The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are on identical growth projections for Nigeria’s economy, with both forecasting 4.4 per cent expansion in 2026.

Though they differed slightly on the path in 2027, they painted a contrasting picture for the sub-Saharan African region.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook released yesterday projected Nigeria’s GDP growth at 4.4 per cent in 2026 before moderating to 4.1 per cent in 2027. This closely mirrors the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospect published earlier, which maintained the 4.4 per cent forecast through 2027, suggesting marginally higher confidence in Nigeria’s ability to sustain momentum.

Both institutions have revised their 2026 projections upward by 0.2 percentage points from their October 2025 estimates, acknowledging improvements in Nigeria’s economic fundamentals.

The alignment between the two multilateral lenders provides validation for ongoing reform efforts, though both cautioned that significant challenges remain.

The institutions diverged more noticeably in their assessment of regional growth dynamics.

The IMF projects SSA’s economy to expand by 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, up from 4.4 per cent in 2025.

On the other hand, the World Bank offered a more conservative outlook, forecasting a growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027, climbing from four per cent in 2025.

This difference of 0.3 percentage points for 2026 may appear marginal, but it reflects varying assessments of how quickly macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts will translate into sustained economic activity across the continent.

The IMF attributed its optimistic regional outlook in SSA to “macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts in key economies,” while the World Bank emphasises structural bottlenecks that could constrain growth.

Both institutions agree that Nigeria is outperforming regional peers, particularly South Africa.

The IMF forecasts South Africa’s growth at just 1.4 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027, up modestly from 1.3 per cent in 2025.

This performance gap highlights Nigeria’s emergence as a critical growth engine for SSA, despite persistent challenges including security concerns, infrastructure deficits and fiscal constraints.

Nigeria’s projected growth rate is more than three times that of South Africa, reflecting “the different stages of economic development and reform momentum in both economies”.

On global growth, the two institutions presented noticeably different perspectives. The IMF projects worldwide economic expansion at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, describing the global economy as “steady amid divergent forces.”

The World Bank, however, forecast global growth at a more subdued 2.6 per cent for 2026, a difference of 0.7 percentage points that reflects more cautious assumptions about trade dynamics and investment flows.

Both reports identify similar risks that could impact Nigeria’s trajectory. They are trade policy uncertainty, commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions that feature prominently in both assessments.

The IMF noted that oil prices are expected to decline by approximately seven per cent in 2026, while the World Bank projects crude prices falling from $69 per barrel in 2025 to $60 per barrel in 2026, before recovering mildly in 2027.

Declining oil prices, for Nigeria, which is heavily dependent on oil revenues, present a significant challenge from the perspective of the institutions.