Although the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) have alternated power in Osun State since 1999, how far both parties are able to address internal crises will determine who carries the day in the forthcoming governorship poll, SEYE OLUMIDE reports.

If it was intended to tilt the balance of strength between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), that did not happen. But by now, the four federal lawmakers who defected from PDP to APC in Osun State must be reassessing their choices.

Currently, that move, which was considered very hasty by the lawmakers in their anticipation that the state chief executive, Ademola Nurudeen Adeleke, was on his way to the federal ruling party, has become a subject of reappraisal. The defectors are struggling to gain recognition in their new party, with dim prospects of retaining their seats in 2027.

These are the concerned lawmakers: Senator Francis Fadahunsi (Osun East), Senator Olubiyi Fadeyi (Osun Central), Omirin Olusanya (Atakumosa East/West and Ilesa East/West Federal Constituency), and Taofeek Ajilesoro (Ife Central/East/North/South).

They had resigned from PDP, citing irreconcilable differences with the party’s leadership. But months later, dense clouds now surround their political futures.

However, in their new political abode, among the major hurdles confronting them is the ambition of some APC “landlords”, equally eyeing senatorial and other elective seats, who reject any talk of automatic tickets for newcomers in 2027.

The defectors were also jolted when their constituents refused to join them in the APC, even as many of their legislative aides quit their jobs, saying that they could not leave the ruling party in the state.

The shock of the four runaway PDP lawmakers deepened when some APC gladiators openly opposed the speculated crossover of Governor Adeleke. The thinking now is that even if APC wins the 2026 governorship poll, their survival will also depend largely on the new governor, who may likely back his loyalists in the constituencies of the defectors.

Residents liken their plight to that of Senators Adeseye Ogunlewe and Musiliu Obanikoro, who, after defecting from the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) to the PDP in Lagos between 2003 and 2007, failed to regain political relevance under Bola Tinubu’s firm grip. History could repeat itself in Osun, that is, if Adeleke does not falter.

But, in the midst of what could be described as their political miscalculation, the ruling PDP is also facing challenges, especially after leaders from Ife Federal Constituency passed a vote of no confidence in the Deputy Governor, Kola Adewusi, and former National Secretary, Prof. Wale Oladipo, over alleged anti-party activities. The communiqué, signed by 39 chieftains, including two serving commissioners, accused the duo of undermining the party.

Beyond these local developments, PDP’s national crisis ahead of its November elective convention could also affect the Osun chapter in the 2026 governorship poll.

The nearest challenger to PDP and APC is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), anchored by former governor Rauf Aregbesola, though still inchoate stage. Investigations reveal that aside from PDP, APC and ADC, other parties exist only in name and billboards in Osun politics.

Power, allure of incumbency
DESPITE PDP’s troubles, Governor Adeleke continues to dominate Osun’s political landscape. Once known as the “dancing senator,” Adeleke has turned his celebrity aura into grassroots validation through civil service welfare, youth and women empowerment, and infrastructural rehabilitation.

Across the state, he resonates among the masses as a governor who “connects with ordinary people,” contrasting with his predecessor, Gboyega Oyetola, who is considered aloof and distant. It was gathered that Adeleke’s popularity informed the call on him by some APC leaders to defect.

Sources confirmed that President Bola Tinubu himself hosted a Lagos meeting with Adeleke, his brother Deji, and music star, Davido, to finalise the plan. That was until entrenched interests in Osun APC scuttled it, out of apprehension that his entry would dwarf their clout and thwart their ambitions.

“It would have been a masterstroke if Adeleke had joined us. But selfish elements rejected the plan. Now, defeating him is nearly impossible,” an aggrieved APC chieftain told The Guardian.

The lawmakers’ woes are compounded by the APC’s divisions. The party has yet to recover from its 2022 governorship loss, which insiders blame on complacency during Oyetola’s tenure.

Today, APC remains fractured, with factions loyal to different powerbrokers. Former Deputy Governor Iyiola Omisore has indicated interest in contesting in 2026, while Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO), Managing Director of NIWA and Tinubu loyalist, is also nursing ambition.

Rather than unite the party, these competing interests have deepened its cracks. Grassroots members complain of exclusion and accuse the leadership of chasing personal goals instead of building cohesion.

While APC struggles, Adeleke has consolidated PDP’s structure. Unlike his late elder brother, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, who was known for cross-party ties, Adeleke uses his personality and bond with the electorate to strengthen the PDP.

His machinery penetrates rural areas through cultural festivals, youth associations and women cooperatives. He also gained sympathy by clearing salary arrears and prioritising welfare, sore points under Oyetola.

“Adeleke is not just dancing; he is organising. He connects emotionally with people, and that is something APC has failed to match,” a political analyst in Osogbo said.

Tinubu’s presidency was expected to boost the APC in Osun, but Adeleke’s grassroots connection has blunted that advantage. Meanwhile, rising hardship from subsidy removal and inflation has tainted APC’s brand, while Adeleke distances himself from unpopular federal policies.

The biggest losers are the defected lawmakers. Stripped of PDP’s grassroots backing and struggling for acceptance in a divided APC, they face survival battles. Already, whispers in APC suggest they may not secure tickets in 2027, as loyalists insist on rewarding “true members” over “political opportunists.”

PDP: Between resilience and red flags
ON the hurried terms by the four lawmakers, Chairman of the Governing Council of Osun State College of Technology, Esa-Oke, Prince Diran Odeyemi, said their miscalculation would have consequences. “They thought APC would give them security, but they only walked into uncertainty. Unless Adeleke stumbles badly, they may never return to office.”

Odeyemi said PDP in Osun has never been about individuals, but collective values and service, adding, “the exit of any member cannot derail its structure or focus.”

“Adeleke has consolidated PDP by aligning with his family’s political legacy and upholding prudent management of state resources. When he assembled his cabinet, he warned appointees that misappropriation would lead straight to EFCC. That principle sustains public confidence,” he said.

Even at that, PDP tends to be shifty based on its severed relationship with Aregbesola and his supporters, whose collaboration helped the governor win in 2022.

Defection politics
BEYOND the four lawmakers, other prominent PDP figures have defected since 2023. Elder statesman and PDP BoT member Shuaib Oyedokun and former governorship aspirant Dotun Babayemi joined the APC in May 2024, a symbolic blow to Adeleke.

In April 2025, six-term lawmaker Oluwole Busayo Oke also resigned from PDP, further weakening its National Assembly representation.

The state has seen mass movements, too. In July 2024, hundreds of PDP and Action Democratic Party (ADP) members defected to APC in Ikire, citing nepotism and maladministration. Again, in 2025, scores of PDP members and loyalists of Aregbesola’s Omoluabi Progressive Group joined APC in Ejigbo Local Government.

Analysts note that defections reflect growing discontent within the PDP and a resurgence of the APC’s grassroots mobilisation ahead of the 2026 and 2027 elections. While Adeleke’s camp insists defections will not affect cohesion, opposition voices argue they have reshaped Osun’s political terrain.

APC’s Director of Information and Strategy, Kola Olabisi, dismissed insinuations that defected lawmakers regret joining APC. He also rejected claims that the opposition may face challenges in selecting its 2026 gubernatorial candidate, saying such views come from “fifth columnists or agents of the PDP.”

According to him, APC is capitalising on Adeleke’s “notoriety”, which, he claimed, has drawn the state back in terms of development. “What is paramount to APC is how to oust the PDP from power in 2026 and bring Osun back into the fold of progressive states in South-West,” he said.

Olabisi also faulted Adeleke’s administration for failing to deliver the dividends of democracy to the people of Osun, as his predecessors, like Oyetola, did.

Lightweight parties
ADC and several other political parties are also active in Osun State, though their activities remain relatively subdued ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial election. The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) appears to be the most visible among them.

In recent months, it has intensified grassroots mobilisation, inaugurated local government structures, and openly courted former governor Rauf Aregbesola and his Omoluabi Progressives faction, signalling its intent to mount a strong challenge and possibly forge alliances to unseat the PDP.

Other registered parties include the Labour Party (LP), which once fielded former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yusuf Lasun, as its gubernatorial candidate in 2022 before he defected to the PDP. The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) are also on the ballot, though with limited visibility in the state.

Additional minor parties such as Action Alliance (AA), Accord, African Action Congress (AAC), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Action Democratic Party (ADP), Young Progressives Party (YPP) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) are recognised by the Osun State Independent Electoral Commission. However, their preparations for 2026 remain largely at the level of maintaining registration and occasional local presence, without significant statewide mobilisation.

As the 2026 election approaches, both PDP and APC face internal storms. For Adeleke, defections, strained ties with Aregbesola, and intra-party quarrels could become liabilities. For APC, deep divisions, rival ambitions, and loss of grassroots touch remain stumbling blocks despite Tinubu’s federal influence.

ADC, NNPP and other minor parties may play spoiler roles or enter alliances, even as their limited spread makes them fringe actors.

As the countdown to Osun 2026 begins, former governor Rauf Aregbesola is quietly plotting a political comeback. Having distanced himself from the APC, after a bruising rift with his successor, Oyetola, the former Interior Minister is now positioning ADC as a viable third force to upstage both the ruling PDP and his estranged APC.

Aregbesola, who governed Osun between 2010 and 2018, still commands a loyal grassroots network, particularly within the Omoluabi Caucus, a group of supporters who stood by him through his fallout with Oyetola. His recent moves, meetings with party leaders, quiet consultations across senatorial districts, and the push to reposition ADC in the state, suggest that he intends to leverage the party as a vehicle for his loyalists and aggrieved politicians sidelined in both PDP and APC.

Aregbesola’s calculation is said to hinge on three factors: the deepening internal crisis in the PDP, which is already struggling to manage rival factions loyal to Governor Adeleke; the disharmony within APC, where the lingering Oyetola-Aregbesola feud remains unresolved; and the rising frustration among Osun voters disenchanted with the two dominant parties. By presenting ADC as a refuge for defectors, Aregbesola seems to be building a coalition that cuts across other existing political structures.

While some observers doubt ADC’s capacity to dislodge the entrenched machinery of PDP and APC, others hold that Osun’s political history gives room for upsets. The 2007 and 2010 elections, which eventually brought Aregbesola to power after protracted legal battles, reflected the volatility of the state’s electorate. With Adeleke expected to seek a second term and APC battling to recover from its 2022 defeat, Aregbesola sees 2026 as a window to reassert his influence.

Already, reports indicate that ADC is gaining new members from local government politicians and ex-lawmakers alienated in both PDP and APC. If the trend continues, the party could emerge as a serious contender, especially if it forms alliances with smaller parties or leverages Aregbesola’s strong base in Osogbo, Ijesa, and parts of Ife.

Whether the ADC experiment will succeed remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Aregbesola is not retreating from Osun politics. Instead, he is banking on a third force strategy to challenge the two dominant parties in 2026.

For now, Adeleke’s grassroots popularity and PDP’s organisational resilience outweigh the opposition’s manoeuvres. Yet, with defections continuing and both parties locked in crisis, Osun’s 2026 governorship race promises to be highly unpredictable.