Nigeria’s telecommunications sector is projected to shift from consolidation in 2025 to aggressive expansion this year. The acceleration is expected to be driven by a strategic, two-pronged approach centred on massive fibre optic backbone deployment and satellite-based last-mile connectivity, ADEYEMI ADEPETUN writes.

The Nigerian telecommunications sector stands at a pivotal juncture. While the previous year (2025) was marked by consolidation, resilience amid a huge quality of service complaints, 2026 is widely anticipated to be a year of accelerated growth. This phase of growth is largely predicated on the complementary revolutions of fibre-optic infrastructure and satellite connectivity.

Industry bodies like the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) and the Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON) project a positive outlook, driven by rising digital demand, sustained industry investment, and crucial regulatory alignment.

The central question remains: will the combined force of fibre and satellite finally deliver a deep, ubiquitous digital inclusion nationwide?
Indeed, while it is now obvious that Nigeria will not meet the 70 per cent broadband target set for last December, because as of November 2025, the country was only able to attain 50.58 per cent, leaving a gap of 19.42 per cent from the National Broadband 2020-2025 target, data consumption, however, reached a milestone last year.

As of last November, Nigerians had consumed 1.24 million terabytes of data, according to the Nigerian Communications Commission. When the last subscription data (December Statistics) is out, data consumption is expected to leap significantly based on the massive online activities that are associated with the festive period.

Arguably, telephone services were not at their best in 2025, according to the President, National Association of Telecom Subscribers of Nigeria (NATCOMs), Deolu Ogunbanjo, who is, however, optimistic that 2026 will be better based on anticipated investments in the sector, especially in fibre, satellite, hyperscale data centres, AI infrastructure, among others.

The Chairman of ALTON, Gbenga Adebayo, also shared the same sentiments, saying operators look forward to a more stable sector, having more FDI, expanding coverage to underserved areas and improvements in QoS.  

Expected fibre revolution
FOR 2026, the core feature is the accelerated rollout of the Building Resilient Digital Infrastructure for Growth (BRIDGE) Project, a $2 billion initiative designed to create a non-discriminatory national digital backbone. ATCON President Tony Emoekpere, described the project as a major confidence booster for the industry.

The sector is expected to transition from an estimated 35,000 km of fibre to the commencement of a 90,000 km expansion. This aims to extend the national fibre optic network to a total of approximately 125,000 km, significantly deepening connectivity.

The new backbone will operate on an open-access, wholesale basis. This is a major structural shift intended to foster competition, to allow small and medium-sized Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) to lease capacity fairly, breaking the near-monopoly of existing MNOs.

Fibre roll-out, according to the Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr Bosun Tijani, will drive down the wholesale cost of bandwidth, which is expected to translate into more affordable retail data tariffs for consumers.

Earlier this year, Tijani recalled that 2025 was an inflection year, “focused on moving our digital economy from ambition to committed execution. Much of the work happened below the surface, centred on securing approvals, mobilising partners and ensuring our priorities are not only visionary, but deliverable at scale.”

He said the focus of the ministry will shift decisively to deployment and impact in 2026, stressing that the foundations were laid in 2025.

In a message on his X handle, Tijani noted that with key initiatives approved and partnerships mobilised, the next phase is about execution — expanding connectivity, activating service platforms, deepening talent pipelines, enabling interoperable digital public infrastructure, and translating digital capability into economic growth and improved public services.

While many Nigerians across 4,834 communities are either unserved/underserved, and about 767 local government areas (LGAs) are without active websites, the Federal Government fibre project is designed with seven regional backbone rings covering all six geopolitical zones and Lagos. This architecture ensures high-level network resilience by enabling traffic rerouting in the event of fibre cuts or failures, addressing a chronic operational challenge.

The fibre rollout specifically targets all 774 Local Government Area (LGA) headquarters via points of presence (PoPs), acting as distribution hubs to connect essential services like 38,800 public schools (for e-education) and 16,900 health facilities (for telemedicine), among others.

Emoekpere said the renewed policy focus on fibre infrastructure comes at a time when Nigeria continues to record strong growth in data consumption and broadband adoption, reinforcing telecommunications as the backbone of financial services, e-commerce, education, and digital government services.

Already, The Guardian’s findings showed that to complement 2025 efforts, operators are intensifying investments in Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH), Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), and enterprise connectivity solutions. This is to address the high-demand corridors where mobile broadband alone is insufficient and is aimed at meeting the surging data consumption rates driven by streaming, cloud services, and remote work.

Satellite Revolution: Bridging the digital divide
WHILE fibre is the solution for density, satellite technology, particularly Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and Direct-to-Device (D2D) services, is the game-changer for ubiquity and resilience.

The government has acknowledged that traditional terrestrial networks often fail to reach vast rural, riverine, and border communities due to terrain, insecurity, and high deployment costs. Satellite solutions, including the expansion of the national satellite NigComSat and LEO providers like Starlink (following agreements with operators like Airtel Africa), are the pragmatic bridge to connect an estimated 23 million unconnected Nigerians.

According to Airtel, the satellite-to-mobile service will begin in 2026 with data for select applications and text messaging. This agreement also includes support for Starlink’s first broadband Direct-to-Cell system, with next-generation satellites that will be capable of providing high-speed connectivity to smartphones with 20x improved data speed. The rollout will proceed in line with country-specific regulatory approvals.

Starlink Vice President, Sales, Stephanie Bednarek, said: “For the first time, people across Africa will stay connected in remote areas where terrestrial coverage cannot reach, and we’re so thrilled that Starlink Direct-to-Cell can power this life-changing service. Through this agreement with Airtel Africa, we’ll also deliver our next-generation technology to offer high-speed broadband connectivity, which will offer faster access to many essential services.”

Also, the NCC is prioritising D2D satellite services in its new 2025-2030 roadmap. This technology allows standard mobile phones to connect directly to satellites, eliminating reliance on ground towers in “signal blackspots.”

Further, the Federal Government plans to replace the current national communication satellite, NigComSat-1R, with new High-Throughput Satellites (HTS). These HTS will provide significantly higher bandwidth and speed, positioning NigComSat as a major player in broadband backhaul and media broadcasting (Digital Switch Over).

A telecom expert, Kehinde Aluko, said satellite connectivity is vital for improving network resilience, acting as a critical fallback during fibre cuts or power outages. He further said that LEO satellites are increasingly being used to provide high-speed backhaul for terrestrial mobile towers in remote locations, a more economical solution than laying fibre to every site.

Aluko was, however, quick to say that the challenges for satellite adoption include the relatively high cost of user equipment (terminals) and the need for a regulatory framework that encourages collaboration between MNOs and satellite companies, including shared spectrum usage.

More investments in data centre, AI
To prepare for the surge in data activities ahead of the revolution, the sector is expected to witness an upgrade and deployment of data centres.  

Today, forecasts for data centres and cloud infrastructure remain firmly upward. Multiple market trackers project steady growth through the decade, with estimates suggesting Africa’s data centre investment market could exceed $6.81 billion by 2030, driven by accelerating cloud adoption, expanding subsea capacity, and deeper inland fibre penetration.

Stressing that Nigeria needs more data centres, about 72 to power the $1 trillion economy by 2030, the Chief Executive Officer, Digital Realty Nigeria, Ikechukwu Nnamani, said more collaboration is expected between the public and the private sector.

Nnamani’s proposal underscored an urgent need for decentralisation and a massive expansion of the country’s digital capacity.

The Guardian checks showed that despite being Africa’s largest Information and Communication Technology (ICT) market, over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s data infrastructure is concentrated in Lagos, serving only about 10 per cent of the country’s population.

Nnamani emphasised that this high concentration in Lagos severely limits the country’s ability to achieve true digital competitiveness and deliver inclusive connectivity.
“Lagos houses most of the country’s data infrastructure, yet this represents only 10 per cent of Nigeria’s true digital capacity,” Nnamani stated. “To compete globally and support real-time data processing and service delivery across all state capitals, we need a minimum of 72 edge data centres.”

Calling for investments in AI-ready data centres in the country, Nnamani said Edge data centres are crucial for reducing latency, the delay before a transfer of data begins following an instruction for its transfer, which is vital for real-time applications like e-commerce, digital finance (FinTech), and emerging technologies such as AI.

Securing the sector with CNI enforcement
A Key feature of the 2026 landscape is the expected visible enforcement of the CNI designation for telecom assets. This regulatory action is necessary to protect fibre routes and towers from vandalism and ensure network uptime, which is vital for sustained growth.

The NCC reported over 19,000 incidents of fibre cuts from January to August, while major operator MTN alone recorded over 5,400 cuts by July, with sabotage and road construction cited as primary causes, highlighting a major challenge to national digital connectivity. These frequent cuts, alongside equipment theft, disrupted services and slowed broadband rollout.

Emoekpere said the designation of telecommunications infrastructure as Critical National Infrastructure remains vital, describing it as a strong policy signal that telecom assets are essential to national security and economic stability.

Calling for better enforcement, he said: “The CNI designation laid the groundwork for better protection and coordination and signaled that telecom investments should be treated as national development priorities.”

Amid the efforts from both sides, the delivery challenge for fibre remains the protection of physical assets. Visible enforcement of the “Critical National Infrastructure” designation for telecom assets, protecting routes from vandalism, and harmonizing Right-of-Way (RoW) charges are seen as non-negotiable for 2026’s success.

According to Head Regulatory and PR, FibreOne, Kenny Joda, the NCC has demonstrated commitment through several initiatives, and they deserve commendation. “But to further strengthen the sector, a few actions will be impactful, including enhancing enforcement of CNI protections. Here, stronger penalties for vandalism and deliberate fibre cuts are needed.”