When a nation mistakes motion for progress, it wakes up two years later at the same junction, only more exhausted. And a man carried in by the thunder must prove he can dance in the rain. These are not just proverbs. They are lenses through which Nigeria must assess the halfway mark of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidency. For all the noise, ceremony, and thunder claps that heralded his arrival, the dance, thus far, has been uneven.

The two years of President Tinubu’s administration have offered the nation a whirlwind of policies, promises, and political posturing. From his very first day in office, when he declared that “fuel subsidy is gone,” Nigerians were thrown into the depths of a new economic reality. For years, the fuel subsidy had been both an economic burden and a political shield. Its removal was long overdue, and President Tinubu’s boldness in pulling the plug earned cautious praise from international observers. But the impact on citizens was immediate: transport costs tripled overnight, inflation soared, and salaries remained stagnant. 

Yet in fairness, one cannot ignore that the subsidy removal has helped boost the monthly Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) revenue that state governors receive. It increased the fiscal space for state governments, some of whom had previously complained of inadequate funds. The question is: What have these state governors done with the windfall?

There are also glimmers of reform. However, moments of efficiency cannot conceal broader dysfunctions none more glaring than in the oil sector. The government has repeatedly assured Nigerians that the country’s refineries are working again. Even so, how can a refinery that has no Catalytic Reforming Unit, a major component required to produce Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), be said to be operational? 

Over $850 million has been spent on revamping these refineries. Yet, according to the January 2025 Motor Vessel Tanker Report, over 212 million litres of PMS were imported from Lagos ports to Calabar ports. If the refineries were truly functional, what justifies such massive imports? The numbers do not lie. The narrative does. Every administration claims action. But Nigeria is not lacking in motion; it is parched for meaningful movement.

Nowhere is this exhaustion more evident than in the economy. The Naira continues its erratic dance against the dollar, with monetary policy seemingly in a constant state of trial and error.

The Central Bank leadership change sparked brief optimism, but the average Nigerian trader, student, and salaried worker continues to bear the brunt of price instability, forex scarcity, and shrinking purchasing power. Foreign direct investment has not rebounded significantly, and while tax reforms have been promised, they are yet to yield visible dividends.

Governance is measured not by announcements, but by outcomes that improve lives. And while the administration has shown a willingness to take difficult decisions, the execution has often been flawed, marred by poor communication, and lacking in empathy. But beyond short-term policies and administrative tweaks lies a deeper crisis, one that stems from the very structure of the Nigerian state.The country’s economic weight often disguises its foundational weaknesses. Despite having Africa’s fourth-largest GDP, Nigeria ranked 24th in the 2024 African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI), scoring a dismal 25.70. Compare this with Morocco, whose GDP is significantly lower at $157.09 billion, yet ranked seventh with an infrastructure score more than double Nigeria’s at 70.32. This points to a damning contradiction: a large economy built on fragile systems.

Even Nigeria’s population movement is outpacing its preparedness. With 7 in 10 Nigerians projected to live in cities by 2050, the strain on urban infrastructure, housing, and employment will intensify. Be that as it may, we seem to be arriving at that future with outdated tools and no real blueprint.

The story is no different in the oil sector. While global giants like the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia have sustained production between 9 to 12 million barrels per day, Nigeria’s highest output in the mid-2000s was just 2.5 million, and even that was plagued by oil theft, underinvestment, and pipeline vandalism. We have never broken into the global top five, not for lack of resources but for lack of resolve.

These are not just data points. They are symptoms of a structural failure that cannot be fixed by charisma or sloganeering. It demands honest reform and the political will to disrupt the old order. After all, the President must lead this charge with the urgency of a man who once told Nigerians, “Don’t pity me. I asked for the job. I campaigned for it. I danced for it. I begged for it, I got it, what do you expect me to do? To complain? Forget it.”

Those were his words. If they were not mere campaign theatrics, then now, halfway through his term, is the time to fulfill that promise. But identifying structural rot without proposing repair is only half the task. If the President Tinubu administration is serious about course-correcting, it must begin by addressing the institutional frameworks that have long undermined Nigeria’s potential. The gaps in infrastructure, oil production inefficiency, and skewed federal allocations aren’t just technical, they’re political. And they require not just fiscal solutions, but political courage.

For instance, it’s not enough to boost FAAC allocations after subsidy removal. The federal government must implement a transparent monitoring mechanism to track how states use these funds. We cannot fix a leaking national roof while ignoring the rot in the rooms below.

Nigeria must cease sinking fortunes into comatose refineries that bleed our commonwealth with no return. The future lies not in reviving the obsolete but in harnessing the power beneath our feet: natural gas. With over 200 trillion cubic feet in proven reserves, more than half of it non-associated, we are rich in potential yet poor in output. While Qatar delivers over 110 million metric tonnes annually, Nigeria manages barely 20 million tonnes.

Gas is our untapped inheritance-cleaner, steadier, and essential for our industrial growth. It is time we shift focus, attract investment, and build the infrastructure to turn this quiet abundance into national posperity.
To be continued tomorrow.
Charles is a political scientist, political commentator and a political strategist. He can be reached via: tweets @dollypizo.