• OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand forecast by 71%, projects 1.7m bpd growth in 2027
• FG seeks investment protection, policy stability

Fresh concerns over a possible increase in petrol prices have emerged following a two per cent rise in global crude oil prices to $106.80 per barrel, as renewed attacks in the Middle East heighten fears of supply disruptions, threatening to undermine the relief offered by the Federal Government’s 30-day petrol discount.

This was as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 71.4 per cent to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), from 1.4 million bpd projected at the beginning of the year, citing slower-than-anticipated demand growth and changing market conditions.

Meanwhile, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, called on governments to establish predictable policies and protect investment agreements to sustain capital flows into the energy sector amid changing global market conditions.

The development comes amid persistent pressure on domestic fuel prices, with the sustainability of the current pump-price relief uncertain as international oil prices climb and security risks threaten crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although the Federal Government has extended the N66-per-litre discount on petrol sold by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) until October 31, 2026, the initiative is limited to customers who pay digitally through its mobile application.

Under the arrangement, NNPCL Retail’s pump price of N1,405 per litre is reduced to N1,339 per litre for eligible customers using the application.

However, the renewed rally in global crude prices has raised concerns about the potential impact on domestic petrol prices, should the increase persist, particularly in a market where the cost of imported petroleum products and locally refined fuel remains sensitive to prevailing market conditions.

Yesterday, Brent crude futures rose by $2.09 (two per cent) to $106.80 per barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.93 (2.10 per cent) to $93.78 per barrel, according to Oilprice.com data.

OPEC Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, disclosed the revised outlook yesterday during a ministerial session entitled Perspectives on Global Oil and Gas Markets at the 25th World Energy Congress in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Despite the sharp downward revision, Al Ghais projected that global oil demand growth would rebound to 1.7 million bpd in 2027, as some consumption deferred from this year is expected to materialise next year.

He attributed recent market developments partly to declining Chinese oil imports following earlier inventory accumulation, releases from strategic petroleum reserves in several countries, particularly members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and slowing demand.

The revised outlook comes as oil-producing countries continue to assess market conditions and the implications for production planning, investment and energy security.

For Nigeria, the forecast provides fresh context for assessing crude oil production and the country’s 2026 fiscal assumptions, which depend partly on petroleum earnings.

The Federal Government’s 2026 budget planning adopted a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and a production assumption of about 1.84 million bpd, while setting its production target at 2.06 million bpd.

However, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that Nigeria’s crude oil production stood at approximately 1.5 million bpd in August 2026, excluding condensates. Combined crude oil and condensate production reached about 1.678 million bpd.

The crude oil figure was in line with Nigeria’s OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd, marking the fourth consecutive month the country met its allocation, according to the figures supplied by the commission.

Also speaking at the 17th International Energy Forum Ministerial Meeting in Riyadh, Lokpobiri stressed the importance of investor confidence, regulatory stability and long-term investment in securing reliable energy supplies.

According to a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Media and Communication, Nneamaka Okafor, the minister said: “I often say in Nigeria that capital is blind; it goes where it is welcomed,” urging governments to create transparent and reliable frameworks that encourage investment and protect agreements.

The minister, who co-hosted the meeting alongside Italy’s Minister of the Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, said energy security depended on strategic planning, resilient infrastructure and sustained investment in production capacity.