2027: Litmus test awaits Lagos APC over Sanwo-Olu’s successor

2025 will be a challenging year for the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos. Governorship hopefuls and camps are gearing up for a supremacy battle that will determine the outcome of the forthcoming party congress and local council elections, KEHINDE OLATUNJI reports.

Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is facing another litmus test that could make or break its further governing of the state.

This year’s congress and elections into the 20 Local Governments (LGs) and 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) have pitted various tendencies and cleavages against themselves, signals of bitter rivalry among governorship aspirants are already unsettling the party leaders and impacting governance.

The rivalry is particularly fierce between the Deputy Governor, Kadiri Hamzat, and Speaker of the House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa. Other aspirants being discussed among party members include, Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila, ex-governor of the state, Akinwunmi Ambode, and Senator Tokunbo Abiru.

But the recent political manoeuvres by President Bola Tinubu’s son, Seyi, are changing the political calculation and adding a new dimension to the contest.

Although none of the aspirants have officially declared their intention to run, subtle politicking, behind-the-scenes manoeuvring, strategic alliances, and covert campaigns are already reshaping the political landscape.

While the state governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, is constitutional barred from re-contesting, having won election twice to the plum office, but some of his aides are said have pitched their tents in support of the ambition of the deputy governor for continuity and his unflinching loyalty to their boss, a situation that has caused political friction between them and Obasa’s supporters.

Party sources said there is no love lost between Sanwo-Olu and Obasa over who will emerge as the next governor of the state. And if anybody is in doubt, the drama that played out during the presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill by the governor to the state lawmakers has cleared the doubts.

When the governor and his entourage arrived at the chamber, many had expected the Speaker to announce his presence and accord him the respect his office deserves, but that was not to be. Instead, the Speaker ignored his presence, and ordered the session to continue the discussions on how the “Celebration of 2024 Men’s Day” went in the state.

Few minutes later, the governor presented the budget proposal in an atmosphere that was far from welcoming.

Obasa, who controls APC in Agege, is not hiding his ambition to succeed Sanwo-Olu in office and ready to tackle those who believe he is not qualified to govern the state. He said: “I am Obasa, and qualified to run for Lagos governor.

“I have made it a personal task to mobilise people on the platform of Mandate, which some political detractors misconstrue as a selfish aspiration to become governor. Let me state unequivocally, my focus is on strengthening our party, the APC. Becoming governor is secondary,” he said.

Obasa, however, dismissed suggestions that he lacked what it takes to govern, stating that, “Those who came before me are not better off. I am neither too young nor inexperienced to lead this state.”

One of the members of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), who pleaded for anonymity, said: “Obasa should tread carefully, there was no need for the drama, which he displayed during the budget presentation.”

According to him, “Sanwo-Olu has no dog in this fight. Why treat him and members of his cabinet like that? Is Sanwo-Olu running for a third term?”

It was also gathered that the chairman of GAC, Tajudeen Olusi, who was unhappy with the way the governor was shabbily treated by Obasa reported the incident to President Bola Tinubu, during his holiday in Lagos and expressed concerns that the matter may get out of hand, if not properly curtailed before the party’s congress and local council elections holding in the state.

Inside party sources disclosed that the President cautioned Obasa to tread softly as 2027 is too far. The President was also said to have expressed surprise at the Bill before the state Assembly that will enable lawmakers to sack the Chairman of the Lagos State Independent Electoral Commission (LASIEC), and asked Obasa, “Which governor will sign such a bill into law, anyway?”

But a new twist to the race for the flagbearer of the party is the alleged entrance of Seyi Tinubu, to slug it out with other governorship aspirants. It was gathered that his foot soldiers are already in town mobilising support for his ambition.

A party source also confided in The Guardian that the President’s son has told some party leaders of his ambition to give the governorship seat a shot.

When asked about the possibility of his ambition when his father may still re-contest for the presidency in 2027, the source said: “If you know how President Tinubu thinks, you won’t doubt it. He will allow the boy to make the noise and express himself. Maybe he will get a deputy governorship slot or another elective office. And if the party stakeholders chose him and got people’s votes, what’s wrong in that. George Bush (snr) was a President of America when his two sons were governors of different states at the same time.”

Seyi’s endorsement began in Owerri, Imo State when the Coalition of Nigerian Youth Leaders (CONYL), a body comprising youth groups from across the six geopolitical zones, endorsed him for Lagos governor.

CONYL’s leadership, including its President General, Goodluck Ibem and Secretary, Junard Abubakar, attributed their decision to Seyi’s perceived leadership qualities to the legacy of his father’s transformational governance in Lagos.

This sparked a cascade of similar endorsements, as the Lagos branch of the Middle Belt Youths has joined the call. Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), Dr Stanley Augustine Kavwam, and the group’s National Youth Leader, Captain Brent Kane, urged Seyi to step up in 2027, describing him as the leader Lagos needs.

Similarly, the Friends of Seyi Tinubu (FOST) President, Adejorin Tai Manuel, cited Seyi’s philanthropic efforts and leadership skills as proof of his readiness to govern the state.

However, the endorsements have been generating intense debate, particularly on social media, where critics have dismissed the possibility of Seyi running for the office.

A prominent Lagos APC member, Joe Igbokwe, described the endorsements as a ploy to undermine President Tinubu. He said: “Who are these faceless people pushing Seyi Tinubu for Lagos governor? This is a needless distraction. To pull PBAT down is their target. Ruling Lagos is not the job of boys.”

But Gbajabiamila has said he did not have time to think of becoming governor of Lagos State for now, because he is currently preoccupied with his duties as CoS to the President.

While addressing the General Assembly of the Surulere APC at the indoor hall of the Teslim Balogun Stadium in Lagos, he attributed such claims to detractors determined to pull him down.

He said: “I’ve heard some people say I came back from America about 20 years ago. After spending three to four years, I became the principal officer to the Minority Whip, from there I became Minority Leader, then Majority Leader, and from Majority Leader, I became Speaker.

“They thought that after becoming Speaker, my legislative career had ended, that I had reached my limit and there was nowhere else to go. It was like someone going up and suddenly nose-diving, that’s the end. Then suddenly, they heard that I was made Chief of Staff.

“They said, ‘If we sit and allow him to continue moving, he will return to Lagos to become governor.’ They think with the way I’m progressing, it’s time to quickly drag me down so I won’t have any standing in Lagos.

“Please, tell them it’s not yet time for governorship. There are still two and a half years left, it’s still far. God Almighty knows who will become the next governor.”

For Abiru, many believe that he’s banking on his financial muscle to secure the Lagos treasury key, seeing himself as the technocrat Lagos needs for its next phase of transformation. Abiru’s name is mentioned in the same breath as “progressive” in the corridors of power, but the rumour mill claims he’s also adept at maneuvering in the shadows, an art essential for the murky waters of Lagos politics.

Another name being floated to succeed Governor Sanwo-Olu in 2027 is that of Ambode. During his four-year tenure (2015-2019), he had a love-hate relationship with APC leadership, ultimately leading to the truncation of his 2019 re-election bid.

His time in office is fondly remembered for proactively addressing Lagos State’s challenges, particularly infrastructure achievements – notably rejuvenating Oshodi’s transport hub and constructing new bridges and inner-city roads across 57 LGs and LCDAs.

Recently, Ambode’s political stock has risen steadily, with his rehabilitation from the margins back to mainstream gaining pace. Various groups support his return, describing his previous tenure as transformative and seeking completion of his initiatives.

However, many believe securing critical stakeholders’ support is vital for aspirants vying to succeed Sanwo-Olu in 2027. And, the outcome likely hinges significantly on President Tinubu’s preference, given his enduring influence over Lagos State affairs. The President’s choice, alongside other factors such as religion, zoning considerations and the GAC, will shape the contest.

The state Publicity Secretary of the party, Seye Oladejo, has blamed the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for spreading rumours of in-fighting among APC leaders in Lagos State.

He disclosed: “The party has not spoken about the 2027 election. This is the time for impactful governance, not needless politicking to heat the polity.”

He, however, denied war of attrition among potential aspirants within the party. Oladejo also emphasised that the party’s current focus is on its forthcoming congress and local government elections in 2025, urging members to prioritise unity and progress.

But, the chairman of the PDP in Lagos, Philip Aivoji, denied the party’s involvement in the alleged endorsements and internal wrangling in the ruling party.

Political analyst, Kunle Egbeyemi, noted that it is too early for Lagos APC members to start fighting over party ticket in 2025 when Sanwo-Olu is still struggling to justify the second mandate given to him by the people.

He said: “The 2027 governorship debate is unnecessarily early. Rather than fueling speculation, our leaders should concentrate on addressing pressing issues affecting Lagosians, such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, and economic empowerment.”