For Nigeria to attain the $1 trillion economy target by 2030, analysts stated, the country must confront the urgent realities of its present growth trajectory and accelerate reforms that will drive productivity and stability.
According to the analysts at Norrenberger, with just five years left to meet the target, the current pace of expansion, averaging 15 per cent nominally, remains far below what is required.
The experts, in their economic outlook for the second half (H2), argued that to realistically hit the $1 trillion mark, Nigeria would need to sustain nominal growth of at least 22 per cent yearly while ensuring exchange rate stability of or below N1,200/$.
The analysts pointed out that this ambitious goal cannot be achieved by projections alone. Rather, it will demand coordinated and transformative policy action, which requires that both the public and private sectors work hand in hand to deliver structural reforms that will create the foundation for sustainable growth.
Central to this is the need for macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline and a more deliberate strategy for industrialisation, trade expansion and foreign investment inflows.
The analysts cited Indonesia’s growth model, stating that barely three decades ago, the Asian country grappled with similar vulnerabilities as a volatile emerging economy.
However, through a mix of consistent reforms and pragmatic policies, Indonesia transformed into a $1 trillion market, recording an average of nearly nine percent growth yearly over 25 years.
They noted that the Indonesian model was not built on chance but on deliberate measures such as strict exchange rate management, massive investments in infrastructure, robust export diversification, and a comprehensive industrial policy that encouraged local manufacturing and reduced overreliance on imports.
Equally critical to Indonesia’s success was human capital development as the country invested heavily in education, skills acquisition, and healthcare, thereby creating a workforce capable of driving innovation and sustaining competitiveness in global markets.
In addition, strong institutions and a firm anti-corruption drive also played a defining role in building investor confidence and ensuring accountability in public governance.
For Nigeria, it pointed out that replicating such a trajectory would require urgency in policy execution, clear commitment to institutional reforms, and the political will to tackle corruption and inefficiency.
While oil revenues remain significant, the experts argue that the country must diversify aggressively into non-oil sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, technology, and services.
By expanding export capacity, upgrading infrastructure, and fostering a knowledge-driven economy, Nigeria could reposition itself on a faster growth lane.
On the outlook for H2, 2025, the experts cautioned that while Nigeria has witnessed a notable improvement in foreign exchange (FX) inflows in recent months, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain as the country moves into the second half of 2025.
They explained that the recent uptick in inflows has been supported by renewed interest from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), resilient diaspora remittances, as well as a relatively favorable trade and current account position.
However, these positive developments, they warned, may not be enough to shield the economy from mounting pressures in the months ahead. According to the analysts, one of the key factors that could dampen FX inflows is the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) anticipated monetary policy easing.
While such a move is aimed at stimulating domestic economic activity, it could inadvertently reduce the attractiveness of naira-denominated assets to foreign investors, thereby slowing portfolio inflows.
