Low expectations, optimism herald Trump’s second coming

• U.S. election marks ‘victory of crudity over-refinement’, sends troubling message to the world – Akinyemi
• Nigeria, Africa should expect nothing, ambassadors warn
• Expert predicts lower global oil prices, stronger dollar that could add to Nigeria’s woes
• USD dominates FX space, posts biggest one-day gain since Feb 2023

By his antecedents, and consistently echoed rhetoric during his campaigns, Donald Trump’s election as the 47th U.S. president promises no direct dividends for Nigeria and other African countries.

The controversial Trump, who staged one of the most momentous comebacks in modern political history to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris yesterday, is well known for his hard stance on immigrants, aid and support for developing countries, and the Global South in general.

Foreign affairs experts reckoned that the United States has made an unpopular choice in President Trump, making the future of a less belligerent international system, coupled with global peace and stability, more difficult.

After losing to President Joe Biden in 2020 and facing a series of political career-threatening legal battles, Trump pulled a major comeback at the end of vote counting in the United States early yesterday.

It was a resounding victory for him. He won both by popular vote and the Electoral College. Out of 516 Electoral College votes, he got 292 against 224 for Harris. A majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect a President in the United States.

On popular votes, Trump scored 71,979,150 votes, representing 51.0 per cent, while Harris earned 67,154,015, representing 48 per cent of the votes cast as of the last count.

Also, the Republicans got the majority in the Senate, House and as governors. The Senate has 52 Republicans against 44 Democrats; the House has 201 Republicans against 186 Democrats, while out of 50 states, Republicans govern 27 and Democrats 23.

Trump also won the seven swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona.
Analysts averred that Trump triumphed due to the exit polls, which showed that Hispanic men backed Trump over Harris by a 10-point margin of 54 per cent to 44 per cent.

He has vowed to heal the nation, fix its borders and deliver a strong and prosperous economy after millions of his voters turned to him amid frustration over high prices for food and housing and embraced his plans for a crackdown on undocumented migrants.

“I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honour of being elected your 47th president. This will truly be the golden age of America,” Trump said.

However, experts foresee the near future differently. Nigeria’s former Foreign Affairs Minister, Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, in a sharp critique of the election, expressed disappointment, describing the outcome as “a victory for crudity over refinement” that undermines America’s reputation as a global beacon of democracy and integrity.

Akinyemi In an interview with ARISE NEWS, questioned the values that led to the election result and warned of its implications for nations striving to uphold democratic principles.

Reflecting on his long history with the United States, Akinyemi said: “I first went to the U.S. in 1962, and that America is not the America that voted for Donald Trump yesterday.

“You must stand for rationality. How can you vote for somebody who was convicted of 34 crimes, someone who almost overturned an election? By doing this, what message are you sending to the rest of the world?”

Akinyemi also noted the broader impact of the U.S. election on nations in the Global South.

“For us in Nigeria, in the Global South, who are supposed to be fighting for democracy, decency, honesty—what message have you sent this morning?” he asked. “So why should I say good morning?

Akinyemi recalled a vision of America that once inspired the world. “We want the America that I grew up in. It was an America that pursued its national interest without telling the rest of the world where to go.”

Speculating on Trump’s next term, Akinyemi expressed concern about potential global instability. “How Donald Trump is going to use the next four years to create chaos all around still beats me, but I don’t know what Kamala Harris did wrong, honestly.”

Akinyemi suggested that Nigeria and Africa would continue to hold little interest for Trump, much like during his previous tenure.

“We were not of value to him the first time around. I don’t want to use the term he used for us, but I agree with Ambassador Joe Keshi that we are not going to be of any interest to him. He would have other areas of the world that are of more immediate interest.”

He also noted Trump’s bold campaign promises. “He has told you he can stop the war in Ukraine and in the Middle East. Let us see how the campaign rhetoric translates into actual diplomatic actions once he is in the White House.

“But he never mentioned Africa throughout that campaign. He only mentioned Congo, and that was because of the imports coming from there.”

Akinyemi urged Nigeria to prioritise self-reliance, stressing the importance of reducing dependence on foreign aid.

“Let this be a lesson to us that we should turn inward. A country like Nigeria, with its natural resources, should not have to depend on loans, aid, or assistance from the United States. We need to buckle up and develop ourselves. We have lost so many years. Think of where we were in 1966, 1975, compared to now.”

Apparently, in agreement with Akinyemi, Ambassador Joe Keshi said that Trump’s administration would jumpstart the creativity of Africans, since “he’s not going to deliver anything to us, we should start thinking about ourselves”.
He noted that there are different types of relationships in the world. The way people of equal status deal with one another is different from the way they deal with others below them or others they do not consider equal.

“So, when you find a man like Trump, who does not even pay any respect to his peers and allies with special relationships, but mingle with the people he believes are his idols, those who exhibit and exhume power, who have the almost infinite power of life and death over their citizens, he shows you that those are the kind of people he respects, and others he’s going to treat as if they don’t exist,” he said.

According to him, if Trump doesn’t have respect for Europeans, their long-time allies which he showed in his first tenure, “you can imagine his mindset for people like Africans and Nigeria that he probably knows very little or nothing about, other than the State Department telling him that there are friends in Africa that needs to be engaged”.

He, however, said that if Nigeria had built its country and had genuine leadership, then it would be easier to consider the nation, adding that if Americans were asked to choose between Nigeria and India, or Nigeria and Rwanda, they would choose the other countries.

Director General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Prof. Eghosa Osaghae, reckoned that what happens in America affects the rest of the world.
Osaghae, however, added that there is a need for Nigeria to not just be a spectator, but actively monitor and observe the elections as the idea of democracy faces multiple threats.

“Today we hear things that were unheard of in America’s politics before. Stories of violence, burning of ballot boxes, election fraud among others. So, democracy is on trial and needs to be salvaged in America and every part of the world,” he said.

According to the Don, for a long time, America always had focus on Africa but in recent times it appears the continent is no longer as important in American politics as before.

He stated that there is a need for an America that is responsive to Nigeria, Africa and the Global South.

On his part, Professor of law and international jurisprudence, Akin Oyebode, said Trump’s victory was not totally unexpected.

“That Trump is returning to the White House is not surprising. Show me your friends, as they say, and I’ll tell you who you are. That a garrulous convicted felon is the choice of the Americans tells us a lot about their character.

“The lesson for us in Africa is to realise that we are very much on our own and be more circumspect in choosing our friends. As for prospects of a new world order, the more things appear to change, the more they remain the same as once observed by a notable French thinker,” the don said.

On the effect of the Trump administration on Nigeria and Africa at large, Professor of Political Science at Lagos State University (LASU), Kayode Soremekun, said to determine the implication of a Trump administration in Nigeria, one needs to look at U.S.-Nigeria relations in relative terms, which is dependent on their priorities as far as foreign policy is concerned.

He emphasised that Washington’s priorities, in order of importance, revolved around Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, Asia, and then finally, Nigeria, showing that Nigeria does not count significantly in their priorities.

“Within that context, you can see that Nigeria does not count much in U.S. foreign policy priorities. More often than not, a lot of us miss one point, which is that Nigeria is not important to them on the scale of priorities.

“So, to that extent, United States-Nigeria relations, in my own opinion, will simply remain the same. It will not acquire any traction because of Washington’s foreign policy priorities. This is more so in the context of a Trump presidency,” he said.

He explained that this is partly because at the domestic level, Africa is yet to organise itself properly and those who should be its partners, adding that African-Americans are yet to acquire the right kind of influence in the Washington policy community.

An economist, Lukman Otunuga, said Trump’s presidency could add to Nigeria’s economic woes going by the combination of lower global oil prices and a stronger dollar, which could add to its woes as it navigates a rough period.
Otunuga, who doubles as the Senior Market Analyst at FXTM, said Trump’s victory may pressure oil prices as he is seen pushing for a further increase in domestic oil and gas production, leading to increased supply in the long term.

He said in addition, his policies could see a boost in U.S. growth – triggering inflationary pressures.

Should this prompt the Federal Government to keep interest rates higher for longer, a stronger dollar may drag oil prices lower as a result.
He noted that assets tied to the “Trump trade” rallied during the Asian session after Trump took an early lead with his victory keeping bulls in the game. “U.S. futures are flashing green, Treasury yields have jumped while Bitcoin hit an all-time high,” he said.

He listed assets that could be burned with Trump’s return to include Gold, which could drop as much as 1.5 per cent. He said Chinese stock indices slipped yesterday morning amid renewed fears over U.S.-China trade tensions.

He also noted that European stock indices: flashed red due to concerns over the impacts of Trump’s proposed tariffs on Europe.
According to him, currencies of major U.S trading partners: the Euro (EUR), Chinese Yuan (CNH), and especially the Mexican Peso (MXN) have all weakened against the USD.

He said Trump’s return to the White House will most likely set the market tone for the next few years with the USD, Bitcoin and other assets tied to the “Trump trade” the biggest winners.

Otunuga said investors with some skin in the game have already experienced how markets reacted under Trump between 2016 and 2020.
The CEO and founder of Movemeback, Charles Sekwalor, said Trump’s return to the White House is likely to intensify the shift towards a new world order – one in which Africa has the opportunity, if not the imperative, to redefine its role on the global stage.

Trump’s historical ‘America First’ approach is likely to reduce the U.S involvement in the continent.

“On one hand, this may decrease support in key areas like security, trade and climate, but on the other, it may provide African nations with the much-needed push to deepen intra-continental alliances and boost economic independence.
“Furthermore, with the potential absence of American influence, Africa must also thread carefully to avoid over-indexing its alignment to other influential powers, who will most likely seek to exploit the gap and reduced “competition” for personal gain.

“While the future of the world order is marked by uncertainty, it is clear that now more than ever, Africa must chart its course,” he declared.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the UK’s Keir Starmer have been among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on winning the election.
In his statement, Netanyahu said Trump’s return to office “offered a new beginning for America, a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

Senior Hamas official, Sami Abu Zuhri, has said that Trump would be tested on his statements that he can stop the war within hours as American president.

“We urge Trump to learn from Biden’s mistakes,” he told Reuters news agency.
UK Prime Minister, Sir Starmer, said: “I look forward to working with Trump in the years ahead. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”

Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, a close Trump ally, said his election was “a much-needed victory for the world. The biggest comeback in US political history!” he wrote in a post on X.

French President Emmanuel Macron also congratulated Trump, saying he was ready to work together with him just as before, “with respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”

German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, congratulated Trump, adding that “Germany and the U.S. have for a long time successfully worked together to promote prosperity and freedom on both sides of the Atlantic.”

NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, said Trump’s leadership “will again be key to keeping our alliance strong. I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through the strength of NATO.”