• Atiku asks FG to account for subsidy savings as ASUU threatens strike
• Enugu, Abia post fastest revenue growth since subsidy removal, says BudgIT

Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, has warned that restoring petrol subsidy could cost Nigeria nearly N20 trillion yearly and worsen the country’s fiscal, debt and foreign exchange pressures.

He, however, acknowledged the severe economic strain caused by the latest surge in petrol prices, which pushed up transportation, logistics and production costs, weakened household purchasing power and further eroded the competitiveness of businesses, particularly Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).

However, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar challenged President Bola Tinubu’s administration to account for the funds saved from the removal of fuel subsidy, amid renewed threats of industrial action by the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU).

Meanwhile, Enugu recorded the fastest growth in state revenue across Nigeria between 2022 and 2025, according to a new report by BudgIT, a civic-tech organisation that tracks public finance and budget transparency.

Abia followed with 66.05 per cent, while Niger, Taraba and Bauchi posted growth rates of 60.47 per cent, 54.33 per cent and 53.87 per cent, respectively, BudgIT added.

In a recent policy brief, ‘Petrol Subsidy: Preserving Reform Gains While Protecting Citizens’, Yusuf argued that government should resist the pressure to return to the old subsidy regime and instead deploy true, targeted interventions to cushion Nigerians.

He said the subsidy debate should go beyond pump prices, given its implications for fiscal sustainability, foreign exchange stability, investment, domestic refining, industrialisation, employment and energy security.

According to him, Nigeria’s previous subsidy model was unsustainable, with the country spending an estimated $10 to $15 billion yearly on petroleum product imports before the reform.

“The old regime was, therefore, not merely a subsidy problem; it was a major fiscal, FX and resource-allocation problem,” he stated.

He further noted that the removal of subsidy improved the commercial viability of domestic refining, arguing that administratively suppressed prices and uncertainty over the pricing framework discouraged long-term investment in refining for decades.

CPPE pointed out that a competitive refining industry would create opportunities not only in petrol but also in diesel, aviation fuel, petrochemicals, fertiliser, plastics, chemicals, logistics, storage and maritime services.

Nigeria, Yusuf advised, should ultimately seek to transform from an importer of petroleum products into a competitive regional refining and petrochemical hub.

However, he reiterated that the additional revenue accruing to the three tiers of government following subsidy removal must translate into visible benefits for citizens.

According to him, higher government revenues could not justify the reform, insisting that Nigerians must see improvements in public transportation, electricity, healthcare, education, food security, infrastructure and social protection.

On the growing calls for a return to subsidy, he said the policy would recreate the very problems the reform was designed to eliminate, including fiscal leakage, FX pressure, arbitrage, smuggling, pricing distortions and investment uncertainty.

Using a PMS consumption benchmark of 50 million litres per day and an indicative subsidy requirement of N1,050 per litre, he estimated that reinstating subsidy could expose government to a bill of about N52.5 billion daily, N1.575 trillion monthly and approximately N20 trillion yearly.

He warned that consumption would increase under a subsidy regime because renewed price differentials encourage cross-border diversion.

He said the debate should consequently move beyond the simple question of whether petrol subsidy should return, arguing that the bigger challenge was how Nigeria could convert reform gains into lower structural costs, stronger domestic production, improved competitiveness, greater energy security and measurable improvements in citizens’ welfare.

ATIKU, in a statement, issued by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, yesterday, noted that the Tinubu administration had justified subsidy removal on the promise that the resources saved would be redirected to education, healthcare, infrastructure and other essential services.

He said Nigerians had already borne the consequences of the policy through higher fuel prices, transport fares, food costs, energy bills and school fees, yet public universities remained underfunded, while lecturers continued to complain about unpaid entitlements and unresolved agreements.

“If the ‘subsidy is gone’ and Nigerians have paid for that decision through unprecedented hardship, then President Tinubu owes the country a simple answer: where is the money?” Atiku asked.

The former VP accused the administration of failing to meet its obligations to university lecturers and prevent another disruption of the academic calendar.

IN the BudgIT report, ‘Nigeria’s Reforms: What Has Changed Across Nigeria’s States?’, reviewed actual revenue performance in 34 states over the period, using budget implementation data, Akwa Ibom and Rivers were excluded for lack of complete records.

Enugu’s actual revenue rose from N102.68 billion in 2022 to N665.85 billion in 2025, a Compound Yearly Growth Rate (CAGR) of 86.48 per cent, the highest in the country. Abia followed with 66.05 per cent, while Niger, Taraba and Bauchi posted growth rates of 60.47 per cent, 54.33 per cent and 53.87 per cent, respectively.

Overall, aggregate state revenue grew at a CAGR of 47.57 per cent during the period. Edo, Imo, Katsina, Anambra and Osun all recorded growth above 52 per cent, while Kogi, Plateau, Oyo, Cross River, Ekiti and Gombe grew by roughly half.

BudgIT linked much of the rise to higher monthly allocations from the Federation Account, boosted by the removal of petrol subsidy and other fiscal reforms. It said improved Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) also helped in some states.

Lagos still holds the largest revenue base. Its earnings climbed from N889.45 billion to N2.63 trillion over the period, but its 43.49 per cent growth rate ranked 22nd, showing that a bigger revenue base does not always mean faster growth. Delta’s revenue rose from N540.84 billion to N1.45 trillion, a 38.90 per cent CAGR, also below the national average.

Nasarawa recorded a CAGR of 27.94 per cent, followed by Kebbi, Zamfara, Ogun and Kaduna, all below 34 per cent.

BudgIT cautioned that rising revenue does not automatically translate into development. The report examined how states spent on personnel, overheads, capital projects, education, health and infrastructure, noting that differences reflected each state’s economic structure and revenue administration capacity.

Although federal allocations drove most of the growth, BudgIT said states still need to strengthen IGR to reduce dependence on Abuja and secure long-term fiscal stability.

The organisation called for timely publication of budget reports, open procurement and stronger oversight, warning that increased revenue must come with transparency if citizens are to benefit.