Cowry Asset Management has called for Nigeria’s economic recovery to become more broad-based, productive and sustainable to improve household welfare, strengthen private investment and create jobs on a scale that matches the country’s rapidly growing population.

The firm said the central challenge was no longer simply whether the economy was recovering, but whether the improving macroeconomic conditions could translate into better living standards, stronger business activity and wider employment opportunities.

In its economic outlook, Cowry Asset Management said Nigeria’s growth prospects were improving, but warned that the gains remained vulnerable to external shocks and domestic political pressures ahead of the 2027 general elections.

According to the firm, maintaining the credibility of ongoing economic reforms would be critical to sustaining the recovery, particularly as global uncertainties, rising debt-service obligations and possible changes in international monetary policy threaten the outlook.

The World Bank projected Nigeria’s economic growth to rise from 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23 per cent a year earlier. Agriculture expanded by 4.39 per cent, up from 2.82 per cent, while services grew by 4.6 per cent and real oil GDP rose 7.3 per cent. Oil contributed 0.2 percentage points to overall growth, while industrial growth slowed to 4.0 per cent from 7.5 per cent.

Business activity strengthened, with the Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 54.3 points in August from 52.5 points in July. Employment expanded for the 15th consecutive month, although hiring remained modest. Financial services, information and communications technology, real estate and agriculture continued to support economic activity, while industrial performance remained uneven.

Inflation is projected to fall from 23.0 per cent in 2025 to 15.7 per cent in 2026 and 12.2 per cent by 2028. However, high food, energy and transportation costs continue to pressure household incomes, particularly among low-income earners. The World Bank warned that tighter global financial conditions, the Middle East conflict, insecurity, climate-related shocks and oil production disruptions could threaten the recovery. Rising pre-election spending ahead of the 2027 elections could also weaken reform momentum.

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to reach 4.3 per cent in 2026, although its impact on poverty reduction may remain limited. The World Bank noted that commodity-led expansion often creates limited employment and household income benefits, underscoring the need for growth supported by productive investment, agriculture and services to improve living standards.

Therefore, Nigeria’s challenge is to translate improved economic indicators into stronger productive investment, employment, and income growth, ensuring the benefits of recovery reach households and businesses across the economy.

Cowry Asset Management stressed that the true measure of Nigeria’s economic recovery would be its impact on ordinary citizens’ lives, rather than growth figures alone. It argued that stronger economic performance must translate into better living conditions, higher incomes and more employment opportunities.

The firm maintained that private investment would be crucial to achieving this objective, as businesses need a stable economic environment to expand operations, increase production and create jobs. Sustained reforms and greater investor confidence would therefore remain important to building a more productive economy.

It also warned that external shocks and domestic political pressures could threaten the progress made so far, particularly as the country approaches the 2027 general elections. Preserving policy consistency and avoiding a reversal of reforms would be essential to maintaining economic stability.