Price of domestic paddy rice to increase by 50% in 2025 – AFEX

The price of domestic paddy rice has been projected to rise by approximately 50 percent year-on-year this year, despite the imposition of the 150-day import waiver introduced by the Federal Government to reduce the price of food in the country.

The projection is part of the AFEX 2025 Annual Commodities Review and Outlook report and index methodology made available at the weekend.
The report revealed that paddy rice witnessed price growth of six percent owing to India’s export restrictions, seasonal supply tightness, and the adverse impacts of El Niño on global rice production.

However, it revealed that the price eased towards the end of the year as India lifted its ban on rice exportation.

Africa’s leading commodities player also predicts price stabilization for staple grain commodities like maize, soybean, and sorghum, amidst record food inflation in Nigeria.

The report, which tracks the price and production performance of global and regional markets, alongside projections for the year ahead, provides valuable insights into the agricultural value chain, highlighting challenges and opportunities inherent in the market while providing an accurate forecast that potentially steers price and volumes for the coming season.

“In Nigeria, the economy grappled with record-high inflation, which reached 34.8 percent in December 2024, and a volatile exchange rate, coupled with challenges in the agricultural sector such as climate change, rising input costs, and low productivity.

“In 2024, we witnessed commodity prices rise by four percent compared to 2023, which saw a seven percent decline in prices. While the price decline in 2023 was a direct consequence of a nine percent drop in food prices and a five percent decline in raw materials, prices in 2024 actually witnessed an eight percent decline in food prices, driven by an 11 percent drop in oil and meal prices and a significant 16 percent decrease in grain prices. However, a sharp 64 percent increase in beverage prices and a five percent rise in raw material costs eventually tilted prices higher,” the report read.

The report disclosed that global production of maize reached a record-breaking 1.13 billion metric tons in 2024, reflecting a six percent year-on-year increase. It noted that the output put downward pressure on maize prices, which fell by 25 percent year-on-year.

“In contrast, maize prices in Nigeria rose by 92 percent year-on-year and closed the year at approximately N660,000 per metric ton, with its highest peak in July, where prices hit N908,000 per metric ton.”

The report projects that local prices are expected to moderate on the back of the government’s implementation of a 150-day import duty on maize, which will increase supply and eventually ease pressure on prices.

The President/CEO of AFEX Nigeria, Akinyinka Akintunde, who spoke during the launch of the report, said: “As we confront record food inflation and macroeconomic pressures, this report provides critical insights to stabilize Nigeria’s agricultural value chain. By identifying pathways to mitigate climate risks, optimize input costs, and enhance productivity, it lays a foundation for resolving food insecurity and fostering sustainable growth in the sector.”

He stressed that as the country continues to battle rising food prices, it is important for stakeholders within the agriculture sector to prioritize concerted efforts aimed at driving innovation within the value chain.

The Executive Chairman of MITSUN Group, Ikenna Egbukole, who frowned at the compounding challenges of climate volatility, fragmented supply chains, and underinvestment, demanded urgent, coordinated action. He noted that tackling food insecurity requires a unified approach, leveraging policy reforms, private-sector innovation, and capital market interventions to build resilience across the entire agricultural ecosystem.