Get Guardian on Google“May cause disease outbreaks, heat risks in 2027”
Global economy could lose up to $11 trillion to El Niño, with the climate phenomenon expected to have significant and lasting effects on food security, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has warned.
IFAD gave the warning in a new report, Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile, released at the ongoing COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, in collaboration with the Türkiye Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
The report identified El Niño as one of several overlapping climate and economic shocks increasingly affecting small-scale food producers and rural economies.
It noted that global energy and fertiliser shocks in 2026 had spread across food systems within a single planting season, increasing costs from production and processing to transportation and distribution.
According to the report, the impact has been particularly severe on small-scale farmers, who produce about one-third of the world’s food.
IFAD said the growing frequency and interaction of climate and economic shocks underscored the need for stronger resilience across rural economies, rather than relying on isolated interventions.
It advocated coordinated investments that improve farmers’ access to agricultural inputs and technology, markets and financial services, including credit and weather insurance.
IFAD President, Alvaro Lario, said evidence from the organisation’s investments showed that resilience was stronger when interventions were implemented together.
Lario said where the three areas were addressed together, farmers’ incomes increased by more than 40 per cent, while technology adoption rose by three-quarters.
The report also found that combining interventions could significantly reduce farmers’ losses when climate and price shocks occur simultaneously.
Türkiye’s Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Ibrahim Yumakli, stressed the importance of preparing farmers before climate-related crises occur.
He said farmers’ ability to withstand shocks depended on access to water, affordable inputs, finance, insurance and reliable markets.
IFAD said the findings demonstrated that building resilience required investments that enabled farmers to sustain production during shocks.
Meanwhile, El Niño could intensify heat-related illnesses, disease outbreaks and air pollution into 2027, World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, warned yesterday.
Speaking at a COP31 news briefing in Antalya, Saulo said above-average temperatures could trigger health threats extending beyond direct exposure to extreme heat.
Saulo said the WMO was working with the World Health Organisation to improve communication about weather-related health risks.
It cited preliminary estimates indicating more than 30,000 excess deaths linked to heat waves, drought and wildfires in Europe.
Saulo highlighted preparations underway in South America, including measures to establish emergency shelters ahead of potential flooding.
