Standard Chartered Bank has taken a more cautious position on the outlook for monetary policy easing, saying lingering price pressures have reduced the headroom for a significant rate cut this year.

In its latest investment note released yesterday, the bank revised its forecast for the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) rate cuts this year to 150 basis points, reflecting expectations that inflation will remain more persistent than previously anticipated.

The bank revised its inflation forecast for Nigeria upward, raising its average projection for 2026 to 15.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 12 per cent.

It similarly increased its 2027 inflation forecast to 14.7 per cent from 13.8 per cent.

The revised outlook was contained in a note by its Chief Economist for Africa and the Middle East, Razia Khan, who said lingering price pressures have reduced the room for the CBN to ease monetary policy as quickly as previously anticipated.

Standard Chartered expects a more pronounced easing cycle to begin only after the January 2027 general election, projecting cumulative rate cuts of up to 700 basis points as inflation moderates more decisively.

The renewed pressure on energy prices comes at a critical period for Nigeria’s inflation outlook.

Standard Chartered’s latest projection comes ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics’s (NBS) release of Nigeria’s June inflation data, a key indicator that will shape expectations ahead of the MPC’s next policy meeting on July 21.

The latest consumer price index (CPI) data release is due on Wednesday. In June, the country’s headline inflation was 15.93 per cent, significantly higher than the pre-Iranian crisis level, which was about 15.06 per cent.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East yesterday pushed crude futures to over $75. President Donald Trump’s threats and fresh hostilities around the control of the Strait of Hormuz had pushed Brent to over $80 and WTI to over $75 as at press time.

Fresh concerns about energy prices could disrupt Nigeria’s fragile disinflation trend and complicate the decision at next week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

At its 305th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on May 20, the apex bank retained the MPR at 26.5 per cent, extending its wait-and-see stance after delivering a 50-basis-point rate cut in February.