The….. Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has warned that the strengthening El Niño phenomenon could worsen climate-related pressures on agriculture, water resources, public health and livelihoods across West Africa, urging countries in the region to strengthen early-warning and preparedness measures.

The regional organisation, in an advisory issued by its Disaster Operations Centre (EDOC), said the climate phenomenon, which is expected to reach strong to very strong intensity towards the end of 2026, could influence rainfall patterns and temperatures across the region, with potential consequences extending into 2027.

The warning comes as West Africa transitions from the rainy season into the dry and dusty Harmattan period, with ECOWAS noting that rainfall patterns in 2026 have been highly variable, with both surplus and deficit areas recorded, while above-normal temperatures have persisted across much of the region.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It influences atmospheric circulation and can alter weather patterns across different parts of the world, including rainfall distribution and temperatures in West Africa.

Citing the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), ECOWAS said the current episode was firmly established and could become exceptionally strong, with forecasts indicating that it would peak towards the end of 2026 and persist until around February 2027.

Nigeria’s Meteorological Agency (NiMet) had also raised concerns about the developing El Niño, confirming that ocean observations showed the onset of a strong event in 2026. The agency said the phenomenon was intensifying and was expected to influence global climate patterns during the August-October period.

The Commission, however, cautioned that the effects of El Niño would not be uniform across West Africa, as other climate drivers, particularly conditions in the tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean and Indian oceans, could influence its regional impact.

According to the advisory, the phenomenon has frequently been associated with reduced rainfall, prolonged dry spells and higher temperatures in parts of the Sahel and West Africa, although it does not automatically translate into unfavourable seasonal conditions.

The regional body said above-average temperatures were forecast across almost all of West Africa between September and November 2026, citing the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre, while some coastal areas along the Gulf of Guinea could experience intense rainfall and localised flooding during the second rainy season.

On agriculture and food security, ECOWAS warned that late-season dry spells and above-average temperatures could reduce crop yields, soil moisture and pasture availability in affected areas, while localised flooding could damage farmlands and infrastructure.

It said the food security situation would require close monitoring throughout the 2026/2027 season, particularly in communities already vulnerable to climate-related shocks.

The Commission also identified water availability as a major concern, explaining that below-average rainfall and increased evaporation could reduce water reserves, river flows and pasture resources during the dry season.

Such developments, it noted, could increase pressure on agricultural, pastoral, hydroelectric and domestic water supply systems, with implications for livelihoods and economic activities.

ECOWAS further warned that climate-related pressures could aggravate existing socio-economic vulnerabilities in areas affected by food insecurity, population displacement, conflict and economic difficulties, potentially increasing humanitarian needs across the region.

On public health, the advisory identified heat-related illnesses and dehydration as potential risks arising from above-normal temperatures, particularly among children, older persons, pregnant women, outdoor workers and people living with chronic diseases.

It also warned that crop losses, flooding and water scarcity could increase nutritional and disease risks, including malnutrition, cholera and acute diarrhoeal diseases.

The Commission added that stagnant water following heavy rainfall or flooding could create conditions favourable for malaria transmission, while the dry and dusty Harmattan season could increase respiratory illnesses and meningitis risks, particularly within the West African meningitis belt.

To reduce the potential effects, ECOWAS called for continuous monitoring of weather forecasts and early-warning information from national meteorological services, the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and its Disaster Operations Centre.

It also emphasised the importance of using safe drinking water and maintaining preventive measures against malaria and other seasonal diseases, while advising people to remain hydrated, wear light clothing and limit outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day.

For official travel, the Commission recommended checking weather forecasts and road conditions before journeys, avoiding flooded routes and making allowances for possible flight delays.

The advisory also urged the ECOWAS Commission to strengthen occupational health and safety measures, ensure adequate ventilation, cooling facilities and drinking water in offices, and consider flexible working hours during periods of extreme heat.

It further recommended incorporating climate risks into official mission planning, maintaining virtual and hybrid meeting options, and reviewing business continuity arrangements, including backup electricity, water supplies and teleworking facilities.

The Commission called for stronger coordination with host-country authorities and EDOC, alongside timely communication of relevant guidance to staff through official internal channels.

ECOWAS said continuous monitoring of regional and global climate drivers remained essential to producing accurate climate outlooks and strengthening early-warning systems across the region.