Far away in the centre of Nigeria, as the eight-year tenure of Governor Yahaya Bello approaches its end, Kogi state witnesses a fierce battle for new leadership. With over ten candidates vying for the top position, the anointed successor of the outgoing governor, Usman Ododo, hopes to take the reins seamlessly. To gain a deeper understanding of Kogi’s unique political dynamics and the sentiments of its residents, Principal Intel conducted extensive street-level research.

Our findings in Kogi state reveal three crucial trends:

• APC Dominance: Nearly 40% of Kogi’s population identifies with or supports the All Progressives Congress (APC). In the world of politics, this is a substantial level of backing, particularly when competing against numerous parties that struggle to gather even 25% support individually. Independent voters make up approximately 26% of the electorate, leaving just 36% for the nine other political parties to contend for.

• Usman Ododo’s Lead: Beyond APC’s popularity in Kogi (39%), the APC’s candidate for the upcoming governorship election, Usman Ododo, holds a statistical lead with 33%. This presents a formidable challenge for any single candidate to overcome, considering the APC’s solid structure and incumbency.

• Tinubu’s Popularity: A substantial 66.9% of Kogi residents believe President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidency is legitimate – meaning every 2 in 3 Kogi resident believes President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to be duely and legitimately elected. This statistic underscores the strength of the ruling APC government in Kogi.

While our data underscores the strength of the APC in Kogi, it’s not an insurmountable lead. In a fair contest, their weaknesses can be exploited, as there are areas that warrant scrutiny. Firstly, the incumbent governor, Yahaya Bello, has a relatively low approval rating of 29%. Further analysis reveals that only 51% of APC supporters approve of his performance, while 32% disapprove, and 11% remain neutral.

This foretells mixed news for the APC flag bearer in this upcoming election, Usman Ododo, that he will have to adopt a messaging that breathes fresh air to a broad spectrum of Kogi citizens and residents especially in the place of security and economic welfare of the people as our data shows.

We also saw that the data subtly shows that a coalition of opposition candidates can formidably challenge the APC’s structure and resources available to Usman Ododo. With Dino Melaye at 16% support and Murtala Ajaka at 26%, the potential exists to rival the APC’s 39% stronghold, considering the 27% of independents and 17% who remain undecided or unwilling to disclose their voting intentions. However, it’s obvious to the blind that every politician is an incurable optimist and the chances of that happening this late into the contest is at an all time low.

In summary, our Kogi data offers several key insights:

• Positively, 65% of Kogi residents see the Tinubu Presidency as legitimate, indicating APC’s strength.

• Positively, 33% of Kogi residents favor Usman Ododo as the next governor, 90% say their minds are made up on their choice and 39% aligning with his party, APC.

• Neutrally, a majority of the 27% of Kogi residents who identify as independents in Kogi state might abstain from the election or split their votes largely among the other parties.

• Negatively, 87% of Kogi residents say they have never received government palliatives.

• Negatively, 46% of Kogi residents oppose the current governor’s performance, while 25% remain neutral or undecided.

In conclusion, in context and in accordance to all data available to Principal Intel, and barring any significant party mergers in the near future, we confidently project Usman Ododo as the next governor of Kogi state, and this is despite the incumbent governor’s low approval rating. We anticipate a competitive election, ultimately resulting in victory for the APC candidate, Usman Ododo. Without a merger, the “independents, undecided and wouldn’t disclose” voters, when evenly distributed among other contestants, are unlikely to erode the APC’s lead in Kogi state.

Principal Intel is a Political Data Research Firm
Reported data can be verified on www.principalintel.com/projections