Ahead of Saturday’s off-cycle governorship election in Anambra State, candidates of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), All Progressives Congress (APC) and Labour Party (LP) have been ranked as the top contenders for victory, according to a new opinion poll released in Abuja.

The poll, however, published by the African Development Institute of Research Methodology (ADIRM), places incumbent governor and APGA candidate, Prof. Chukwuma Charles Soludo, significantly ahead of the pack, with APC’s Nicholas Ukachukwu and LP’s George Moghalu trailing.

Director of the Institute, Temitope Olufunmi Atoyebi, while presenting the findings, told reporters that the exercise was a data-driven voter behaviour mapping designed to provide a non-partisan basis for forecasting likely outcomes.

He said the poll is part of ADIRM’s broader attempt to deepen electoral research, political engagement and policy conversations using credible evidence rather than political rhetoric.

According to the report, which was conducted between October 1 and 31, 2025, Soludo is projected to win all 21 local government areas (LGAs) with no fewer than 85.7 per cent of voter preference from a stratified sample of 73,500 registered voters, 3,500 sampled per LGA, while the APC and LP candidates are projected to secure 7.6 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively. Other parties collectively received 1.7 per cent.

Atoyebi attributed Soludo’s advantage to what respondents described as visible project delivery — including road rehabilitation, urban regeneration programmes, youth skills support initiatives and improvements in education access. He said over 90 per cent of respondents expressed readiness to vote on November 8, which he interpreted as a signal of rising electoral confidence in the state.

But despite the strong projection in favour of the incumbent, observers say the interplay of voter turnout, last-minute mobilisation and security deployment on election day could still shift real-life outcomes away from pre-election polls — especially in urban LGAs where last-minute swing behaviour is common.

“Polls are scientific snapshots, not election results,” an analyst familiar with Anambra’s political terrain said on Tuesday. “The ground game will matter in Onitsha, Nnewi, Ihiala and Awka.”

Atoyebi maintained that the findings should not be read through partisan lenses, noting that they represent “a scientific reflection of voter sentiment as at end-October.”

He urged stakeholders to respect empirical research while allowing the ballot to speak on Saturday.