Inadequate number of personnel deployed by Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), which limits the number of polling units covered has been blamed for the controversy their 2023 general elections reports generated among Nigerians and international community.

The Guardian checks revealed that none of the local or foreign observers accredited for the elections deployed up to 10 per cent (17,661) of the 176,606 polling units across the country used for the exercise, putting a big question mark on the reliability, objectivity, and accuracy of their assessments.

According to the figures obtained from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 190 local and 34 foreign observer groups applied and were accredited to observe last elections. But the overall deployment statistics showed that they did not make adequate provisions for personnel to cover the grounds in each of the 36 states and Abuja.

It was gathered that while some of the groups sent a very limited number of observers to the 36 states and Abuja, majority could only cover few states, with many deploying as little as one observer to a state.

The commission conducted elections in 176, 606 Polling Units (PUs) spreading across 8,809 Wards in 774 Local Councils, domiciled in 36 states and the FCT, Abuja. Experts believe that to derive an objective and near-accurate assessment of such a massive exercise, an observer group should adequately cover at least 60 per cent of the total polling units across the country, translating to 105,963 PUs. However, while some of the observers sent a disproportionate number of their personnel to Abuja, Lagos and Delta States, many of them deployed a limited number of observers to states with security issues. The figures obtained were contained in the observer groups’ submissions to INEC, but it is not clear if the actual number of observers deployed for the election conformed to their various submissions.

For instance INEC report showed that, “YIAGA Africa purportedly deployed 5,676 observers across the 36 states and the FCT. While it sent 1,027 observers to the FCT, which has 2,822 Polling Units (PUs), only 469 observers were deployed to Kano State with 11,222 PUs; 425 observers went to Delta State with 5,863 PUs; 258 observers covered Lagos with 13,325 PUs; 117 observers went to Anambra with 5,720 PUs, while only 110 observers went to Niger State with 4,950 PUs.

“The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) purportedly deployed 5,345 observers to the 36 states and Abuja. 168 observers were sent to Benue State with 5,102 PUs; 124 to Imo State (4,758 PUs); 98 to Ondo State (3,933 PUs); 84 to Taraba State (3,597 PUs), 73 to Zamfara State (3,529 PUs) and 78 to Kebbi State (3,743 PUs).

“The Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room/Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre presumably deployed only 2,410 observers nationwide, out of which 101 observers went to Oyo State with 6,390 PUs; 102 to Katsina State (6652 PUs); 63 to Adamawa State (4,104 PUs); 72 to Rivers (6,866 PUs); 50 to Plateau State (4,989 PUs) and 80 to Kogi State (3,508 PUs), among others.

“The Cardinal Onaiyekan Foundation deployed just 92 observers to 30 states, which include three observers each to Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Sokoto, Taraba, Enugu, and Abia states; and one observer each to Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Benue, Imo, Ondo, and Rivers states.

“On its part, ActionAid sent 700 observers to 17 states, including 103 to Enugu State; 118 to the FCT; 84 to Kano State; 14 to Niger State; 74 to Rivers State, one to Imo State, 108 to Lagos State and 15 to Yobe State.

“The Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) deployed 190 observers to 15 states, including 30 each to Benue and Borno States; 25 to Kaduna State; and one each to Cross River, Delta, Gombe, Katsina, Kebbi, Kogi, and Plateau states.”

It’s the same story for international observers. The European Election Union Observation Mission  (EU-EOM) could only muster 172 observers for the 36 states and Abuja. While it sent the highest number of observers – 74 to Abuja alone, 16 observers were deployed to Lagos State; and 8 each were sent to Kano and Plateau states. Only one observer each went to Kebbi, Kogi, Ogun, Ondo, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara states, among others.

It was revealed that: “The International Republican Institute (IRI) assigned 50 observers to 10 states, with 41 of them covering Abuja alone with the remaining nine sent to nine states – Adamawa, Delta, Ebonyi, Imo, Kaduna, Kano, Ondo, Osun, and Plateau states.

“Also, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) deployed 100 observers to 11 states, with 89 or 89 per cent of the total number covering the FCT alone. The ECOWAS Mission engaged 284 observers for 31 states, 75 of which covered the FCT, 27 went to Lagos state; 21 to Kano state; seven to Niger state, and three each to Abia, Cross River, Ebonyi, Imo and Osun states among others.”

A source said that the implication is that no observer group can authoritatively produce an overall accurate and objective assessment of the 2023 general election.

“Nigeria is vast and massive geographically. Therefore, for the 2023 elections, the best thing is for each observer group to produce its report based only on the areas that it covered and does so fairly. Doing otherwise would amount to a conjecture and outright dishonesty. But what we have seen is that every observer group is now making definitive statements as if it covered the entire country, which is really not the case. This is quite sad.

“Interestingly, the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, which deployed about half of the number of observers deployed by YIAGA and the CDD, has curiously been more vocal about the election than everybody else. It has made several statements about the elections, which gave the impression that it adequately covered the entire country when it did not,” the source said.

At a recent presentation of its report in Abuja, the Situation Room asked the INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, to apologise to the country for conducting what it described as a “flawed” election. Also, the Situation Room, in a statement, claimed to have conducted a post-election survey without providing the details, which “exposed a significant dip in citizens’ confidence in the INEC.”

It added: “In the light of the upcoming off-cycle governorship elections in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa in November 2023, the Situation Room is worried about the credibility of INEC and its ability to conduct free elections in the light of the shortcomings experienced during the general elections of February and March 2023.”

The Situation Room also questioned INEC’s ability to conduct the Imo, Bayelsa and Kogi off-cycle governorship elections scheduled for November 11, asking President Bola Tinubu to institute a Panel of Enquiry to investigate how the electoral body conducted what it described as a “flawed presidential election.” In what appeared like a contradiction, the statement noted: “(The) Situation Room is not in any way tying its call to the outcome of the 2023 general elections.”

But the Convener of the Situation Room, Mr. Yinua Zakari Yau faulted INEC’s position that CSO’s did not deploy enough personnel to monitor the election to provide adequate information to present credible result .

Speaking to The Guardian on telephone yesterday, Yau said: “Election observation any where in the world work on statistic from the samples and write its report based on the information from the field. We stand by our report and insist that it is credible and objective by all standard.

“We are not expecting INEC to challenge CSO’s reports, but to work on identified flaws to improve on subsequent elections. It is a known fact that iRev did not work. This is against its promise to all Nigerians. It is also a known fact that INEC staff and materials did not arrive early at some polling units and this has become a recurrent decimal that they need to work on. We can continue to mention inherent flaws identified in the last elections.

“The truth is that the time has come to review how electoral officers are appointed. We saw former President Muhammadu Buhari signing appointment of some INEC commissioners few hours to handing over to President Bola Tinubu and these people are card-carrying members of some political parties. The case of what happened in Adamawa state has political undertone and the country must provide solutions to all these issues.”

A leader in CSOs, who craved for anonymity, told The Guardian that it is wrong for INEC to be looking for justification for its failures in delivering credible elections to Nigerians.

He said: “CSO’s collaborate and an observer can monitor several polling units. We are not interrogating the outcome of the election, we are simply reviewing the process and identifying flaws and what is expected of INEC is not to find excuses for failures but work on solutions for a better future election.”

But the chairman, Partners for Electoral Reforms, Mr. Ezenwa Nwagwu, countered the Situation Room, insisting that the idea that the INEC chairman should apologise to Nigerians was not part of the report jointly agreed upon. Nwagwu, who spoke openly at the venue of the event where the Situation Room report was unveiled, also disagreed with the notion that nothing good came out of the 2023 general election.

He noted that the Yakubu-led Commission managed to conduct the election on schedule without postponing it, as witnessed in 2011, 2015 and 2019, despite its avalanche of challenges. He listed some of the challenges as shortage of cash occasioned by the Central Bank policy of “re-colouring” the naira, acute fuel shortages, the insecurity in some parts of the country, and the perennial problem of logistics.

Nwagwu argued that many things underscored the election’s credibility despite the challenges. According to him, the current President lost the presidential election in his strongest base – Lagos, while the ruling party’s chairman also lost his constituency, just as many governors lost their bids for the Senate.

He said: “I’m not saying that there were no issues. An election is not a church service. The election is a competitive enterprise. We give comfort to the real people who cause challenges in the election. INEC does not cause voter suppression. Politicians do, in collaboration with disgruntled INEC officials. INEC does not unleash violence; politicians unleash violence and their political parties.

“Now, 90 per cent of the time, in discussing the 2023 election, you focus on INEC, and you leave the role of security agents. You leave the role of the political parties and their candidates and the role they play in making bad elections. INEC will bring its ballot box. INEC officials were killed in the 2023 election. They are Nigerians. INEC officials were kidnapped. Who kidnapped them? Who murdered some of them? We provide comfort for the political class and their inability to embrace reforms and conduct themselves in a manner that allows for free and fair elections.

“So I’m not saying there were no issues, and nobody can say that. But I am more interested in the positives. Those who criticise, when you say INEC said it would upload results in real-time, and it didn’t do so; I am saying that you are dealing with a moral issue. It has nothing to do with the law. Because the law has been satisfied when collation and announcements have been concluded.”