Efforts to modernise ground transportation at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA), Lagos, could trigger higher fares, weaken competition and threaten the livelihoods of existing operators if regulators fail to provide a realistic transition pathway for drivers and passengers, a new policy brief has warned.

The report, titled, ‘Modernising Airport Transport Without Leaving Drivers and Passengers Behind: Transformative Transport Service Dilemmas in Nigeria and Lessons for Global Transport Reform’, was published in August 2026 by the Transformative Transport Service Design Initiative (TRATSEDI), a research and engagement network.

It said the introduction of the Airport Car Hire Rank Management System and requirements regarding vehicle age at the Lagos airport were part of efforts to improve safety, accountability, service quality, and operational order.

However, TRATSEDI cautioned that imposing higher service standards without providing operators with affordable means of meeting them could shift the cost of reform to drivers and, ultimately, passengers.

According to the report, many airport taxi operators could face substantial capital requirements if compelled to replace existing vehicles, potentially forcing them to borrow heavily, sell assets, increase fares, relocate their operations or leave the market altogether.

The report argued that the issue should not be reduced to a dispute over vehicle age, describing it instead as a broader transport ecosystem challenge involving regulation, technology, driver livelihoods, consumer welfare, competition and the wider economic environment.

TRATSEDI said transport modernisation inevitably comes with costs, including vehicle replacement, digital systems, licensing, monitoring, maintenance, training and compliance.

Where individual drivers are required to finance substantially more expensive vehicles without access to affordable credit, it said, the burden of transformation effectively falls on service providers.

The report warned that operators could pass part of the additional costs to passengers through higher fares.

It recommended alternatives including vehicle leasing, affordable credit, cooperative financing, phased compliance, credit guarantees, vehicle scrappage schemes and partnerships between financial institutions and vehicle suppliers.

The policy brief also examined the growing role of e-hailing platforms such in airport transportation.

It noted that digital platforms had increased passengers’ ability to compare prices, identify drivers, make cashless payments and arrange journeys before or after arriving at the airport.

According to the report, competition between traditional airport taxis and e-hailing services could improve prices, vehicle quality, convenience and the overall service experience.

However, it warned against treating digital platforms as automatic transformative mobility, noting that commissions, algorithmic management and changing contractual conditions could also shift costs and risks to drivers.

TRATSEDI called for a regulatory environment that allows traditional taxis and e-hailing platforms to compete under transparent and proportionate rules, while maintaining appropriate safety, identification and operational standards.

The report urged authorities to move beyond simply importing international “best practices” and develop solutions suited to Nigeria’s economic and institutional realities.

The report also recommended continuous monitoring of fares, waiting times, safety incidents, accessibility, passenger satisfaction, driver earnings and the number of participating providers.