Ahead of the 2027 general election, ODUN EDWARD writes that unfolding political trends in Kwara State indicate that a keen contest awaits the candidates of the various political parties, who all claim to have devised better winning strategies.

As the countdown to the 2027 general election begins, Kwara State may be the cynosure of all eyes due to the unfolding trends of politicking in the state that has pitted the incumbent against a structured opposition led by former Senate President, Bukola Saraki.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), under the leadership of the Governor AbdulRahaman AbdulRazaq, appears not bothered by the resurgence of the opposition. However, political analysts in the state believe that the battle for the soul of the state in the 2027 elections may not be a tea party as speculated in some quarters.

An Ilorin based social critic, Abdulkareem Olola-Kasum, said: “I had never in my life supported the Sarakis on political issues, but comparing the strength of the opposition parties, especially the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and that of the ruling party (APC), I will slightly rate the PDP higher due to the structure it has at the ward and state levels. But in terms of power of incumbency, the APC holds the ace.”

Many PDP members interviewed by The Guardian in Ilorin said their allegiance are not to the party, but to Saraki, a two term governor of the state with an age-long solid political structure bequeathed to him by his biological father, Olusola Saraki.

Olusola Saraki came into politics when he contested in the 1964 parliamentary election for Ilorin as an independent candidate but lost. After the election, he returned to his medical practice in Lagos, but returned to party-politics in 1978/79. His political stardom was when he became the Senate Leader in the Second Republic, carrying the banner of the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN). He ended up producing successive governors of the state, including Bukola, his son. The invincibility of his political structure was however dismantled six years ago by the ‘O to ge’ political movement. The movement ushered in the government of AbdulRazaq.

However, the ward and state congresses recently conducted by the PDP in the state has injected life into the structure of the party. According to sources, Saraki did not meddle into the process of electing the new ward and state executives.

At the peaceful congress held in Ilorin, Adamu Issa from Kaiama in the Kwara North Senatorial District emerged as the state chairman, scoring 1,498 votes from 1,572 accredited delegates.

Other elected officials include  Wasilat Macarthy (Deputy Chairman), Abdullahi AbdulRahman (Secretary ), Cornelius Fawenu (Treasurer), Umar Shero (Financial secretary), Olusegun Olushola (Publicity Secretary), Monsurat Omotosho (Legal Adviser) and Musa Bashir (Auditor).

In his remarks at the end of the congress, the former Senate President commended party members for what he described as a demonstration of maturity, fairness, and internal democracy.

According to him, “the PDP has once again shown that it is the party that provides a level playing field and prioritises the will of the people.”  He added: “At PDP, the INEC officials can see that we are very mature and peaceful. I am very sure that in other parties’ congresses, you will need security because they are not coordinated and may end up throwing chairs, as they usually do. The maturity displayed in Kwara State congresses is a reflection of the national character of our great party.”

The immediate past state chairman of the party, Babatunde Mohammed, said the PDP in Kwara was “firmly on ground and fully prepared” to challenge the ruling APC in the 2027 general election.

Mohammed, who hails from Kwara South Senatorial District, added: “As far as the Kwara PDP is concerned, we are one big family, well prepared for the task ahead. With the support of the people, we are firmly on the ground and ready to challenge the APC as the main opposition party in 2027.”

In his acceptance speech, the new chairman pledged to work with other executives and stakeholders to reposition the party ahead of 2027 elections.
“We are committed to the development of the party both at the state and national levels. We will work together with stakeholders to regain power in Kwara State in 2027,” he said.

But barely after the congress, the immediate past state chairman of the party made a surprise appearance at the opening ceremony of the secretariat of Kwara State chapter of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The event, coordinated by the National Publicity Secretary of the party, Bolaji Abdullahi, and attended by the National Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola and former governor of Kwara State, Abdulfattah Ahmed, was a funfair. Musicians had a field day while Aregbesola and other chieftains of the party took the centre stage, dancing to sounds.

Sources alleged that Mohammed’s exit from the PDP was personal and part of his democratic freedom to make his political choice. According to a reliable source in the PDP, “Mohammed didn’t resign his position at the PDP before leaving for ADC. He outlived his tenure and he was fully involved at the election of his successor. So, I don’t think it was a rancorous move but a personal choice which is allowed under democracy.”

Mohammed from Omupo ward in Ifelodun Local Council of the state was a former Speaker of the state House of Assembly. He presided over the Sixth Assembly, which was in session from June 2007 to June 2011.

A PDP chieftain in Kwara, Hajia Nimota Ibrahim, believes the political structure of ‘Oloye’, an appellation for the Sarakis, will enable the PDP to win the next round of elections in the state. Ibrahim, a former Commissioner for Education and an ex-member of the House of Assembly, said:

“The Oloye’s true disciples will never walk away from ‘Ile-Loke’ (the political headquarters of the political dynasty in Ilorin). We are today stronger than yesterday and we are poised for stronger comebacks come the year 2027. We can’t discuss our strategies here, but those who understand politicking will perceive some of our moves that can never be stopped by any group. We hold the ace because we are the most experienced in this game.”

As the PDP may be covertly ruing the departure of Mohammed, the web of the party in the state have also caught two political stalwarts in Mashood Atanda Mustapha, a former House of Representatives member and Saheed Popoola, an Offa born former member of the state legislative arm. Mustapha, a former chieftain of the APC, made his public appearance with the PDP at its recent congress in Ilorin. He represented Asa/Ilorin West Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives between 2011 and 2015.

Currently, the Ilorin-born politician is being touted as a leading contender for the governorship ticket of the PDP in the state. But he will contest against the likes of Dr. Ali Ahmad, a former speaker of the House of Assembly (2015 – 2019).

Speaking with The Guardian in Ilorin, an on-air personality in Kwara, Popoola, cited an unconfirmed statistics that put the political structure of the Sarakis at being 35 per cent ahead of any other political structure in the state.

According to Popoola, “Saraki is the only politician in this state with about 35 per cent structure ahead of others before these elections. The structure, well rooted in the existing 16 local councils of the state, can conveniently win elections across the state. If anyone is claiming the power of incumbency as a factor in the forthcoming elections, he is fooling himself. No power can succeed against the powers of the people. Saraki has gotten it back; I can confidently declare.”

Reacting to the claim in a chat with The Guardian in Ilorin, the state chairman of the APC, Sunday Fagbemi, dismissed “the moves and talks” of the opposition in the state.

“What structure are they talking about?” he asked. “We dismantled it in 2019 and won 100 per cent in 2023. So, it is the wishful thinking of those talking about structure. They are fantasising. They are depleting on a daily basis and breaking down into factions. We are unperturbed because our own structure is waxing stronger on a daily basis. We will trounce them again anytime and at any day. We have the winning strategies and we will be victorious again.”

On his part, the chairman of the ‘third force’ in the state, the ADC, Prince Jolayemi Akadi, noted that defectors to the party “know what is at stake and they are joining us to help reposition Kwara and Nigeria.”

Akadi, however, added a caveat: “To succeed, we must be selfless like our national leaders who have shown readiness to step aside for others in the interest of coalition building.”

The Kwara ADC chairman emphasised the party’s commitment to accommodating strategic allies, stressing the importance of compromise and collaboration.

“In a merger or coalition, there must be give and take. Positions are not permanent. We must be ready to make way when necessary to strengthen the platform,” he added.  Kwarans are waiting to see the party that will walk its talk in the 2027 elections.