infrastructure.
Still, the momentum generated during the year has raised expectations that, with sustained government commitment, these gaps could be addressed in 2026, paving the way for broader adoption.
Similarly, EV adoption, though modest, was encouraging. The absence of charging infrastructure did not deter early adopters, reinforcing the view that a supportive policy environment could unlock rapid growth, Mamudu said.
Policy, infrastructure, and inclusion
Stakeholders are united in their expectations for the year. Foremost is the passage of the NAIDP Act, which Mamudu believed could unlock foreign direct investment, strengthen local manufacturing, and provide a coherent framework for managing used vehicle imports, as well as incentivise new vehicle purchases.
Experts argued that 2026 should be the year Nigeria moves from experimentation to structure through incentives, charging infrastructure development, and standards that give investors and consumers confidence.
Recycling and end-of-life vehicle management are also expected to gain prominence in 2026.
Mamudu advocated stronger enforcement of existing policies, with recycling costs embedded into vehicle pricing under an extended producer responsibility framework.
Proper de-licensing of end-of-life vehicles, he said, was vital for national security, environmental sustainability, and the growth of vehicle recycling as a waste-to-wealth initiative.
In many ways, 2025 laid the groundwork—testing ideas, revealing weaknesses and proving that Nigerians are ready for change. Whether 2026 becomes a breakthrough year will depend on how decisively the government aligns policy with market realities.
From EVs and CNG vehicles to inclusive transport and local manufacturing, the path forward is clear. What remains is the political and institutional resolve to turn momentum into measurable transformation on Nigeria’s roads.
