Iran, Israel and the new face of the Middle East

Hamas launched an unprecedented surprise assault on Israel on October 7, 2023. It killed 1,200 people, destroyed anything on its path, took away over 250 to Gaza as hostages and war broke out. Israel responded, got rid of Hamas elements on its soil and took control of its territory only after 3 days. The day after Hamas launched that attack, Hezbollah fired missiles at Israeli villages near Lebanon’s border with Israel and the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) found itself fighting on two fronts. Few days ago, the Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu after his phone call with the US president elect, Donald Trump, reminded international observers what he had said on the second day of its war with Hamas.  He made a promise that has turned out to be a prophecy. “A year ago, I said something simple. We will change the face of the Middle East and indeed we are doing so. Syria is not the same Syria. Lebanon is not the same Lebanon. Gaza is not the same Gaza, and the head of the axis Iran is not the same Iran. It has also felt the might of our arm”. As a matter of fact, the face of the Middle East has changed not by any other but by the IDF.

That singular decision by Hezbollah to launch attacks against Israel and join the war was a strategic mistake of monumental proportion and it ultimately had consequencesmainly in Lebanon, Syria and Iran. It cost them everything. It was a big miscalculation. Hezbollah misjudged Israel because of their internal problems that had caused serious division amongst Israelis and its government. The attack Yahya Sinwar had ordered, brought the Israeli public together and they forgot about all the issues they had at home. It is war time. Hamas, Hezbollah and by extension Iran misread the resolve of Israel’s war time leaders. For eleven months of the war with Hamas, Israel kept the cross-border confrontation with the Lebanese group practically low just to avoid an all-out war. In Hezbollah’s calculation, especially because of how the 2006 war went, they felt Israel was afraid of them. The attacks escalated rapidly in September 2024 when Israel reduced the presence of the IDF in Gaza and moved unto what it called the new phase of the war. Israel’s Defence Minister at the time Yoav Gallant had said to the Israeli Air Force (IAF), “The centre of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources and energy toward the north”. I believe that we are at the onset of a new phase in this war, and we need to adapt. We will need consistency over time, this war requires great courage, determination and perseverance” he added. Then things escalated. All gloves were off.

From then on, the IAF began striking key Hezbollah targets taking out the entire Hezbollah leadership and got its fearsome leader Hassan Nasrallah killed. The shock that Nasrallah had been taken out saw many Hezbollah fighters abandon the fight and moved their families up north and in some cases to Syria. Just before Nasrallah was killed in that devastating strike in his bunker, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the Iran Supreme Leader, had sent an emissary to convince him to leave Lebanon and go to Iran because he had a feeling Israel was going to kill him. The strike killed both men in Hezbollah underground facility in its Dahieh Beirut stronghold. Isreal’s relentless attacks against Hezbollah was not justin Lebanon, it didn’t spare the Shiite group anywhere they could be found in Syria. For years whilst the Syrian devastating civil war raged, Israel has had hundreds of air strikes against Iran and Hezbollah’s military shipments across Syria without acknowledging them. Iran had joined the war not just to help President Bashar al-Assad stay in power but also had other motives. Iran made efforts to entrench itself in Syria and to also transfer heavy weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah and Iran had bore the brunt of the IAF for years and it all culminated when it became clear that Iran had lost its huge military investment in Lebanon, its strongest proxy Hezbollah decimated, demoralized and its stronghold in southern Lebanon and Beirut in ruins. They never envisaged they could find themselves in this position when they joined the war.

While all these went on, the Syrian opposition fighters,Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)led by a radical jihadistAbu Mohammed al-Jolaniwatched these attacks from their Idlib stronghold in the north of Syria with keen interest. They watched how Iran and Hezbollah had been weakened. They perceived how Russia’s war in Ukraine had dragged on and got Putin distracted. They observed how disgruntled the Syrian Army had become. They could read and interpret correctly the weakness before them. They recognized what has presented itself as a golden opportunity to attack. They licked their lips patiently waiting for that moment to strike and it came.

Observers around the world couldn’t see that Assad’s government was about to be toppled but the rebels and their backers in Turkey saw it and were so sure about it and on November 27th, they unleashed ashock assault. The surprise offense came like lightening. They entered Aleppo for the first time after 8 years, attacked the Syrian army positions and took over the city with practically no resistance. Russian fighter jets responded 2 days after, but it wasn’t going to stop these guys. They had their eyes on Damascus. They went unto take Hama, and then Homs. Hezbollah could not be motivated to respond. They had been badly bruised and decimated. They just wanted to go back home where a ceasefire with Israel had been secured. Assad’s army were not willing to lay down their lives to keep him in power. Iran could not mobilize its Shiite militias, and Russia focusedon its war with Ukraine could not be of help. At that point it was clear to Assad that he was defenceless.He knew he had limited time to leave otherwise what happened to Gaddafi was about to befall him. The Russians saw it too and convinced him to leave. Report has it that Russian agents smuggled him out of Syria to Moscow. The so called “Axis of Resistance” watched helplessly as Assad’s government fell.

Assad fled and the rebels now oversee Syria. It was the end of an era and the beginning of another. As things stand, Tehran has lost Syria a very close and important ally. Iran’s loss in this large chessboard in Syria is Turkey’s gain. With the HTS is power, Iran will struggle to rearm Hezbollah. For Israel, it believes the only way to survive in this hostile Middle East is to be strong and courageous. They have been both. Today, the Middle East has a new face, and the balance of power has shifted. Iran will retreat for a while, recalibrate, restrategize and relaunch itself. Only time will tell how theywill make a comeback as the world continue to watch events unfold in this turbulent Middle East.

Uwem Samson Udom is a business service expert who is passionate about national and global affairs. He writes from Lagos and can be reached at [email protected]