… Says alliance insufficient to unseat Tinubu in 2027

… Insists governance record, not opposition grievances, will decide contest

A support group within the All Progressives Congress (APC), BTO4PBAT, has disclosed that the proposed alliance between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi would not be sufficient to defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

The group, in a statement, argued that the arithmetic of combining opposition support bases could not automatically translate into electoral victory, stressing that voter loyalty and political structures cannot simply be transferred through an alliance between political leaders.

According to the group, Nigeria’s political history has demonstrated that coalitions formed primarily for electoral purposes often face challenges arising from competing ambitions, regional considerations and differences in political interests.

The statement, signed by the Director General of BTO4PBAT, Adesuyi Adojutelegan, noted that a possible Atiku-Obi alliance would first have to resolve questions about leadership and political direction before convincing their respective supporters to work as one political bloc.

Adojutelegan maintained that the proposed opposition merger would face the difficult task of transforming separate support bases into a single, coordinated political movement, adding that unity on paper does not necessarily translate into unity at the polls.

The group further stressed that the opposition coalition would need to overcome deep-rooted structural and personal political differences before it could present a credible challenge to the governing party.

The group also cited the advantages of incumbency, including the governing All Progressives Congress’ existing political structures across the 36 states of the federation, as a decisive factor that would work in President Tinubu’s favour in 2027.

It further pointed to the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, saying the government’s record of policies and ongoing projects would form an important part of the president’s campaign for a second term.

According to the group, the BTO4PBAT campaign will focus on what it described as governance and delivery, rather than opposition grievances, adding that voters would assess the administration based on what had been achieved, what was being implemented, and what remained to be delivered.

The group also harped on the different political backgrounds and support bases associated with Atiku and Obi, stating that “Atiku contested the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while Obi contested on the Labour Party (LP) platform.

‘Both have remained prominent figures in discussions surrounding efforts to build a stronger opposition coalition ahead of 2027.”

The group maintained that bringing the two political camps together would involve more than an agreement between their principals, noting that the supporters of the two politicians would also have to embrace a common political project.

It maintained that Tinubu’s camp would enter the 2027 contest with what it described as a more unified message, built around one presidential candidate, one governing party structure and the administration’s policy agenda.

The group expressed confidence that the president’s political coalition would withstand efforts by opposition parties to forge a broader alliance before the election.

It, however, acknowledged that opposition negotiations could remain a significant feature of the political landscape as the 2027 election approaches, noting that the ultimate strength of any proposed opposition coalition would depend on its ability to establish common leadership, a shared programme and sustained support beyond agreements reached among political leaders.